Welcome to Spring Training: Updates from Camp

Well, Spring Training is finally here. So, that means talking baseball, right? WRONG! Trade rumors continue:

• Cliff Lee, with the assistance of an 8-ball, says he doesn't know whether or not he'll be traded between mid-Spring & late July and will compete for the Phillies in the meantime. He is also healthy and throwing his bullpen sessions every three days as opposed to every other day, which is only a precautionary measure.
• Papelbon says he'll continue to be himself: close games, mentor the younger guys, speak his mind. He also says that the Phillies could end up with a near-winning record. At least one thing is clear: he will be the closer if he performs well per Ruben Amaro, Jr.
• Cole Hamels harshly criticized the Phillies in a short Q & A with Bob Nightengale of USAToday.com, saying he can't win here and wants a trade. In his presser, he rephrased that, saying he wouldn't mind a trade if it helps the Phillies, but will continue to do his best to help the Phillies win.
• Howard: Ruben apologized to Howard for making their "better off without you" conversation public. Reiterates that they will work around him. Ryne said he will keep Howard in the line-up most days.
• Galvis is ready to take control of the SS position, says he "will play his game" and not Rollins'. While he must perform, it is imperative we are not too harsh: he hasn't gotten consistent playing time in about three years. Let's sit back & see what he can do with regular playing time, shall we?
• Many of the Phillies players, especially the "future core players", reported to camp early: many of the hitters reported on Thursday with the pitchers and catchers. Asche seems to be the winner, taking fly balls in the OF for most of Feb. Revere added that some are aiming to be player-leaders, which happens over time.
• Ryne calls this a "transition year" while many fans compare this team to the Sixers - calling this a "tanking year". I feel the phrases "transition year" or "rebuild" are more accurate descriptions of the 2015 Phillies than "tanking": This team is capable of winning 66-78 games this year. Reviewing Ryne's comments a few months ago, his goals this year include improving communication with his players along with being amenable to playing the younger guys in other positions.
• Reported this morning, the Red Sox likely get Cuban IF prospect Moncada, 19 Y.O., for a $30MM bonus, which would likely cost them an additional $30MM payment to MLB. The Phillies had interest, but I think the bigger failure is not taking Y. Tomas, 23 Y.O.
• Injury: Phillies OF prospect Kelly Dugan is out for at least two weeks with a stress fracture in his right foot.
• And last, but not least, I give you the new hitting program assignments, plus a note about broadcasters:
• Hitting Coach Henderson: In-charge - will rove between the groups.
• Former Manager C. Manuel: Howard, Ruiz, Franco, Francoeur, & Sizemore
• Former 3B/ HoF M. Schmidt: Brown, Asche, Ruf, & Galvis
• Schmidt will reportedly add home-game Saturdays to his broadcasting schedule this year. Ben Davis takes over for Jaimie Moyer, who left to be with his family.
• Assist. Hitting Coach Mizerock: Utley, Revere & Hernandez
• Minor League Hitting Coaches Rende, Tracy & Brundage will work with the rest of the hitters.

Ok, I admit that there is baseball talk, but there is also a lot of discussion on how the players are handling trade rumors - perhaps too much.

A Sense of Optimism: How the 2015 Phillies Contend

It's not a far'fetched scenario. Baseball is a weird yet fun-to-watch sport: 162 games in ~180 days, nine innings & 27 outs per team. You'll always win 1/3 of your games and loose another third. It's just the grind that is a six-month baseball season. Weird things happen. Last year, the Phillies throw a combined no-hitter & scored 14 against the Rangers on O.D. yet lost 89 games. Since 2011 ended with the Howard collapse, the Phillies have lost more games than they won: 81-81 in 2012, which followed a 102-win season, and then back-to-back 73-and-89-seasons: 227-259 in last three years. So why optimism?

