It is hard to call it a promotion or a demotion. I don't like to call it a firing. He is rewarded for his work by staying with the organization. He wanted to stay on as manager though, and in all fairness, he deserved to stay. What this tells me is the Klentak had likely predetermined Pete's fate. It's likely no one would have taken the job though. I'm sure others will be interested if asked to interview.
Pete's job:
Overall, the record is abysmal (.433 record) but that's primarily due to lack of talent on the roster the last few years. Upon taking the job after Sandberg's resignation, it was clear that Pete was a stellar communicator, which mattered more than wins and losses due to a few beloved yet declining Phillies on the roster. And under MacKanin, the Phillies went .500 since the All-Star Break as the young prospects debuted. He's made mistakes and questionable decisions, but what manager doesn't? I'd give him a B+/A-.
Klentak:
It is very poor timing (and so was the extension but I'd have extended him in Spring anyway). I think any manager that has low talent should be given the opportunity to work with better talent. From what I've seen, Pete seemed capable of winning within two years. Now, it's up to you to prove that he wasn't and to be classy about Pete. So far, you're not too classy. For this incident, you get a D.
Evaluating Klentak's moves:
So far, most of your signings haven't worked out. But the kids got an opportunity and that's all that matters. In fact, the kids are taking advantage! What you said two weeks ago and your plan for the off-season is sound. But will you change your approach to the rebuild? Will you start bringing in better players to fill the gaps (bench, bullpen, a few rotation spots)? The Cubs are a great example: homegrown hitting, outside pitching. That seems to be the need here. Also, I think McClure needs to go but that's a decision made after picking a manager. Good luck in the search, but I'm sure someone will want the job - the wild card is possible next year! Grade: B-
Oh yes, my pick for 2018 manager is AAA Manager Dusty Walthan. He knows the kids well!
Saturday, September 30, 2017
Monday, September 25, 2017
2017-2018 Offseason
ADDENDUM - 10:50 PM Tu 11/28: See my post from earlier today for details but my projections were pretty spot-on here: four were protected.
In this post, I project the Opening Day Roster and some of the names on the pre-Rule-5 40-man roster.
Dropped from 40-Man (initially) - double star is 60-day DL (not on 40-man currently):
Catchers:
The offense is set including Kingery coming up mid-year and shuffling around defensively is easy since most players can play at least 2 positions.
It seems inevitable based on the crowded infield (even in Mar/ Apr), crowded 40-man and pitching needs that Franco, Joseph, Galvis and Hernandez are actively shopped. I'll be bold here and say that two of them are gone. Joseph will probably be shopped the most (Hoskins moves to 1B and allows Williams to be in the OF) followed closely by Franco (last chance) and Galvis (Free Agent). At the very least, I think trading Joseph needs to happen to allow the Hoskins-Williams situation to rectify and add a pitcher.
There is only room for Aschelman and two more prospects. I do not have that list. Once the 40-man roster is emptied, I'll either have a new post or edit this one, plus discuss the OD Roster Projections. I don't think we can add via F.A. or Rule 5 this year, but we don't need to if we can trade.
Over/under (a.k.a. number to beat): 83.0 for 2018... thoughts?
Go Phillies!
In this post, I project the Opening Day Roster and some of the names on the pre-Rule-5 40-man roster.
Dropped from 40-Man (initially) - double star is 60-day DL (not on 40-man currently):
- P Appel (non-tender)
- P Buchholtz** (F.A.)
- IF Alvarez
- IF Blanco (F.A.)- might return
- OF Kim (F.A./ release) - aqrd in July trade deadline
- OF Florimon (?)**
- OF Daniel Nava** (F.A.?)
- P Velasquez
- P Therrien
- P Eflin
- P Eichkoff
Catchers:
- Possible Free Agent or Cameron Rupp
- Jorge Alfaro
- Andrew Knapp
- Pitcher
- Catcher
- 1B Joseph
- 2B Hernandez
- 3B Crawford
- SS Galvis
- LF Hoskins
- CF Herrera
- RF Altherr
- OF Williams
- IF Franco
The offense is set including Kingery coming up mid-year and shuffling around defensively is easy since most players can play at least 2 positions.
It seems inevitable based on the crowded infield (even in Mar/ Apr), crowded 40-man and pitching needs that Franco, Joseph, Galvis and Hernandez are actively shopped. I'll be bold here and say that two of them are gone. Joseph will probably be shopped the most (Hoskins moves to 1B and allows Williams to be in the OF) followed closely by Franco (last chance) and Galvis (Free Agent). At the very least, I think trading Joseph needs to happen to allow the Hoskins-Williams situation to rectify and add a pitcher.
