Preview of the 2020 Season

The 2020 schedule is an interesting one. A mix of stretches of difficulty because of who their facing and where they're playing. The Phillies will need a strong opening road trip (@ MIA & @ NYM) and will need to take advantage of their home schedule - they need to win or sweep series' at home and avoid getting swept themselves (no more than once every six weeks). One such stretch of home games is ten right after the all-star game and they play a total of 19 on the road and 21 at home after that til the 10th. Those are the critical games. May is also a home-dominated month.

First 4 series (11): 7-4
May (27 games): 14-13 or 15-12
All-star break to 9/10: 31-20

Total in those games: 52-37; 37-36 rest of way = 89-73 and that's definitely a wild card and probably the division.

Of course it doesn't allow for a high margin of error but they won't need it if they stay healthy. I'll preview the roster moves that make this record possible shortly.

Season In Review

It is over. Game 162 ends with a loss. The Phillies won the final series of the season after getting swept out of DC and end the year with the same record as 2012: 81-81. The team scored 774 runs (middle of the majors and top ten in NL) and allowed 794 runs for a differential of 20 in favor of opponents. We allowed 753 ER for an ERA of 4.53 (middle of the majors and fifth highest in MLB - not good).

The turning point this year was the series vs the Dodgers at CBP as the calendar turned to June. Before that series, we were 33-22. Our 4.09 ERA was high but slightly better than the middle of the majors. It was 6th lowest in the NL. We scored 267 runs (4.85 per game) good for middle of majors and 7th highest in the majors. We scored six runs in the first two games of the three game set then McCutchen went down and we lost the finale 8-0.

The series shouldn't have been a turning point. We had enough time to find an internal candidate for the lead-off spot but no one stepped up. We also had several incidents of lack of accountability (no meetings; four hustling incidents plus two other mentions) and certainly there was at least one breakdown in communication (Cesar's punishment) that leads me to believe that Gabe has to go. Not going after pitching also proved a mistake but a justified decision at the time. Now, it's up to Klentak or he's at risk in 2020. Here's the results from games 56 to 162:

A complete reversal in offense & defense and record: 48-59; 507 R scored (we drop from 7th highest to 7th lowest in NL; avg was 4.74/gm); 4.74 ERA (we drop from 6th lowest to 5th highest in NL). We also allowed 5.21 RPG and our -51 run differential in that span took us from +28 after the 55th game to -20 overall.

Our ERA being in the middle of the pack shows that it was not a pitcher's year. Options to fix this include ball manufacture & storage, change in approach, change in strike zone (already been proposed with the change in IBB) and changing the height of the mound. I will not delve any further into the high MLB ERA. As for the Phillies, the pitchers were clearly not effective and there was hindsight to suggest they wouldn't materialize. I still think the decision to be most aggressive on offense (and subsequently defense) was correct and both were on pace to work out after 55 games. At the deadline, the decision to bring bounce-back candidates was also sound but clearly didn't work and that approach must not happen again. Unfortunately, the deadline more pertains to prospects. Phillies had non that were trade-able after the acquisitions of Realmuto & Segura but they could have called Keuchel.

It is also worth noting the team's decisions the last 5-7 years have failed more than 50% of the time, maybe even 80% failure. That is as weird as the last two years of free agency have gone. Here's hoping the team's luck turns around and the right calls are made this offseason and beyond. My next entry will be released soon: Preview of the 2020 Schedule.

Evaluation of the Phillies Season: Offense - No Pitching Entry Coming

The Phillies have been eliminated from post-season contention. In my previous post, I do blame Klentak and Kapler fairly equally but given their contract status, it looks more likely that Klentak will be the one to stay. We shall see. Expect at least some coaching change beyond getting a new hitting coach as Charlie doesn’t want the job in 2020 – thank you for stepping in! Come Oct or Nov 2020, Klentak or MacPhail may be gone. I am not going to grade the pitchers this year given that no one really performed well (even Nola took a step  back).

I wish we could dump almost everyone but Nola but what depth do we have in AAA? Spencer Howard (tremendous AA season), Adonis Medina & Ethan Lindow? I’d love to see at least three more names. Shame. Klentak must spend on pitching this year and Middleton must be open to going over the luxury tax threshold. Hamels (3.92 ERA this year, 3.95 in last 3 yr) still can help us (1-yr $20MM w/ $15MM option or 2-yr $32.5MM?). Not sure if we should trade for someone but if a team wants to take Herrera off our hands for pitching, Klentak should strongly consider it.

Without further ado, it is time to evaluate the team’s (79-78) offensive performance from an individual standpoint. As usual I will go in defensive order (2 C, 3-6 IF, 7-9 OF & a few bench players) and use my usual system (F, D, C, C+, B-, B, B+, A- & A).