The Phillies are finally getting younger. Last year, the bullpen came around. For most of the rest of the season after Giles' debut, that bullpen - Pap, Bastardo, Diekman, De Fratus, Hollands, and Giles - was 2nd best in the majors behind the Yankees & best in the NL, making that combined no-no possible. This year, we knew that the rotation would be in-transit despite Hamels on the block & Lee a question mark after injury. One reason was Buchannan ,who made ~20 starts to a 3.75 ERA. Now, with Rollins, Byrd, & Bastardo traded (and Sandberg getting permission to platoon Howard), the offense can start to get younger & develop some players at the ML-level.

The rotation has Hamels (1.91 ERA from June 1 on & still only 31 Y.O.), Williams (re-signed to a 1-YR deal after going 4-2 w/ 2.83 ERA with Phillies),  Lee (throwing regular-Lee... sorry, had to!) and Buchannan with many competing for the fifth starter role.

The bullpen may have lost the inconsistent Bastardo & the Phils could say goodbye to Pap anytime but is still going to be a force with Hollands, Giles, Diekman, & De Fratus established. There is a risk of injury and some regression as the league figures these guys out, but they should be ok.

If the offense goes right for the Phillies, then things get interesting. This was the biggest question mark entering the off-season. How would the Phillies change these guys? We knew veterans were on the block, but could a deal get done? Yes, two deals did get done. We traded three players (two on offense) for four pitching prospects. Crawford, age 19, continued to tear up Class A affiliates and then Franco, age 21, tore it up & earned a September call-up, which gives us hope. And then two critical things happened: first, as mentioned earlier, Sandberg can give Howard more days off; and second, few days ago, the Phillies announced they were forcing the Phillies players & prospects to learn (the nuances of) how to play small-ball. FINALLY!!!

So, who gets more playing time? Galvis, Hernandez, Ruf, Brown, Revere, Asche, and perhaps from late May onward... Franco. Yep, these guys will be given more playing time to prove whether or not they can play (nearly) everyday. I am most curious if Darin Ruf can hit like he did a few Augusts ago (when he broke Howard's Eastern League HR record). If that was a 9 on a scale of 10, I think his hitting will amount to a 6 or 7 over a full year. I am also curious how Ryne handles the inconsistent Revere and how he gets Utley days off. After May 28th, he went quiet offensively, except for an increase in HR.

Will the new hitting philosophy work? I don't think these guys will buy into it quickly. Some might, but if the coaches don't handle each player correctly, it will take longer. The veterans may have an ego, so do tread lightly, Henderson.

There are a lot of ifs in camp, and while I did not buy into all the ifs many other writers put out last year... I do buy into them this year. While I ultimately think the Phillies will not contend this year, there are a lot of interesting story lines to follow throughout the year. Baseball is not won on paper and amazing things can happen in 162 games. Come in with low expectations of a win but do not fret: you may witness something amazing regardless of a win or loss.

Another perspective: Keep an eye on the talent at AA this year. If they make strides, that will also be grounds for calling 2015 a good season. Enjoy the games! Four days until reporting date for pitchers & catchers.

Billingsley Signed to 1-YR Deal, Phils' Pitching Depth

The Phillies signed RHP Chad Billingsley, age 30, to a one-year, $1.5MM deal with an awards package that could give him $8MM. The former Dodger has not seen a lot of ML action over the last two years because of, you guessed it, elbow issues. However, Chad passed his physical and will join a rotation that includes Cole Hamels (not likely to be traded), Cliff Lee (still expected healthy), Jerome Williams (re-signed to 1-YR/ $2.5MM deal), and Aaron Harang (1-YR/ $5MM).

