How to Handle Howard

Ryan Howard is out of the line-up today: Maikel Franco gets his first career start at 1B, batting 2nd, with Byrd in the clean-up spot and Ruf protecting him in the 5-hole. Right now, in 147 team games, Howard appeared in all but seven (7), and has 21 HRs & 92 RBIs, putting him on-pace for 23 HRs & 101 RBIs. We all know that Howard stinks: He has the most opportunities to drive in runs, but only does so in about 16% of his PAs, one of the lowest rates in the majors. Why? He strikes out in 26.7% of his plate appearances in those situations. It's clear the Phillies need to go in a new direction, but he's owed a minimum of $60MM over the next two-plus years ($25MM per year for 2015 & 2016 plus $10MM buyout for 2017): Very tough to move. So, what can the Phillies do? There are three options: trade him, buy him out, or keep him. The latter looks the most likely with a trade a distant possibility. Let's break each one down:

1. Trade him: Ok, his contract is immovable, even if he drives in 100 batters or more this year. what does he have going for him: he's healthy for the first time since the end of the 2011 season and he has a .371 BABIP w/ RISP. Against him: high K-rate, low RBI/OPP rate, no speed on bases, and terrible fielding. So, the only option is to send him to the AL so he can DH. The only way this happens is if the Phillies eat at least 50 of the 60 million dollars left on his contract.
2. Buy Him Out: This will cost the Phillies more than the $60MM he's owed due to luxury tax considerations despite the Phillies' new long-term broadcasting deal. Need I say more? It's not happening. Maybe in 2016 when he's owed $35MM and a LOT more contracts expire, but that doesn't help them this year.
3. Play him: This is what they'll have to do if Howard's here on 4/6/2015. I don't see a trade and he's not being released, so do play him, but a lot less and at least have him bat 6th or 7th in the order (hitting streak the only exception). We have the players to spell him: Ruf; Utley possibly; and from the 2nd trimester/ half onward, Maikel Franco. Maybe he'll take extra BP and improve. Heck, he's a much better pinch-hitter anyway. One thing's for certain: he's no longer an everyday player, particularly in the games before the All-Star Break.

Phillies Winning since 7/24, 2015 Line-Up Considerations

Overall Record: 65-75 (.464)
O.D. to 7/24: 43-58 (.426)
7/24 to 9/5: 22-17 (.564)

Nice rebound and all those wins are the result of playing fundamental baseball! An 81-81 record won't happen given that the Phils are facing playoff-bound opponents the rest of the year (22 games left). Not sure they can win more than 14 of those, but anything more than 8 wins gives them a better record than last year: glass half-full. As stated in previous entries, the pitching has improved greatly over the course of the year, which I'll talk about in terms of 2015 later. But today, I'll break down the position players in defensive order (2-9). Here is what the front office & Sandberg need to consider next year to have more/ continued (?) success:

1. Rotation & 'Pen: Expect a pitching entry later this month.
2. Catchers: Expect Ruiz to be the primary catcher and relieved as normal (day game before/ after night game/ extra innings, etc.). I expect & hope Rupp is our back-up, so look for more caught stealings while all other categories, especially rapport w/ pitching staff, remain sound & steady.
3. First Base: Expect Howard & Ruf to split time here, then factor in Franco. Howard needs to rest more (3 days off per week) and start hitting 5th or 6th in the order, especially in the first half.
4. Second Base: Chase, over the past two years, has certainly proven he can remain healthy and be productive, however, Sandberg must rest him more often. A day off per week with Galvis, Hernandez, and even Asche as back-ups will guarantee Chase a .300 avg for the season.
5. Third Base: Asche is still in development and Franco had a slow start in AAA last year, so giving these players a half-year of 500-PA-pace play will benefit the organization greatly. Franco is the better player overall, but I see .280 AVG with sound 3B defense in Asche in future years. And yes, do put Asche in at 2B & LF in Spring Training b/c Franco will be a Phillie sometime in 2015.
6. Shortstop: Rollins has certainly bounced back by hitting more line drives vs. pop-ups and can still flash the leather. Rest him once or twice per week, too, so he can be most productive.
7. Left Field: I think a platoon between Brown & Ruf with cameos by Revere & Asche is the best course here. I think Brown will bounce back: he knows what to do to hit more. With Ruf splitting time at 1B and Brown no longer an everyday option, keeping Grady Sizemore may be a good option, especially for the 1st half of the season.
8. Center Field: The NL batting title for Revere with screws in his ankle? That's gettin' it done! However, I don't think Revere is an everyday player, especially in CF (bad routes, weakish arm). Moving Byrd here and Revere to a corner spot is probably the best course for the team.
9. Right Field: Kudos to RAJ for signing Byrd as he certainly stabilized a least one OF position compared to last year, albeit overvalued by 1-3 million bucks. I think the OF is set, but trades may complicate matters. However, all the OFs can play more than one OF position (something to try in S.T.), so there's some flexibility. I'd say keep Sizemore as a means to an end: player development.

So, the theme: Go young, Phillies! Develop the players at a fast rate and get them more playing time in the majors. Yes, you're bound to the aging veterans a bit, but you know who they are as players. You still have more info to gather on the under-30-YO players.

Today: 4 PM game... Phils at Nats on CSN.

Sept. 1 Update: Combined No-No, Roster Expansion

Wow! What a game! Not many good things happening in a loosing season, but Phinally, Cole Hamels has his no hitter. It wasn't a pretty outing for him with 108 pitches in 6 innings, one hit batsman and FIVE walks, but he kept the hitters from making hard contact, except for the 3rd inning fly ball snagged by a diving Marlon Byrd. The bullpen - Diekman, Giles, and Papelbon - did its job, striking out five in three consecutive 1-2-3 innings. It was the first combined no-no for the team and the eleventh (11th) combined no-hitter in MLB history (first since the Mariners in 2012). It was the Phillies first no-hitter since Roy Halladay's NLDS no-no vs. the Reds at CBP. The Phillies won the game 7-0 and the team dedicated a game ball to recovering President Dave Montgomery, who's taking a leave of absence.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Another awesome story are the Taney Dragons, who were the third-best team in the LLWS this year. I'd like to congratulate them on their spectacular season and wish them all the best in the future! I'm sure we all hope they stick with baseball, but I certainly will be happy if they're happy with their choices, whether they stay with the sport, go to another sport, or do something on the academic side of things.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Roster:

The Phillies went with a 25-man roster in that game as the Ironpigs had one more game to play. The Phillies have been preparing for the expansion by trading 1B-OF John Mayberry, Jr. to the Blue Jays (one of his dad's former teams) and transferring Cliff Lee to the 60-Day DL. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer has at least two sources confirming our suspicions that the Mayberry trade was to free up a roster spot for 1B-3B Maikel Franco to be promoted Tuesday. Moving Lee to the 60-Day DL allows the Phillies to promote Tony Gwynn, Jr., who was released then re-signed to a minor league contract shortly after returning from his dad's funeral. May your dad continue to RIP, Tony.

Other call-ups will likely include: Mike Adams (60-Day DL), P Miguel Gonzalez, C Cameron Rupp, and IF Cesar Hernandez. It is possible that than P Etan Martin, P Hector Neris, and OF Aaron Alther will be called up after their cups of coffee earlier this year.

