Franco was suspended by the Dominican team for one game for partying too long: he and three others stayed at a party into the morning hours on a game day. Despite this and even despite his recent $2MM payout form 2018, I'm sure this is the last year for him to show he deserves to stay as his numbers the last three years haven't lived up to the .280 avg in his short rookie year (80 games due to May call-up & HBP injury).
The Pirates traded Gerritt Cole to the World Champs Astros for four MLB- or AAA-level prospects, including the Astros' #5 & #13 prospects. The trade market is set. While the Phillies could have topped this trade, I agree with PhilliesNation.com that only two years of team control could have turned them off. Rays' Archer and others mentioned as trade candidates are controlled for 3 years or more, which is more ideal to the Phillies.
Monday, January 15, 2018
Honoring The Past, Possibly The Future
There are two ways the Phillies honor their players and coaches: Wall of Fame and retiring numbers. A player can be eligible on the WoF if they spent four years on the team (sometimes called the Thome rule). They can honor individuals or a group of players. As for retiring numbers, the Phillies adopt MLB guidance as policy: Hall of Famers only. Considering the team lost 10,160 games in its history along with that policy and it's no surprise they retired only 5 players (three wore numbers), remembering that 42 (Jackie Robinson) is retired by MLB & doesn't count toward the Phillies' five. So how should they honor the 2005-2012 teams that went 727-569 (.561) with five NL East titles, two pennants, and a World Championship?
I do have to start in the past: while these two did not contribute to the NL East dynasty, they deserve recognition through retirement. player, manager, coach and special assistant Larry Bowa (#10) and slugger Dick Allen (#15), the latter having at least a RoY, good numbers, and - new stat - an avg. HR distance in the top three. He'll probably get in but that won't be for another 2-4 years.
Before I go into the top honors, I do think the policy should change. This would put retirement as top honors with individual WoF being second and team WoF being third but still a great honor.
This year will be the tenth anniversary of the 2008 World Championship -OR- 2008-2009 Pennants While some players from that team are still playing, I think the team can find a good time for those players to return for the unveiling of a plaque for that team, especially if Cole Hamels is the only one playing. Eventually, those that were on at least two but more likely three of the teams responsible for the NL East era will be honored on a team plaque. That would have to wait until at least next year, possibly 2020. Thanks to Pat Burrell and Charlie Manuel's individual WoF inductions, I, at least, can wait. And what an honor it would be to appear on both plaques let alone just one.
And back to retirement, here are those definitely deserving:
I do have to start in the past: while these two did not contribute to the NL East dynasty, they deserve recognition through retirement. player, manager, coach and special assistant Larry Bowa (#10) and slugger Dick Allen (#15), the latter having at least a RoY, good numbers, and - new stat - an avg. HR distance in the top three. He'll probably get in but that won't be for another 2-4 years.
Before I go into the top honors, I do think the policy should change. This would put retirement as top honors with individual WoF being second and team WoF being third but still a great honor.
This year will be the tenth anniversary of the 2008 World Championship -OR- 2008-2009 Pennants While some players from that team are still playing, I think the team can find a good time for those players to return for the unveiling of a plaque for that team, especially if Cole Hamels is the only one playing. Eventually, those that were on at least two but more likely three of the teams responsible for the NL East era will be honored on a team plaque. That would have to wait until at least next year, possibly 2020. Thanks to Pat Burrell and Charlie Manuel's individual WoF inductions, I, at least, can wait. And what an honor it would be to appear on both plaques let alone just one.
And back to retirement, here are those definitely deserving:
- Manuel 41
- Rollins 11 - longest-tenured Philly and #1 hits
- Utley 26 - tenure and very high value (higher WAR than Howard or Rollins)
- Ruiz 51 - tenure and the ability to block balls, call a game and later on, hit; also 4 no-nos caught!
- Hamels 35 (obviously after he quits) - tenure, post-season MVP 2008, combined and CG no-nos
- Thome, 25 - 100+ HRs with the team
- Halladay 34 - de facto retirement and individual WoF since he had the no-hitters & 2nd Cy Young w/ Phila. and he's probably going to the Hall next ballot. Rest in Peace and thank you!!!
- Rolen, 17 (uh oh - Hoskins!) - 7-yr tenure & RoY; good production overall
- Werth, 28 - left too early but he was integral in getting us those pennants
- Abreu, 53 - just like Rolen, led us to contention; like Allen, underrated (but Allen is more underrated); .921 OPS in NINE (9)! years with the Phillies.
- Howard 6 - I don't advocate for retirement but individual WoF is probably a must. His OPS+ after signing the extension was ~95 close to league avg. We'd have accomplished lots less w/o him.