Unfortunately, if Chad pitches well in Spring Training, this signing bumps David Buchannan (sophomore season) to the 6^th spot starter, perhaps he’ll be the long-man in the ‘pen or perhaps he’ll start the year as the No. 1 in AAA. This also hurts Miguel Gonzalez (2^nd YR of 3-YR/ $12MM deal) in his bid to become a ML-starter and means that Sean O’Sullivan, Ethan Martin and Aaron Nola (next in line on the depth chart) will definitely be sent to the minors amongst the first or second round of cuts. Jon Pettibone & Adam Morgan, who are recovering from injuries, and Jesse Biddle, who had a rough year in AA last season, will probably be sent down during round one.

Analysis: I like this signing better than Harang given the age & lack of depth at ML starter with K.K. & A.J. gone, but both Chad and Aaron should have been signed to minor-league deals with an invitation to Spring Training. I do not favor pushing David Buchannan out of the fourth or fifth starter. Pitching is probably the only thing that will keep the Phillies afloat in 2015 as the offense will be more likely to regress than progress thanks to the losses of Byrd & Rollins. In a rebuilding year with Rube as GM, these signings will happen. And regardless of a rebuild or not, these signings happen on a contending team as well, although more likely to be minor-league deals in the latter case.

Also, I am going to go a bit more into our bullpen depth, so here are the top 9 most likely to see action during the on-deck series: J. Pap (unless trade), K. Giles (8^th inning or later), J. Diekman (innings 6-8, primarily the 7^th), J. De Fratus (mid-to-late relief), M. Hollands (middle relief), A. Oliver (Rule 5 middle relief), D. Buchannan, M. Gonzalez, and H. Neris. This signing pushed C. Jimenez off the 40-man roster; L. Garcia & P. Aumont (yes, he’s still around) will be in camp. However, based on the last couple of years, they are going to be in AAA.

The next entry will likely discuss why we should be optimistic about 2015, mostly discussing the offense.

Franco's 7 RBI propel Gigantes del Cibao to Championship Round

From Teddy Cahill of MLB.com:

"Third baseman Maikel Franco, the Phillies' No. 3 prospect, was one of the hottest hitters throughout the winter ball playoffs in his native Dominican Republic. Though he saw his hitting streak snapped at 13 games on Tuesday, Franco continued to be a driving force in the lineup for Gigantes del Cibao when the games mattered most.

"Franco capped his playoff run Sunday in Game 8 of the Liga de Beisbol Domincano championship series against Estrellas de Oriente with a dominant effort, hitting two home runs and driving in seven runs as Cibao defeated Oriente, 12-5.

"With the victory, Gigantes won the best-of-nine series and will advance to next week's Caribbean Series in Puerto Rico to play the champions from winter leagues in Mexico, Puerto Rico and Venezuela, as well as a Cuban team...."

Analysis:

Franco did quiet down a few days ago, but that's "baseball being baseball". Overall, he's continuing the hitting rampage he started during the second-half of the AAA season, which is a great sign as we head near Spring Training. Due to him being young, Asche still a viable option at 3B, Howard & Ruf blocking him at 1B, and - most importantly in a rebuilding year - keeping Franco's service clock near zero (via spending less than 107 days on 25-man roster O.D. to 8/31)... Maikel looks to start the year in AAA again. It would take a stellar spring from him and perhaps a quiet spring from Asche to convince the front office to put Franco on the MLB roster for most of the year. Still, seeing him continue to hit is good because that makes it more likely he'll be called up in May or June vs. July or August, especially considering holding back Giles last year (an OK - maybe a good - decision, in my opinion) led to him getting only 8 pts. in Rookie of the Year voting. I'd like to see Franco get a ton more this year. Rube, if you can only get one thing right this year, please let it be this!!!

Countdown to S.T.: 25 days.

Papelbon to Brewers Talks Hit Snag: Is Rube to Blame?

