UPDATE: The 2018 schedule has been released. Because only the Nationals (and six other NL teams) are above .500 this year, most teams have a fairly easy schedule, especially the NL East. During the first 60 games, the Phillies face teams with 2017 records near or above .500 only 17 times and 40 times total during the first 96 games, which takes us to the All-Star Break. What does this mean for the contention timeline? I discuss that below.
The Phillies were able to trade many of their free-agents-to-be, making room for Nick Williams and giving Ben Lively and others a shot. The team has been doing better with the younger guys up here - 4 games under .500 since the All-Star Break. The younger guys, except Franco, have made Phillies baseball a little more exciting. Earlier this week, GM Matt Kentak discussed the off-season plans: pitching-focused.
Analysis:
It is funny (the odd kind) that we acquired more pitchers than hitters over the last few years of trades (although we drafted ok in both departments) and it is our hitting that stands out in the majors right now.
Hoskins is NL Rookie of the Month for Aug.
Herrera hasn't lost a beat in the month he's been DL'd (hamstring), continued his 20-game hitting streak yesterday in the 11-10 loss to the Nats.
Altherr & Williams have been hitting very well too.
Galvis has played every game this season, starting all of them except yesterday. Of course, I'm a stickler for only 5-6 starts per week as opposed to 6-7, unless on a hot streak. He continues to impress with the glove but his inability to hit better is a problem. The front office thinks Crawford is a better overall player despite his struggles transitioning to AAA.
Tommy Joseph has held his own over his short career and a platoon with Hoskins is possible if Joseph is able to be traded.
Hernandez is hitting .289 w/ a .787 OPS.
Knapp has impressed when healthy.
In the minors, many players have impressed but one (I cannot remember his name) is susceptible to injuries.
All the pitchers up here have shown flashes of dominance but they are only flashes or at least they only just arrived this year.
Around Spring Training time, I said that we'll be good next year if we have 7 guys that can pitch in the rotation. While we kept that depth in terms of # of names (adding Tom Aschelman - the Intl League All-Star Starting pitcher), the overall quality is looking bleak, so it looks like Klentak is right: focus on pitching. We need two starters and they need to be better than the ones we've been signing - worthy of multi-year deals. A bullpen piece or two wouldn't be remiss. And I will discuss the offense here: trading Franco, Galvis, Hernandez, and/ or Joseph will serve two purposes: acquire pitching and allow at least 1-2 of the kids to roam free. As for Franco, I'm ok if he gets one more year to become the franchise 3B by hitting at least .280-.285 (like he did in 2015). The bench will undergo some changes and acquiring a bench piece or even a catcher can't hurt as long as they're not starting more than 2-3 games per week on average.
Unfortunately, what has happened this year has caused me to think about the rebuild. I analyze that it will be delayed at least a year: contend in 2019 and potential to reach World Series in 2020 as opposed to 2018 & 2019 respectively. However, that's not a bad thing and we should not be unexpected by most; it's also worth noting that the following off-season class is better than this one's. But if everything goes right, Wild Card is possible. What are those ifs? (1) The kids don't loose a beat thru the start of 2018 (easier to do facing weak teams 71.67% of the time), (2) Klentak's signings & trades this off-season work and (3) the depth at AAA continues to come up with some success (even half the success we've had this year would do). Recalling the 3 ifs rule from pre-2014, it's looking bleak. Plus, while that may look like 3 ifs, it represents about 30 players throughout the course of next year. I don't think we'll be able to beat the Nats in the NL East next year even if this scenario plays out and if Klentak's Phillies history is any indication, the second if has about a 30% chance of working out.
And my last thought about Klentak's presser is simple: he didn't address whether he'll sign quality guys and on a 2-3-year deal. I hope so. While we don't need an ace yet, we do need something slightly better that we've had. Jeremy Hellickson was consistent in 2016 and into 2017 and his mentoring of the younger guys was invaluable - Thank you, Jeremy! However, we need someone (actually two starters) in the 3.2-3.6-ERA range and I'm not sure if we can get them on 1-year deals (and we need them for slightly longer than that). And that is slightly more disappointing than the delayed rebuild but we'll have our answer soon enough. I just wanted to know.
Congrats, Rhys on your award and others on your promotions. Go Phils!!!
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