- Lidge 54 - probably not but that 2008 season - wow!
- Madson, 46 - tenure & 2008
- Victorino 8 - tenure & 2008
- Meyers, 39 - 2008-9
- Blanton, 56 - probably not but that HR & win in Game 4 of the 2008 World Series!
- Moyer, 50 - hometown kid, 2008, broadcaster
- Stairs, 12 - 2008 NLCS HR, broadcaster, hitting coach
- Lee, 33 - had he not been traded he'd have probably been in the definites!
- Pat Burrell, 5 - #1 draft pick, 2008, etc.
- Lopes, 15 - baserunning success (a rarity that I will recommend a coach)
- Dubee, 30 - pitching coac
Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Projecting the Win Total
The Phillies have been fairly active in signing players now that their coaching staff is set. They signed 1B Carlos Santana to a 3-yr deal and added two two-year commitments to the bullpen: Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek. They are now working on their biggest need: quality starting pitching. I am concerned but not yet worried. They'll find the guys they need. In the meantime, they will rely on the following to overcome any rotation issues: (1) adequate defense, (2) an already-was-good-but-now-bolstered offense, (3) two hitting coaches, (4) an 8-man bullpen, (5) sports science, and (6) a "no-rules clubhouse". Interesting. I'll discuss the coaches' influence, how the line-up & short bench will fair in the field and at the plate then discuss the pitching.
Coaches
As I previously discussed this is a relative unknown. I think that players' development this year will matter more than the staff although the coaches have to maximize player production. I think the staff will do well in that category. Another aspect is communication and Kepler has already met most of his players over the late fall, discussing their initial role with them. It's all on the players to run with the advice they get (I'm looking at you Maik). Therefore, I see the staff leading us to at least that 80-win mark probably slightly higher.
Offense/ Line-Up
C: All is good here offensively - this and 3B is weak but we have others to help there. Same with defense - blocked balls and throwing out base-stealers. As for calling a game, that is a weak point that could be addressed by Klentak through FA or trade. I give this position a pass overall.
1B - Santana: Wow, what a surprise that was! I like it: skills of a 3-hole hitter and a hot streak could put him at 2, 4 or 5!
2B: Hernandez for most of the year adding Kingery sometime during the first half. Looking good.
3B: This is a make-or-break year for Franco and he'll probably have to do it in more of a bench role than previous years. This is barely a pass but line-up depth will help.
SS: Galvis is gone so defense will take a slight hit but Crawford is the better overall player.
OF: The streaky Hoskins will get most of the playing time in left. Herrera stays in center. Altherr looks to get the bulk of the playing time as the fourth outfielder. Williams, Cozens, Quinn add depth but most of the PAs go to Rhys, Herrera and Altherr. Defense is ok in left, great in center (good work Odubel!), and decent in right. Injuries (Altherr, Quinn) and a four-man bench will allow for adequate playing time for all the OFs plus one could still be traded. Also, if Cozens doesn't start decreasing his strike-out rate, he'll end up racking up the ~$4 one-way tolls on the NE Extension.
Post-AS-Break, the RPG was 4.77 - that's just under 775 runs over 162 games! Not sustainable over a full season but the depth and skill should get them to at least 725 runs (just under 4.5 per game) - perfect! Defense WAR per Baseball-Reference last year was -3.5 runs. I only buy the minus and do think the fielding will be a tad worse than last year. Now, will the offensive production exceed the pitching ERA?
Bullpen
With 8 men here, so far so good. They will have to work at least 2-3, with an avg of at least 4, IP/game thanks to most of the back-end starters going 5 IP/start. I think this group, if used properly (MacKanin did not), can pitch to a 3.67 ERA.
Rotation
Nola will get the opportunity to pitch complete games although I think he'll only succeed 2-3 times this year. Velasquez will get one more shot in the rotation. I like Pivetta but he'll have to start in the minors. Eickhoff could bounce back. Eflin will get a shot. Lively is still in the mix. Most of those will only go two turns through the line-up before the 'pen takes over. If they show themselves capable then they'll probably get more but it'll be up to the 'pen to hold leads which I think we'll get. We add Eshelman to the mix and unlike many of the others, he'll be out there through that 3rd or 4th turn through the line-up. I'm looking forward to seeing his debut. I'd say the rotation is at 4.75 ERA now and 4.5 when they sign/ trade for guys.
The rotation will be out for 5.1-6.2 innings and the bullpen 3-5 - I assume 10 extra-inning games. Do the math, and overall pitching ERA is 4.3, which is under the offense RPG by ~0.2. The difference will likely be bigger!