According to CSNPhilly.com, talks between Brewers GM Melvin and Phillies GM Amaro, Jr. regarding Papelbon have hit a snag. This is nothing new to this Phillies fan, nor should it be new to anyone else: Byrd to the Reds hit a snag but got done anyway. So, here's the latest: Papelbon is likely to waive his no-trade clause to go to a contender as he said "I didn't sign up for this", where "this" refers to loosing games. However, he has put the Brewers on his no-trade list, so he can block this trade. In order for him to waive his no-trade clause to go to Milwaukee, which is coincidentally where he said he'd be ok leaving Philly, he would probably require his $13MM option for 2016 to be picked up. So, if the Phillies send Pap over, the Brewers would be on the hook for $26MM over two years, which is expensive despite Pap's slightly-higher-than-2.0-ERA. The Phillies have proven that they will eat salary ($5MM went to the Reds in the Byrd deal), but despite that, talks with the Brewers stalled.

I have theory as to another factor that led to this stall besides Pap's salary and no-trade rights: Ruben Amaro, Jr. Yes, it's not farfetched. Most of the Phillies fan-base doesn't approve of his tenure - 96-98% disapprove last I checked. At first, it was the big moves: getting rid of Lee in December 2009 and shortly thereafter extending Howard two years before he was due to hit Free-Agency. Then, all the smaller moves added up, some bad from the start and others bad after the fact. That alone would not be a problem, nor all the contradictory statements regarding contention vs. rebuild. His accusation after the trade deadline - other GMs were not aggressive enough - cost him dearly. Rule No. 1 of negotiation: NEVER accuse or insult the other party, even when you may be correct. In Rube's case, we know that his assessment of his players was wrong.

Can he still negotiate? Yes. Can this trade still work out? Yes. But I have concluded that this process would be a whole lot smoother if Rube was not the Phillies GM. I must say: Rube & the front office have done a good job trading our veterans so far. Nice returns and very little money sent over so far.

Projecting the 2015 Roster

The full Spring Training roster is due to report in four weeks and I've completed the entries discussing last year and the off-season. With that discussed, it is time to project the Opening Day roster and depth chart.

Before I give out specific names, let's discuss numbers. Given the Phils' hitting needs, Ryne & Rube will probably go with 12 pitchers & 13 hitters - I would, if I were them. Assuming both Rule 5 picks make the roster, there are four spots open: one each for the rotation & bench and one bullpen spot. So, who will be guaranteed Phillies this year? Let's begin with the rotation.

*Rotation:

1. Lefty Cole Hamels as #1 - trade unlikely before O.D.
2. Lefty Cliff Lee as #2 - his elbow seems to have recovered
3. Righty Jerome Williams (re-signed to  1-YR deal)
4. Righty David Buchannan (sophomore season)

*Will be lefty-then-righty as the Phillies have done in recent years.

Bullpen:

9th Inning - RHR Papelbon (trade unlikely, despite Brewers' recent interest)
Late Relief - RHR Giles, LHR Diekman and RHR De Fratus
Middle Relief - LHR Andy Oliver (Rule 5 pick), LHP Mario Hollands

O.D. Line-Up (batting handedness in parentheses):

1. CF Revere (L) - hit .306 last year (inconsistent), 13 BB (needs more), 49 steals
2. C C. Ruiz (R) - adapts to any line-up spot; majority of looks this year to be in lower half of order.
3. 2B Utley (L)- getting more rest this year, possibly in 2-hole most of year
4. LF D. Ruf (R) - will get more playing time, especially against LHP
5. 1B Howard (L) - I think he'll bounce back, but definitely needs to play less vs. LHP.
6. 3B Asche (L) - Let's see if he can play nearly everyday.
7. SS Galvis (S) - Let's see how he does nearly everyday.
8. RF Brown (L) - Last chance to earn everyday job hitting-wise.

