Monday, July 24, 2017

Trade Deadline Preview

Hello, everyone. Hope all of you are doing well. Been busy here. Still thinking about the Phillies! My thoughts right now: trade players soon, call up some from AAA. So who is going? We have four categories: (1) near-guarantee, (2) actively shopped and likely to go, (3) actively shopped and unlikely to go, (4) not actively shopped but could go.
  1. Pat Neshek, our lone representative to the All-Star Game, is a sure bet to be traded. The 'pen is still rough and will be worst without him but he can fetch us a nice prospect, probably at AA or AAA. His spot won't open up much at the bigs but perhaps create a chain reaction down to Lakewood (low A) - I'm looking at JoJo Romero in Cleawater and M Moniak, S Sanchez, A Medina, and others (esp'ly the rotation - 1.76 ERA!!!) in Lakewood.
  2. After Pat, there really is no guarantee that anyone else will be traded, so I'll stick with bullpen for a moment: J. Benoit. He's probably a category three. Could package him. His departure would be similar to Neshek's.
  3. Let's go to category two now: J Hellickson (doing well overall. Intl Leauge ASG starter Tom Eshelman called up), H Kendrick (doing well when on the roster, so there might be an Aug. waiver deal), T Joseph (doing well and we'll get to see R Hoskins)
  4. And category three: D Nava (D. Cozens called up). You could put Tommy Joseph in this category.
  5. And category four: pretty much every non-pitcher except for Williams, Knapp, Perkins & Kelly. Rupp would not go unless a better veteran is acquired. Franco is unlikely to go since we dont have anyone in the pipeline at AAA. Herrera might not go since we signed him thru his arb years which is a team-friendly deal. He, Rupp and Franco are getting better (luckier) offensively. All three hold their own defensively. Hernandez could be packaged. Galvis could be our future - his glove plays excellently here. Maybe that'll be enough to be a key bench piece - or he could also be packaged. Altherr (currently DL'd) is part of our future. Many others on the 40-man (and some on the 25-man) not really considered part of the core could be packaged, traded in August, or DFA'd (then either released or assigned to AAA). I'm looking at A Blanco & A Morgan, possibly L Garcia & B Stassi.
So who else might we see? Quinn is coming back from another injury but he should be back soon, perhaps Sept. Ben Lively & Zach Eflin could return. Leiter, too. Crawford is doing better but his difficult transitions will likely keep him in AAA until next trade deadline.

Who won't we see: Alfaro is not ready but will likely make the team next Spring primarily because of the option years situation. If he's called up, we risk loosing him if he's sent down. Kingery is doing well but just arrived at AAA and the front office doesn't want to start his option clock yet - and no protection req'd yet.

Oh, and if you're wondering, the contention timeline is slowed a bit at the beginning, IMO, but still expecting success from 2019 on. I do think adding more successful outsiders is necessary. No shame in admitting that you need more outside help as half our core during the '05-'12 ere were non-draftees: 1-2 rule 5s (Victorino, primarliy), 4+ trades (Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Lidge), & 3-4 FA's. And there are lots of players we can call up during the next few years throughout our system, most of the ones you hear about are from Lakewood and higher. Maybe our bad luck developing prospects will end.

Have a great night and happy tracking the trades.

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