Ultimate Conclusion
We're at around .500 w/ coaches, offense RPG > team ERA, defense is weak but balanced out by the offense. I'd say 83 wins. No division nor getting the wild card but being short of it by 3-5 games will be remarkable. Also, the Phillies (and other NL East teams) have a very weak schedule in the first half. If we don't take advantage, we're definitely going to struggle to make the postseason this year.
How do we take advantage? Win one-run games, which will really show the coaches' skill. When do I evaluate that? After game 54. If we're 2-above-.500 with no more than 8 one-run losses, I'll likely increase the win total. That's also a good benchmark for checking in with the AAA team (Kingery, Eshelman, etc.).
Coaches
As I previously discussed this is a relative unknown. I think that players' development this year will matter more than the staff although the coaches have to maximize player production. I think the staff will do well in that category. Another aspect is communication and Kepler has already met most of his players over the late fall, discussing their initial role with them. It's all on the players to run with the advice they get (I'm looking at you Maik). Therefore, I see the staff leading us to at least that 80-win mark probably slightly higher.
Offense/ Line-Up
C: All is good here offensively - this and 3B is weak but we have others to help there. Same with defense - blocked balls and throwing out base-stealers. As for calling a game, that is a weak point that could be addressed by Klentak through FA or trade. I give this position a pass overall.
1B - Santana: Wow, what a surprise that was! I like it: skills of a 3-hole hitter and a hot streak could put him at 2, 4 or 5!
2B: Hernandez for most of the year adding Kingery sometime during the first half. Looking good.
3B: This is a make-or-break year for Franco and he'll probably have to do it in more of a bench role than previous years. This is barely a pass but line-up depth will help.
SS: Galvis is gone so defense will take a slight hit but Crawford is the better overall player.
OF: The streaky Hoskins will get most of the playing time in left. Herrera stays in center. Altherr looks to get the bulk of the playing time as the fourth outfielder. Williams, Cozens, Quinn add depth but most of the PAs go to Rhys, Herrera and Altherr. Defense is ok in left, great in center (good work Odubel!), and decent in right. Injuries (Altherr, Quinn) and a four-man bench will allow for adequate playing time for all the OFs plus one could still be traded. Also, if Cozens doesn't start decreasing his strike-out rate, he'll end up racking up the ~$4 one-way tolls on the NE Extension.
Post-AS-Break, the RPG was 4.77 - that's just under 775 runs over 162 games! Not sustainable over a full season but the depth and skill should get them to at least 725 runs (just under 4.5 per game) - perfect! Defense WAR per Baseball-Reference last year was -3.5 runs. I only buy the minus and do think the fielding will be a tad worse than last year. Now, will the offensive production exceed the pitching ERA?
Bullpen
With 8 men here, so far so good. They will have to work at least 2-3, with an avg of at least 4, IP/game thanks to most of the back-end starters going 5 IP/start. I think this group, if used properly (MacKanin did not), can pitch to a 3.67 ERA.
Rotation
Nola will get the opportunity to pitch complete games although I think he'll only succeed 2-3 times this year. Velasquez will get one more shot in the rotation. I like Pivetta but he'll have to start in the minors. Eickhoff could bounce back. Eflin will get a shot. Lively is still in the mix. Most of those will only go two turns through the line-up before the 'pen takes over. If they show themselves capable then they'll probably get more but it'll be up to the 'pen to hold leads which I think we'll get. We add Eshelman to the mix and unlike many of the others, he'll be out there through that 3rd or 4th turn through the line-up. I'm looking forward to seeing his debut. I'd say the rotation is at 4.75 ERA now and 4.5 when they sign/ trade for guys.
The rotation will be out for 5.1-6.2 innings and the bullpen 3-5 - I assume 10 extra-inning games. Do the math, and overall pitching ERA is 4.3, which is under the offense RPG by ~0.2. The difference will likely be bigger!
Ultimate Conclusion
We're at around .500 w/ coaches, offense RPG > team ERA, defense is weak but balanced out by the offense. I'd say 83 wins. No division nor getting the wild card but being short of it by 3-5 games will be remarkable. Also, the Phillies (and other NL East teams) have a very weak schedule in the first half. If we don't take advantage, we're definitely going to struggle to make the postseason this year.
How do we take advantage? Win one-run games, which will really show the coaches' skill. When do I evaluate that? After game 54. If we're 2-above-.500 with no more than 8 one-run losses, I'll likely increase the win total. That's also a good benchmark for checking in with the AAA team (Kingery, Eshelman, etc.).
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