Bench:

C Cameron Rupp (righty) - destroyed base-runners in brief look last year; year-round back-up
IF-CF Cesar Hernandez (switch) - destroyed winter league
OF Grady Sizemore (L) - Re-signed to 1-YR deal
IF-OF Odubel Herrera (L) - Rule 5 pick; also tore up winter league

So, who is competing? For the rotation, the competition will include many familiar names, whom I mentioned in the Stay-or-Go mini-series. For the bullpen, considering that late relief is set, the competition will be mainly for a long man, probably one of those on that fifth starter candidate list. The bench will have a spot waiting for 3B-1B Maikel Franco, who looks to start the year in AAA and then come up in mid-late May. Until then, it's these OF competing for the final spot: Jordan Danks, Jeff Francoeur, Brian Bogusevic, and Xavier Paul.

I will soon discuss some preliminary predictions and, based in part on this Corey Seidman article, where to look for optimism. Go Phillies!

Grading the 2014 Phillies: "Stay or Go?" - Part II: Offense

The Phillies continue to try and trade some of their veterans and there is now a sense of urgency with pitchers, catchers, and injured players reporting in less than one month. Therefore, I give you part two of the “Stay or Go?” game: Offense/ Defense. We begin with catchers, starting with the primary.

Carlos Ruiz is certainly doing his part to get wins. When healthy, he plays in ~70% of the Phils’ games and does every aspect well: good rapport with pitchers, keeps balls in dirt in front of him, nabs a good chunk of base stealers, and even hits well anywhere in the line-up. You can’t ask more from a catcher. We may be slightly overpaying for him, especially with not being contenders, but he is welcomed to stay. Grade: B+/ A-.

We will discuss the back-ups to Ruiz, beginning with his primary back-up Wil Nieves. For a back-up to hit well over .200 while doing his part behind the dish is certainly a welcomed return on a one-year deal. It certainly will help further the development of Rupp, Joseph & Valle if Nieves is re-signed. Cameron Rupp may be ready to take the primary back-up role, especially with his knack for throwing out base-runners, but I don’t think he’s ready to take the lead position when Ruiz is injured. It should be interesting to watch. I have no clue who will be next to reach the majors. Tommy Joseph (AA/ AAA), Sebastian Valle (AA/ AAA), and Andrew Knapp (A) come to mind, but they’re at least 1.5 years from a call-up. So, both Nieves & Rupp get a yes to a return and combined “B” for 2014. Now, onto the rest of the line-up in defensive (3-9) order, so first basemen are next.

Ryan Howard remained on the field in 2014 after missing big chunks of 2012 & 2013 to Achillies & knee injuries, respectfully. He appeared in 153 games: 95 RBI, 23 HRs, .223 AVG, 190 Ks, .690 OPS. On the surface, 95 RBIs is ok production by one player, especially considering Howard had family issues and that it takes awhile to recover from leg injuries (per Larry Andersen).  His .288 BABIP is ok (near-avg.). So, what went wrong? His 29.3% strike-out rate and 16% RBI/ROB rates, the former of which was closer to 33% w/ RISP. Not only did he fail with the bat beyond 95 RBIs being ok, he does nothing else much right: part of his -1.1 WAR is terrible plate discipline & base-running plus novice-level defense (except he still limits errors). I predict a bounce-back year offensively for the former ROY & MVP in 2015: the family issues are resolved & he's back from injury. Ryne still should play him less (every other day consistently, pending lefty pitching) and maybe move him down. If Howard bounces back, that should up his trade value a bit for the deadlines, although his history & contract make trading him virtually impossible. Grade: "F+/D-"

What in the heck are the Phillies doing with Darin Ruf? Why is he only playing 1-3 days per week instead of 5-6 days per week? What was the whole point of benching Howard those three days? “To see what others can do” according to Sandberg, but then Rube apparently nixed that idea – we know now that he was trying to get Howard’s trade value up. It’s still frustrating! Phillies front office and coaches… you’ve seen Howard plenty now and Ruf can play both corner spots (see OF section for more on that). Please give Ruf playing opportunities. Grade: unable to determine due to injury, recovery mismanagement, and lack of playing time.

