Spring training 2020 started normally. COVID19 was just starting
to make its way into the US as US Citizens in COVID-ridden countries were
allowed back into the states. Three weeks after ST started, it was shut down.
The minor league season was shut down and despite MLB starting back up again in
June/ July, only about 30 or so top prospects got to play. The ripple effect of
COVID19 will certainly be felt in the next few seasons. Draft, new CBA (with
the new rules that were implemented for COVID and in prior years), profit-sharing,
lost year of development in not only MiLB, but also in some colleges and high
schools where MLB teams scout (they couldn’t scout after mid-March), lost
revenue, etc. But I will focus on how
MLB will look in 2021
No doubt about it. I think a full or nearly-full season
will occur. Plan would be for 162 but 152 games planned (95%) may be acceptable
and if there is a problem, teams could play 97.5% of the season (so 3-6 games
missed at the most) and utilize winning percentage. Tie-breaking games for
postseason qualifications can return to the fray (if all teams in a tie make
the postseason, a tie-breaking game is probably not an option). So, what will
this look like?
1.
Same rules in 2021 as 2020 except full 9-inning
double-headers, relief rule should be limited to two batters and only 6-7
postseason slots per league. Most of the rules should stick in 2022 (2-batter
back to 3-batter) but a new CBA will occur. Enforcement of social distancing rules
in games is a MUST. IMO, it wasn’t done enough:
Teams and players that take risks that lead to positive tests like the Marlins
did this year should be punished… decisions on postponement or yes, forfeit, should
be left up to the umpiring crew and each teams’ manager. I don’t think a bubble
is feasible for 8-9 months (9 = postseason) but rules of mask-wearing; prevent going
to parties; keeping teams separate; interviews done with masks, distance or headsets;
making sure those with positive test results are masked up as much as possible:
celebration pics are an exception – perfect game, no-hitter, clinching games
and postseason (no walk-offs) – but only for the duration of the pic and the
infectee should be on the edge of the pic and facing slightly away from their
teammates.
2.
I think fans can be in stands. Obviously, there
would be a limit based on % of capacity (I’m hoping it’ll look like 2-3 households
per section) and availability of staff (# of sections available) with
mask-wearing unless eating. However, this will not start – for most teams –
until about a month into the reg. season as we come out of winter. Also
slightly in our favor is the new vaccines scheduled to be released next year.
I take this opportunity to congratulate
Pfizer, et. al. on their announcement of 90% effectiveness. I personally will
not take their or any vaccine unless at least a representative sampling of 100k
people (regions, age, genders, race, lifestyle habits) have taken it, which is
usually in the form of stage 3 clinical trials. I think the FDA will insist on those
trials since pre-manufacturing research was based primarily on SARS (96% genetically
similar to COVID, which is why the disease is sometimes referred to as SARS-nCov-2).
But I do ultimately plan on getting the vaccine within a year of its release.
Again, it’ll require at least two doses.
3.
I was against the 5-round draft. At the same
time, it is hard to find someone beyond round 20. Of course there are
exceptions like Mike Piazza. I am in favor of a draft that looks like the
pre-covid era but limited to 25 rounds (40 was the limit prior). I still like
the bonus limits.