There is only room for Aschelman and two more prospects. I do not have that list. Once the 40-man roster is emptied, I'll either have a new post or edit this one, plus discuss the OD Roster Projections. I don't think we can add via F.A. or Rule 5 this year, but we don't need to if we can trade.
Over/under (a.k.a. number to beat): 83.0 for 2018... thoughts?
Go Phillies!
Saturday, September 9, 2017
UPDATED: 2nd Half Going Well, Klentak
UPDATE: The 2018 schedule has been released. Because only the Nationals (and six other NL teams) are above .500 this year, most teams have a fairly easy schedule, especially the NL East. During the first 60 games, the Phillies face teams with 2017 records near or above .500 only 17 times and 40 times total during the first 96 games, which takes us to the All-Star Break. What does this mean for the contention timeline? I discuss that below.
The Phillies were able to trade many of their free-agents-to-be, making room for Nick Williams and giving Ben Lively and others a shot. The team has been doing better with the younger guys up here - 4 games under .500 since the All-Star Break. The younger guys, except Franco, have made Phillies baseball a little more exciting. Earlier this week, GM Matt Kentak discussed the off-season plans: pitching-focused.
Analysis:
It is funny (the odd kind) that we acquired more pitchers than hitters over the last few years of trades (although we drafted ok in both departments) and it is our hitting that stands out in the majors right now.
Hoskins is NL Rookie of the Month for Aug.
Herrera hasn't lost a beat in the month he's been DL'd (hamstring), continued his 20-game hitting streak yesterday in the 11-10 loss to the Nats.
Altherr & Williams have been hitting very well too.
Galvis has played every game this season, starting all of them except yesterday. Of course, I'm a stickler for only 5-6 starts per week as opposed to 6-7, unless on a hot streak. He continues to impress with the glove but his inability to hit better is a problem. The front office thinks Crawford is a better overall player despite his struggles transitioning to AAA.
Tommy Joseph has held his own over his short career and a platoon with Hoskins is possible if Joseph is able to be traded.
Hernandez is hitting .289 w/ a .787 OPS.
Knapp has impressed when healthy.
In the minors, many players have impressed but one (I cannot remember his name) is susceptible to injuries.
All the pitchers up here have shown flashes of dominance but they are only flashes or at least they only just arrived this year.
Around Spring Training time, I said that we'll be good next year if we have 7 guys that can pitch in the rotation. While we kept that depth in terms of # of names (adding Tom Aschelman - the Intl League All-Star Starting pitcher), the overall quality is looking bleak, so it looks like Klentak is right: focus on pitching. We need two starters and they need to be better than the ones we've been signing - worthy of multi-year deals. A bullpen piece or two wouldn't be remiss. And I will discuss the offense here: trading Franco, Galvis, Hernandez, and/ or Joseph will serve two purposes: acquire pitching and allow at least 1-2 of the kids to roam free. As for Franco, I'm ok if he gets one more year to become the franchise 3B by hitting at least .280-.285 (like he did in 2015). The bench will undergo some changes and acquiring a bench piece or even a catcher can't hurt as long as they're not starting more than 2-3 games per week on average.
Unfortunately, what has happened this year has caused me to think about the rebuild. I analyze that it will be delayed at least a year: contend in 2019 and potential to reach World Series in 2020 as opposed to 2018 & 2019 respectively. However, that's not a bad thing and we should not be unexpected by most; it's also worth noting that the following off-season class is better than this one's. But if everything goes right, Wild Card is possible. What are those ifs? (1) The kids don't loose a beat thru the start of 2018 (easier to do facing weak teams 71.67% of the time), (2) Klentak's signings & trades this off-season work and (3) the depth at AAA continues to come up with some success (even half the success we've had this year would do). Recalling the 3 ifs rule from pre-2014, it's looking bleak. Plus, while that may look like 3 ifs, it represents about 30 players throughout the course of next year. I don't think we'll be able to beat the Nats in the NL East next year even if this scenario plays out and if Klentak's Phillies history is any indication, the second if has about a 30% chance of working out.