Next for evaluation are the infield bench players, Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez. Like Ruf, they fell victim to rehab mismanagement and/ or lack of playing time. With Rollins gone, Galvis looks to be the "everyday shortstop." I think he may do well as the primary shortstop (5 games per week), so do put him out there. Hernandez tore up the Winter Leagues. With that momentum plus defensive versatility (CF, 2B, 3B, SS), I welcome him to the bench. Grade: "Pass"/ "No Grade"

Come May 28^th, Chase Utley seemed well on his way to a .290 AVG with .300 seemingly within reach. Unfortunately, too much playing time wore down our only 2014 All-Star. I think, with at least one day of rest per week and sliding up to the two-hole, he can still produce for us to a .285 AVG. He definitely earned the $15MM he makes per year, especially considering he still plays the game right and the blame falls on Ryne for playing him too much. Grade: B+ (I’m hoping he stays). Now, we discuss our third basemen.

Keep in mind that Cody Asche has only been in the majors 1.5 seasons. The University of Nebraska product came into the majors with a .300 AVG in the minors over the equivalent of two full seasons. Could he have benefit from more time at AAA? Probably. Did the Phillies play him often enough after his call-up? I think so, although a bit of a mental break from time to time would help. I like Asche, especially in a platoon, but the jury’s still out on whether he can play every day or not. Grade: Pass.

Maikel Franco started the year in AAA and really started slow. But in the 2^nd half, with help from none other than Charlie Manuel, he tore it up. To use the front office’s words, the 21-year-old Venezuelan “forced” them to call him up in Sept. He played in 16 GM, made just under 60 PAs, had a .404 OPS, and only one error. Scouts say he’s better than Asche overall. Right now, he is behind Asche, which is fine for a 21-Y.O., so more time in AAA will benefit not only Franco but Asche as well (As I said, "the jury is still out on" Asche as an everyday player.). Furthermore, if Franco spends more than five weeks in AAA, his free agency time will come one year later than if he'd opened the year in the majors. However, if Franco can continue hitting at the pace from which he left off - he’s doing/ did in winter ball - I would welcome him up hear anytime, as early as Opening Day. Grade (incl. minors): Pass. Now, instead of discussing more of the Rollins trade & his replacements, we go onto the outfield.

Marlon Byrd did what was asked of him, and that was to stabilize right field offensively & defensively. He struck out a lot, but I didn’t notice it being a detriment this year. I would have loved to see him back, but in a rebuilding year, a trade was the right move. This opens up right field to Domonic Brown, his natural position in A & AA, which should (and has to) benefit him mentally. Left field is open to Ruf or  perhaps some of the utility guys (Hernandez, Asche) or, if the Phillies want to slide him over, Revere (Please do, Ryne!). Ben Revere did well offensively, considering he batted >.300 overall and stole 49 bags despite slow starts & finishes to the season and screws in his ankle. Now that he's no longer screwed up, he should be (1) more consistent despite another slow start and (2) able to more easily use his speed to stretch 1B into 2B. We have Grady Sizemore back, giving us four OFs, and to round out the MLB depth, the Phillies have five players competing for one (or two, if Howard goes) sports: Jordan Danks (off waivers from White Sox), Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera (another who tore up the winter league) and - on minor league deals - Jeff Francoeur, Brian Bogusevic & Xavier Paul. And now, the 2014 Phillies Outfielders' scores: Brown: D-/F+… 2015 will be make or break; Revere: B-; Byrd: A-; Sizemore: Pass.

With the rebuild underway, the Phillies should be competitive in 2016 and definitely by 2017. We have prospects coming up this year (Franco & Nola) and more at AA (most of our top pitching prospects plus Crawford in 2^nd half), who will come up in late 2016/ early-to-mid 2017. I agree with Gillick’s assessment of the rebuild (2017) and look forward to continued progress (not continued success) with our prospects. I said the rotation would be the rebuilding theme this year, but with Rollins & Byrd gone, it looks like I can say the offense can get started, too. Good luck in 2015, guys!