Manny Machado will spend at least the first two years of his potential HoF career out of the postseason, but the now former Oriole is used to that and now makes just over $1.15MM per paycheck. Harper is still unsigned and the rumors continue to swirl - now it's the Dodgers getting [back?] in on the action. I think he gets to the Phillies for 33MM/ yr over probably ten years but lots of details still in the works. Last year at this time, Jake Arietta signed for what could be 3 yr/ $75MM instead of 7 yr/ $120MM+. Alex Rodriguez recently chimed in on the long free agency and Cardinals Pitcher Adam Wainwright fears a mid-season walk-out.
On negotiations with Harper
I'd go with $32.5MM AAV for nine years (age 26-34) with opt-out after five years. If he decides to stay, he gets $5MM, and then then the options: $25MM or $5MM buyout at 550 PAs last year (or 475 & 625 PAs last two years) or $20MM mutual option at lesser amt of PAs. Boras is trying to get a 3-yr opt out and that actually may work in the Phillies favor long term: age 29-31 seasons may be the only time we contend. If we get Trout (unlikely but not rare either), we could contend longer - great bargaining chip to use on Harper and we then have two star outfielders (both former first-round picks BTW) for 2022. Harper & Trout in their primes together for at least 2 years. If we don't get Trout, we could still renegotiate with Harper or let him walk (we must be developing - cannot have a repeat of 2012-2017). In the former case, I am reminded of A-Rod's 10-yr/ $275MM contract, but that time, we'll probably do another opt-out after 3 years. At least, that's what I'd offer. In all likelihood, I'll be fine with 10-11 guaranteed with a player opt-out and the 25/20/5 option for one (maybe 2) years after the end of deal. Mutual buyout after 6 years could also work. I think both sides will be happy money & options/ opt-outs wise.
On CBA, free agency and player payment
Let's ignore that these star players make too much already and talk about how much control teams have for most in their primes (6 years before free agency) and how arbitration undervalues many of these players. Too much control, too much undervalue (look at Nola's recent negotiations) when these players would make 2-3 times as much on the free agent market. In my humble opinion, I'd favor one less year of control and arbitration a year earlier (so an avg of 1.5-2 yr of ML minimum instead of 2.5-3 yr) in exchange for signing deadline: Teams must submit proposal (options, opt-outs, and base salary - obviously would be based on negotiations) to FAs & MLB office by 4:30 PM ET 2/10 and the players must pick (sign offer sheet) and notify team & MLB by 1:30 PM ET 2/14. They could sign sooner, but once they do, a physical must be performed by 2:30 PM ET (submit results or certificate of completion to MLB by 4:30 PM that day) the 3rd day (e.g. sign 2/14, physical due 2/17; sign 2/11, physical due 2/14). Quite frankly, I'm getting tired of all the back and forth from teams on Harper.
On the possible lockout?
I do not think the players will walk out this year but sometime next year if more star FAs are unsigned in February, expect a strike that year.
If any news comes of Harper or any renegotiations of CBA, I'll provide an opinion. Enjoy the games!
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