And my last thought about Klentak's presser is simple: he didn't address whether he'll sign quality guys and on a 2-3-year deal. I hope so. While we don't need an ace yet, we do need something slightly better that we've had. Jeremy Hellickson was consistent in 2016 and into 2017 and his mentoring of the younger guys was invaluable - Thank you, Jeremy! However, we need someone (actually two starters) in the 3.2-3.6-ERA range and I'm not sure if we can get them on 1-year deals (and we need them for slightly longer than that). And that is slightly more disappointing than the delayed rebuild but we'll have our answer soon enough. I just wanted to know.
Congrats, Rhys on your award and others on your promotions. Go Phils!!!
The Phillies were able to trade many of their free-agents-to-be, making room for Nick Williams and giving Ben Lively and others a shot. The team has been doing better with the younger guys up here - 4 games under .500 since the All-Star Break. The younger guys, except Franco, have made Phillies baseball a little more exciting. Earlier this week, GM Matt Kentak discussed the off-season plans: pitching-focused.
Analysis:
It is funny (the odd kind) that we acquired more pitchers than hitters over the last few years of trades (although we drafted ok in both departments) and it is our hitting that stands out in the majors right now.
Hoskins is NL Rookie of the Month for Aug.
Herrera hasn't lost a beat in the month he's been DL'd (hamstring), continued his 20-game hitting streak yesterday in the 11-10 loss to the Nats.
Altherr & Williams have been hitting very well too.
Galvis has played every game this season, starting all of them except yesterday. Of course, I'm a stickler for only 5-6 starts per week as opposed to 6-7, unless on a hot streak. He continues to impress with the glove but his inability to hit better is a problem. The front office thinks Crawford is a better overall player despite his struggles transitioning to AAA.
Tommy Joseph has held his own over his short career and a platoon with Hoskins is possible if Joseph is able to be traded.
Hernandez is hitting .289 w/ a .787 OPS.
Knapp has impressed when healthy.
In the minors, many players have impressed but one (I cannot remember his name) is susceptible to injuries.
All the pitchers up here have shown flashes of dominance but they are only flashes or at least they only just arrived this year.
Around Spring Training time, I said that we'll be good next year if we have 7 guys that can pitch in the rotation. While we kept that depth in terms of # of names (adding Tom Aschelman - the Intl League All-Star Starting pitcher), the overall quality is looking bleak, so it looks like Klentak is right: focus on pitching. We need two starters and they need to be better than the ones we've been signing - worthy of multi-year deals. A bullpen piece or two wouldn't be remiss. And I will discuss the offense here: trading Franco, Galvis, Hernandez, and/ or Joseph will serve two purposes: acquire pitching and allow at least 1-2 of the kids to roam free. As for Franco, I'm ok if he gets one more year to become the franchise 3B by hitting at least .280-.285 (like he did in 2015). The bench will undergo some changes and acquiring a bench piece or even a catcher can't hurt as long as they're not starting more than 2-3 games per week on average.
Unfortunately, what has happened this year has caused me to think about the rebuild. I analyze that it will be delayed at least a year: contend in 2019 and potential to reach World Series in 2020 as opposed to 2018 & 2019 respectively. However, that's not a bad thing and we should not be unexpected by most; it's also worth noting that the following off-season class is better than this one's. But if everything goes right, Wild Card is possible. What are those ifs? (1) The kids don't loose a beat thru the start of 2018 (easier to do facing weak teams 71.67% of the time), (2) Klentak's signings & trades this off-season work and (3) the depth at AAA continues to come up with some success (even half the success we've had this year would do). Recalling the 3 ifs rule from pre-2014, it's looking bleak. Plus, while that may look like 3 ifs, it represents about 30 players throughout the course of next year. I don't think we'll be able to beat the Nats in the NL East next year even if this scenario plays out and if Klentak's Phillies history is any indication, the second if has about a 30% chance of working out.
And my last thought about Klentak's presser is simple: he didn't address whether he'll sign quality guys and on a 2-3-year deal. I hope so. While we don't need an ace yet, we do need something slightly better that we've had. Jeremy Hellickson was consistent in 2016 and into 2017 and his mentoring of the younger guys was invaluable - Thank you, Jeremy! However, we need someone (actually two starters) in the 3.2-3.6-ERA range and I'm not sure if we can get them on 1-year deals (and we need them for slightly longer than that). And that is slightly more disappointing than the delayed rebuild but we'll have our answer soon enough. I just wanted to know.
Congrats, Rhys on your award and others on your promotions. Go Phils!!!
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