Sunday, September 1, 2013

2014: A More Detailed Look at the Opening Day Roster

With the Phillies having virtually no chance at making the playoffs and also the signing of Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez now official at three (3) years, $12MM (reduced from 5-YR/ $48MM)... it is time to look at the 2014 Opening Day Roster a little more closely.


Rotation Candidates:
  • LHP Cole Hamels ($22.5MM AAV)
  • LHP Cliff Lee (if not traded, $24MM AAV)
  • RHP Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez ($4MM AAV)
  • RHP Kyle Kendrick (Last Yr. of Arbitration - est. $8MM)
  • John Lannan (Last Yr. of Arbitration - est. $6.65MM)
  • Free Agent (Halladay at $13.65MM) or for $500k...
    • Tyler Cloyd - may not be on 40-man roster come Rule 5 Day
    • John Pettibone
    • Ethan Martin
    • Adam Morgan
    • Austin Wright
    • Jesse Biddle - I project him to be called up in July.
Bullpen Locks:
  • Closer Jon Papelbon (if not traded, $12.5MM AAV)
  • RHP Mike Adams ($6-7MM)
  • LHP Antonio Bastardo (Second Yr. of Arb. - est. $2.25MM)
Bullpen Candidates:
   *Except for a Free Agent LM/SS, $500k each

  • Long Man/ Spot Starter - Cloyd, Free Agent, or...
    • Ethan Martin
    • Austin Wright
    • B.J. Rosenberg
  • Justin De Fratus
  • Michael Stutes
  • Phillipe Aumont
  • Nefi Ogando - Acquired from Red Sox in McDonald waiver deal. He'll be in A+ or AA in 2014.
  • Luis Garcia
  • Zach Miner
  • J.C. Ramirez
  • Jeremy Horst
  • Jake Diekman
  • Joe Savery
  • Cesar Jimenez
  • Rob Rasmussen - Acquired from  Dodgers in M. Young waiver deal.

  • 1B Ryan Howard ($23MM)
  • 2B Chase Utley ($15MM)
  • SS Jimmy Rollins (unless traded, $11MM)
  • 3B Cody Asche ($500k)
  • Bench:
    • Frandsen?
    • SS-2B Freddy Galvis ($500k)
    • 2B-CF Cesar Hernandez (< $500k)
  • Primary Catcher (Chooch at $4MM?)
  • Erik Kratz (First Year Arb. - est. $1-2MM)
  • In Camp:
    • Rupp
    • Valle
    • Joseph
  • LF-RF Domonic Brown ($525k)
  • CF Ben Revere (First Yr. Arb. - est. $1-2MM)
  • RF-LF-1B Darin Ruf ($515k)
  • OF-1B John Mayberry, Jr. (First Yr. Arb. - est. $1-2MM)
  • Front Office and Coaching Staff, 40-Man Roster Minor League Contracts, Insurance Premiums for long-term contracts, College Scholarships, etc.: > $12.5MM (this will be less than the beginning of this year due to Manuel's firing and another change in the coaching staff under the manager).
  • Primary Catcher
  • Starting Rotation
  • Bullpen Piece?
  • Utility IF/OF that can play CF & 3B - could be a Rule 5 pick
  • Depth signings (players signed to minor league deals with invites to Spring Camp).
Bottom Line:

They have $25MM to fill four to six roster spots despite having six players making $108MM AAV. Nice, huh?! Why the flexibility?
  1. Players earning ML Min. (~$500k each): 7-10 ($3.5-5.0MM total)
  2. Players in Arbitration: 6 ($23MM est. total)
  3. Signings (prev. contracts & free agents) of < $10MM AAV each: Up to 5 players (> $15MM)
  4. Luxury tax threshold rises to $189MM from $178MM.
Scenario: Chooch ($4MM) & Halladay ($13.7MM) re-signed, so we have ~$8MM for ~3 spots. That's still a lot of flexibility.

Next 2014-related entry:

I will probably have a post on line-up projections at some point soon. Hope you enjoy this breakdown!

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