Catching

JT Realmuto was the team MVP. He stepped it up offensively during the last two trimesters of the season, being the lone rep in the All-Star Game. With his injury, workload (580 PAs, 5.5 gm/wk  -too much for a catcher), and the team’s status of mot contending, it looks like his .275/.328/.493/.820 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) line with 25 HR, 83 RBI, and 9/10 in SB will be final. Looking at the game logs, he’s only had maybe 3-4 bad games and 2 of them came in the midst of 7-10-day-long slumps. Certainly worthy of Silver Slugger consideration and a few top 5 MVP votes. Defensively, he’s been consistent year-round. He cut down the most runners in all of MLB and is one of the better game-callers & pitch framers in MLB. His defensive prowess only adds to his case for MVP votes. I agree with Harper that if JT does not get a Gold Glove, then the award truly is a joke. I also think JT deserves the Platinum GG (given to the best defender in each league) and it should be one of Klentak’s highest priorities to extend JT. It will be up to Kapler or the next manager to give him a few more days off/ DH games in interleague play so that he can last (and of course perform) thru the length of that contract. Grade: A-/ A (94%); STAY!!!

Knapp was seldom-used. His 140 PAs so far and my projection of 165 ( JT’s injury), is very low for even a back-up catcher. More PAs would have helped him stay fresh offensively but he is not, nor ever was, projected to be a starter, even on a mediocre team. If Klentak can find a serviceable back-up to JT, great. It is not a high priority. Grade: C (73%); go if possible

Infield

1B Hoskins: Oh he has some work to do. Fell off a cliff with everyone else. Eighty-plus (80) RBIs, >120 combined BB+HBP and 30 HRs is nothing to frown at but the inconsistency needed work long before this year. His BABIP & K-rate are consistent from last year. If he puts in the same work this winter as Kingery did last winter, lord help any team facing Rhys in 2020. Grade: C+/B- (79%)

2B Hernandez: Oh, one of the biggest non-hustlers on the team but our top hitter or on-base guy from year-to-year. I give him a C+ (76%). He’s now crossed into under-performing his arbitration value territory. However, his skills are necessary at the 6 or 7 spots in the line-up. It’s a dilemma but not too tough a decision.

3B Franco: Oh the demotion. Oh the inconsistency. Oh the lack of versatility. But the defense! Once a touted prospect coming up, he has yet to hit .270 or better in consecutive years. The demotion was a surprise but probably deserved. His treatment by Kapler really wasn’t deserved. Demotion had no effect on his performance. Grade: C (72%); Bye!

SS Segura: Gosh darn-it you need to hustle! Ok, that’s out of the way. We got him to not strike out so did he succeed: 12% of PAs, so he did! Nearly a career low in Ks actually. I would’ve put him 6^th in the line-up with his low-K rate but he did the job and the K rate didn’t vary much with leverage (although it climbed to 14% with runners on). Would’ve liked to see more BB & SB, too. Grade: C+/ B- (78%). Stay for three months then reevaluate based on hustle.

Bench: Kingery (B+/ 87%) had a great bounce-back year, just a bit more consistency needed. The rest of the bench was inconsistent.

Next year: C: JT & (Knapp or other); 1B: Hoskins; 2B: Kingery; 3B: Galvis (please bring him back), SS: Segura. IF bench needs improvement.

Outfield

The only one to grade is Harper: not a bad first year but not amongst the best he could have. Excellent in high leverage and clutch situations. Needed to help carry the offense. Grade: B (84%). I’m looking for more hitting in lower leverage situations.

I’m very pumped for the OF depth in S.T. next year. McCutchen and Harper get two spots w/ Kingery able to play here as well (I’m hoping 2B mostly) followed by Bruce, Williams (can we get him some more PAs?), Quinn (good speed when healthy but I’ll take it), Haseley, possibly Herrera plus I’m hoping we can re-sign Dickerson.

Overall Score

You may have noticed that I was being lenient against how bad they performed overall vs. expectations. You are correct. The avg is a B- (81.5%). The front office and coaches get some blame and the pitching was terrible. Factor in the blame I assigned in my last post, we get a 75% (C).

Back to the offense: I did a projection based on the “stay category” plus minor improvements for everyone, especially for those where injuries held them back. The result: 86% (maybe 87%). Applying half of that improvement to 157 games results in 82-83 wins with five to go, which would at least tie us with the Mets and Cubs. Add a .500 record in the last 5 games and we’re at 84-87 wins.

And that’s not considering the team was 33-22 after the first 55, which is a 94-win pace in 157 games – 2-4 gms back of the Braves right now but we’ll lower it to 2 because I project a better head-to-head record (yes we already won the season series). Factor in Alec Bohm, too. Now, all I ask is to salvage one win in this current Nats series and to win this weekend’s series vs. Marlins for an 82-80 record.

