Right before Spring Training

With the latest news of the trade for Realmuto & signing Nola to an extension and workouts beginning soon, the Phillies' offseason has officially ended - wait... What about Harper or Machado or others discussed in the media? They are now going to be like Arrieta last year - Spring signees.

Moves:

Phillies got OF McCutchen, C Realmuto, SS Segura and agreed to arbitration with - I think it was - 10+ players (including the deal with Nola - effectively $6MM this year with base + bonus and $8MM in second year makes this team friendly) and they did submit offers to the top free agents (reports are that the offers from all teams were much lower than expected but no specifics given) - we just have to wait. No left-handed starter nor additional bullpen help. However, they could still sign some folks in the early part of S.T., and they still have Hunter & Nicaso in the 2nd year of deals. They sent a few guys over in those trades - most notably Santana for Segura, allowing a better defense with Hoskins at 1B. Good depth in outfield and some depth at infield (either one could drastically improve/ trade of some of the arb players may be required if they sign Harper or Machado). Lots of names in the pitching category - quantity > quality this year. Not much depth at catcher with Alfaro gone but Knapp here.

Summary: Machado's comments haven't been well-received in Philly but at least we know going in... I'd welcome either of the two. Realmuto, Segura and even McCutchen give us hitters... walking is nice but hits are what drive in those runners. We didn't get a lefty starter or more outside bullpen help but the latter may still occur. This was a good off-season. Grade: B-. If we sign more, I'll revise the grade in another post.

Prospects:

They had to send over P prospect Sixto Sanchez for Realmuto so we'll see how that plays out in coming years. The Phillies publicly put the 20-year-old's work routine down, so if you're not going to be a bit more classy, then send him off - best of luck, Sixto! While we drafted well and Lehigh Valley ended last year with a .600 winning percentage, I don't see many call-ups that can help. Non-roster invitees and those on the 40-man are it for our internal depth - only Kimbrel, Moustakas, Harper and Machado can change the look.

Predicting the record:

This is a tough one without Harper or Machado. Let's try it:

• Rough end to last year -> not the lessons to learn but it was never about getting to the playoffs last year. They should avoid a long stretch of constant loosing. No effect.
• Schedule -> bit tougher this year but they did win in the third month last year, which was a great test against the NL Central. Little to no effect expected.
• Defense -> it was ugly last year and much improved this year but performance-wise despite Arietta & "shift-gate" but not much effect this year (half a game improvement)
  
  So far, we've added maybe a win.
  
  
• Rotation -> We don't have the depth to last the year if we have a lot of injuries. Assuming Nola & Arrieta (knee issue) perform on par with or better than last year and two of the next three spots get us through the 6th inning, we'll be ok. Let's subtract a half-win to account for low depth.
• Bullpen -> Add a win to account for decent depth. Pitching overall is +0.5 wins but could be +2 wins if the rotation performs like much of last year in terms of low injury count and high reliability from the younger starters.
• Offense -> we have a more balanced approach with Segura, McCutchen, Realmuto and Hoskins able to hit and improved play from Kingery vs Franco and OBP guys Hernandez (broken ankle most of last year) and Herrera. Depth here could change but right now, add four wins (Moustakas adds one (1) win and if we add Harper or Machado, add 2.5 to 3.5 wins).
  
  So far +5.5 wins (84-86 wins and 76-78 losses)
  
• Kapler -> if he didn't do the micromanaging moves last year, we'd be mathematically viable til game ~160 last year. Some moves were justified but most were not and if that's the case this year, we're in for a rough ride. This will be the secondary deciding factor.

It looks like we have two camps depending on Kapler and each camp has up to 5 wins of variability due to Klentak. Best-case could be 99 wins but that's a huge jump. I'd say our ceiling with Mach. or Harper, good Gabe and depth lasting the year is 94 wins. Our floor is 79 without Mach or Harper, depth doesn't last, and Gabe is bad but the likelihood of progression from most guys puts our floor at 82-80 and our most likely to be 84-88 with inside track on 90. My call: 84-78. I will revise in the aforementioned separate post as signings occur and the roster takes shape.