It has been awhile since I blogged guys but let's talk about the 2025 season overall. I do not blame Orion Kerkering (I was at his debut BTW) - that was simply the last play. Even if he made that play, we'd still be tied in every aspect (tie score, tied at 2-games apiece if we won). I blame the offense more and maybe the coaches. We explore that here. I might do a stay or go for everyone else, but in the interests of expedience, let's do 10 guys.
Yes, the team averaged 4.8 runs per game BUT they did it with a standard deviation of 3.46, meaning if they scored 8 runs today, they were just as likely to score only 1-2 runs tomorrow. Why does that sound familiar? Oh yeah - Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS, which should be called the [Nat'l/ Amer'n] League Semi-finals due to teams frequently playing against another division's team. In the regular season, yes this didn't happen as often as in past years but it did and it certainly showed in the NLDS. This needs to be addressed this offseason.
Pitching was pretty good. They allowed an average of 4.00 runs per game (yes it's that even) so an avg run differential of 2.4 RPS (runs per three-game (3-gm) series) will get you a winning record. ERA: 3.53; bullpen: 4.27. I think we locked in good with the acquisition of Duran. Middle relief is, per usual, a big need exiting 2025. But if we do not improve in that area next year but we do in offense, I'm game.
Why did the offense not show up? Could be the coaches. Let's see. Many players seem to like Thompson and Long.
Rob first: the record in the first two months of his tenure was identical to Joe and this time, Rob led them to the postseason. With their backs against the wall in St. Louis, they came back to win the wildcard series and rode that momentum to a pennant. Of course there wasn't much they could do against Houston but that set the stage for seasons to come. It was all about improving around the core. And we did overall... our win totals increased every year in the regular season BUT decreased in the postseason. Has Rob lost his luster? Yes. The clubhouse? Not sure. I'm on the fence here. BUT the core is here to stay except J.T and Schwarber are F.A.s. So with the core here for about a half-decade at this point, a change at the coaching level needs to happen. So I'm leaning toward Rob going. Asked to retire is deserved. And I think change should occur with the manager but could the hitting coach go? Instead or with the manager?
Players love Kevin as about three (3) of them were with him as a Nat. And one could argue that coaches have little impact on MLBers, especially the veterans. But the decline of the postseason and lack of a hitting team really hurts. Long being fired? I don't know. I'm like John and Dave and prefer that the manager fire the coaches but a case can be made for firing of K.L. If you remove Rob, all coaches are told they can stay or go - no guarantees they stay when a new manager is hired. Plus the players may take more kindly to Rob. I'm leaning towards go BUT not as much of a lean as I am for Rob.
Now for the players. Let's essentially save the best for last. Who is impending? Bader, Alvarado, Robertson, Romano, Kepler, Suarez, Realmuto, and Schwarber
- Bader: good acquisition without the stats but let's look: his avg jumped ~50 pts and his OPS by ~100. He has a mutual option. STAY
- Alvarado: I still do not understand why there is a rule that he not qualify for the postseason if he's suspended UNLESS his suspension ends on game 162 or later. But the suspension hurt. It makes this stay or go call tricky. He's servicable but hurt the team with accepting suspension. It's also easier to fight a drug test if you can prove it was accidental. His ERA has been elevated lately compared to early in his Phillies career (came from TBR). He's got a club option that I'd like to NOT see it through: GO. Maybe he can be signed here after if the price is low.
- Robertson: he had a 4.1 ERA this year. Gave up 2 runs in game 1. Third time was ok but NOT the charm... GO!
- Romano: overall 3.73 ERA but an 8+ ERA in a contract year. That's enough for me. GO!
- Kepler: He, like Romano, also didn't perform well the last two years. He also has a -0.5 dWAR (defensive Wins Above Replacement) - ouch. That's also enough info for me: GO!
- Suarez: Has a bad game here and there but overall ends up in a 3.5-ERA territory with a 1.2 WHIP (~11 B.R.s per 9, 7 B.R.s per start (he avgs 5 2/3 IP (17 outs) per start). I don't know the S.P. market but let's try to keep him. STAY!!!
- Realmuto: Great career here. Throws B.R.s out, handles pitching really well. Declining offense but who cares! We don't have much else. For the record, I DO like Stubbs and Marchan but JT is on another level. Why did we not get serious enough about developing those two the last few years? Another lack of use in lineup by Rob? Ok. JT STAY!!! Maybe a two-year deal as a stopgap.
- Schwarber? What a transformation from the swing-off! Overall this year he hit 56! homers, 130 RBIs, the most PAs (724) and appeared in all 162 games, the latter I never am a fan of. Gosh who is out there that's like him? No. One. Close. It'll be expensive but KEEP. Speculating here but let's go with $120MM over four (4) years ($30MM AAV) or another $20MM for year 5 (making it an AAV of $28MM). I'd rather offer more $ over fewer years. Another big factor here is the All-Star Game and especially the Home-Run Derby is in Philly this year for the 250th Birthday of America. In Kyle I trust. Maybe Harper has a chance to replace him there.
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