Awards

Recognition for their 2019 seasons should be high for JT as I mentioned but Haseley, Kingery, Nola, Harper, Neris (80-85 SV%, 2.97 ERA) and Alvarez & Suarez (3-3.5 ERA in ~50 IP each), and Dickerson (.300 AVG, .900 OPS w/ PIT & PHI) may get some consideration for the lesser known awards. Many of our guys are up for at least a resiliency award in 2020: Irvin, Nola, Arrieta, McCutchen, Herrera, and Hoskins are just a few names plus our entire bullpen (injuries). Some, of course, may not get the award as Phillies.

Enjoy the winter. Should be a suspenseful off-season at first. That excites me.

Also of note, the defense improved this year and slightly more than expected. Still had a few rough games but excellent overall!

Evaluation of the Phillies 2019 Season - Front Office Edition

Well this season is not going according to plan. Of course, that's typical of baseball. However, this is not just baseball being baseball: Things should have gone better especially within a few games of McCutchen's injury. Despite their struggles, the team is 2.0 games back of the wild card with 20 to play. The Cubs are in control but Arizona, Milwaukee, and the Mets are within four games - that's one good series away from leading the pack. The Nats currently hold a 3-game lead for the top spot. My prediction for the Phillies is barely out of the playoffs come game 162 but an 85-77 record (five more wins than last year), again not what we envisioned after signing Harper and doing so well to start the year. It cost John Mallee. Who's next in terms of coaches and front office? I outline that here.

Middleton

He got Bryce, extended MacPhail & Klentak and pushed for Mallee’s firing but those moves aren’t working out. He does pay attention to the fans’ input and did have the foresight to rebuild after 2012 (and pushed Amaro to start the process  out) but he delayed telling us about the extensions and was extremely slow to react to us in the Mallee situation. I don’t think any sort of change in ownership should be mandated by MLB but the accountability has to improve. Grade: C+/B- (79.5%)

MacPhail

All I can say is he has been largely absent from the view of fans outside his two pressers. Another presser was needed for sure. Given his extension and his role largely being invisible anyway, I’m ok with keeping him but no more extensions. Grade: F+ (58%)

Klentak

Ultimately relying solely on the offense to carry our team was a mistake but a decision that could have gone either way given the need for flexibility at the trade deadline. He acquired a lot of guys recently and they’ve helped keep the team afloat better than the Opening Day crop of starters. Injuries, of course, really hurt the bullpen this year but If I were to tell you (at the beginning of his tenure) that every one of Klentak’s signings (Bryce was Middleton’s) would be a disaster, I would be laughed at. Yes, I’ll give him a little credit for setting up the Harper signing. But what are the odds of injuries and poor performance, especially these players? No, I have no qualms with how careful he was during F.A. but his dugout coaching decisions were awful. Hiring Kapler was the worst mistake he made (20/10 vision based on Gabe’s previous [lack of] coaching experience/ success). Firing MacKanin may have been worse but at the very least, he was fired a year too early.

No more extensions, especially with Mike Trout essentially an Angel for life. Matt MUST demote Kapler to a front-office assistant or fire him altogether. Will that occur? There’s no guarantee but the odds increased a few weeks ago and the move MUST happen. I’ll then give Matt two years to get this team up and running (coaching staff) but the roster MUST make the postseason next year. Yes, the 2020 roster (2019 + Klentak cleaning it up a bit) can make the postseason on their own. We won’t know how far they can go until we have at least a year of the new manager. Grade: F (50%)

Kapler

You knew where I stand based on my evaluation of Klentak. Gabe seldom uses the eye test. His players are out of touch with him (a la the recent Cesar Hernandez punishment). And there’s no knowing how far he can take this team if it makes the postseason this year or next. I’m willing to bet he doesn’t make the Fall Classic nor manage or coach a team again once he’s fired (outside shot of being a strength/ conditioning coach) but that’s his fault. Grade: F- (40%)

Roster & Coaches

The rest of the roster will be evaluated more closely toward the end of the season but I have some preliminary thoughts. I’d say Hernandez & Franco go and Segura stays at least a year. Bruce is under contract - KEEP HiM HERE!!! Gotta extend Realmuto with Knapp getting one more year. Not sure about the bullpen or rotation (demotions coming mostly). That’ll be addressed in F.A. Unfortunately, we’re stuck with Arietta but we could add Hamels. Definitely need some players in the minors to step up next year, which will give me a lot more hope for 2021 in addition to 2020. AA Reading won their division so I’m thinking that scenario will occur.

Manuel probably won’t want to stay on. The bullpen coach was dealt a bad hand with the injuries so he can stay but Young’s mound visits didn’t make a difference most of the time. Send him out. I think Dusty should be the next manager. He’s ready now (would’ve been ready this year if Matt had given MacKanin another year). The strength and conditioning philosophy all the way down needs to be reevaluated with all the injuries and inability of our pitchers to pitch deep into games. Does this require a change in S&C staff? Maybe. Most important is to extend some of these bullpen guys from the day they are signed (the month or so after the draft).