Also, Amaro hinted at a probable start of a long rebuild with clever roster moves like the trades that sent Roberto Hernandez to the Dodgers and Mayberry to Toronto in order to free up space for "new blood." Speaking of a rebuild, I would like to revise my estimate from a two-year process to a by-mid-2017, especially considering that J.P. Crawford won't be ready until Sept. 2016.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Sandberg:

There have been many mistakes made by Ryne this year, which is normal for a 1st-year manager. I had hoped he'd be able to squeeze every possible win out of this roster, but his decisions have been questioned by almost every player on the roster and also by fans & media. He has been making a lot of bad decisions, very similar to decisions that Manuel made late in his career: playing certain players (mainly the aging veterans) too much over the younger guys, pulling starting pitchers early, keeping them in too long, using the wrong guy out of the bullpen. This is normal, but it's hard to blame Sandberg for the loosing record: I blame Amaro and the stone-age-of-stats front office. So, what went wrong for the Phillies? Let's grade four "groups":

Ruben Amaro, Jr.: F+. Largely a failure, but his signings of Jon Papelbon, Marlon Byrd, & Carlos Ruiz are panning out as expected (hence the plus). I'm glad he finally has come around to the idea of a rebuild, but despite the clever trades mentioned earlier, I (and most fans) don't trust him to rebuild smartly.

Ryne Sandberg: D+/C-. He would still have a loosing record even if he'd made better decisions, but that's no reason to pull the plug on him. It's too early for that, so FIRE RUBEN!!!

Starting Line-Ups: F+/D-. Inconsistency has been the story this year, especially considering the lack of offense. However, the team continues to show flashes of brilliance. While they've limited the no. of errors this season, most games with errors have resulted in losses. New blood and 130 starts for the "everyday" players will greatly benefit the team in 2015.

Pitching: C/C-. The team's 3.92 ERA is 10th-worse in MLB & 3rd-worse in NL, but most of the bad stuff happened in the first quarter. Most of the personnel on 9/2 roster, which had been largely successful during this span, will return next year. I predict continued success for most in 2015.

Enjoy the rest of the season. Future entries: individual grades, roster moves for 2015, top moments, a mid-month update (poss.), big news items, etc.

Prospect News

On Aug. 7th, the Phillies sent Roberto Hernandez to the Dodgers for two players (A-level prospect) to be named later in a waiver trade. The Dodgers gave the Phillies a list of players to scout and the Phillies chose their first of two prospects: IF Jesmuel Valenti. He was (at the time of his selection) the Dodgers' 13th-best prospect. He plays primarily 2B but also SS and will report to Clearwater (the Phillies high-A affiliate). Amaro indicated that Valenti will play primarily 2B, but I think he should be made into a utility guy (1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF) given that he may be blocked at 2B by Utley's contract potentially vesting thru 2017.

Amaro also indicated that more waiver deals are possible.

Other prospect news:

• Biddle returned to AA mound Sat. but exits with strained quad... final line: L, 3.2 IP, 2 R...
• Phillies release IronPigs P Jo-Jo Reyes (1-3, 10.45 ERA).
• Dugan & Franco tearing up minors lately, may earn Sept. call-up.

Giants' series results: lost series 2-1.

1. 5-3 comeback win in 10 innings
2. Errors, ineffective pitching lead to Giants' come-from-behind, 6-5 victory
3. Phillies score first, but Buchannan can't hold lead. Score: 5-2 Giants.

Phillies go 1-4 on CA trip; face Mariners at CBP. Pitching Match-ups:

1. 7 PM 8/18: Elias vs. Williams
2. 7 PM 8/19: Iwakuma vs. Burnett
3. 1 PM 8/20: Paxton vs. Hamels

Low Team Slugging Pctg Not Entirely Players' Fault

I've been playing around with the offensive stats from this and years past. I had a thought one day that this year's cool temps were a factor in the team's low slugging percentage and looked back as far as 2008 for context. The Phillies' offense has declined over the years, evidenced by scoring less & less runs and going shallower into the postseason each year since the Championship Parade despite good pitching. However, as a meteorologist, I knew the cool weather is affecting most of the nation, so I looked at team slugging stats. Here are the highest team slugging percentages per season since 2008, ranked from lowest to highest:

1. 2014 (.441)
2. 2013 (.446)
3. 2012 (.453)
4. 2010 (.454)
5. 2011 (.461)
6. 2008 (.462)
7. 2009 (.478)

2014 is the lowest over the past 7 years. This summer has been cool. I won't get too deep into the meteorological aspects, but take this "stat": Philadelphia has only had about seven days with highs at or above 90°, well below avg. Now, we know that pitching has been stellar over the past years, so you cannot blame just cool weather, but many hitting experts & managers (Charlie Manuel was one) call the summer months "hitting season," which is made true by the fact that air density is inversely proportional to temperature, so as temp. incr., air density decreases and balls fly further as a result. So, with lower temps this summer, the air density hasn't decreased much over the past few months, which is not much help to hitters trying to get those doubles & homers.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As for the Phillies' batting woes, it's hard to blame the weather & good pitching. Given the low slugging pctgs. league-wide, it's not a big problem that the team can't score runs via homers & doubles. The major issue is the lack of hitting w/ runners in scoring position (RISP). Their .243 batting average w/ RISP is 20th in the majors & 9th in the NL. I looked at IBBs, K-rate & BABIP (Batting Avg. on Balls In Play), to gauge whether this is due to lack of skill or bad luck. The team's .285 BABIP w/ RISP is a little low (usually the league avg. each year is .290-.300) but not excessive. The team's 21.6% K-rate  w/ RISP is 3rd-highest in the NL, and that's why this team is not driving in runs. They lack the skill to put balls in play.

Here's something interesting. The team (in RISP situations) is ranked 4th w/ 34 batters walked intentionally, with Chase Utley's (3rd in the batting order) 9 IBB ranked 10th in MLB. Ryan Howard's (batting 4th in the order) 28.8% K-rate w/ RISP is the 8th highest rate in MLB. So, this strategy of walking Utley to face Howard is working well for teams. It didn't pay off for the Astros, but it has worked well before that. It's clear that Howard, unless he's on a tear/ roll, should be placed further down in the lineups from now on.

That's all for now. Tonight, the Phillies take on the Giants at 10:15 PM ET (7:15 PM PT) with Hamels (6-6, 2.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.99 K/9) facing Bumgarner (12-9, 3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.78 K/9).

Phillies Trade News

The Phillies did nothing in late July despite clearly being sellers & having pretty much every player on the active roster up for grabs. The Phillies had opportunities but lucrative contracts with vesting options & limited no-trade clauses (NTC), five-and-ten-rights, and a high asking price that Amaro (RAJ) would not lower; precluded deals from happening. He blamed other teams but need only look in a mirror to see who to blame.

Why do I say that? Why is he to blame? Well, with rumors this specific, opportunity certainly knocked, but RAJ did not bite:

• The Reds had interest in both Byrd & Bastardo. The only thing blocking a trade is money-to-include vs. prospects (Byrd owed $11MM not including option and Bastardo was set to make up to $5MM thru 2015 (last year of arbitration)). This package could have net the Phillies two prospects, one of which could’ve been in AA. Amaro didn’t bite, probably because he wouldn’t send over enough cash.
• Hernandez, Pap, Burnett & Kendrick drew interest but Amaro asked for one major-league-ready prospect. That price was too high for these players: Hernandez & KK are half-year rentals; Pap is overpriced at $13MM/yr; and Burnett is a ? next year with that sliding player option. Even if RAJ agreed to pay the whole contract, he still would only net an A-level prospect for each. At least he redeemed himself with Thursday’s Hernandez-to-Dodgers trade for two low-level prospects.
• Player performances and injuries played a role in RAJ trying to shop these next guys: Revere, Brown, Lee, & Howard. Revere & Brown are cheap & weren’t as actively shopped as many others but Rube was willing to listen to the initial offer. There was hardly any interest from teams because Brown was struggling offensively & Revere is, at best, a two-tool OF (singles & diving catches). Howard’s $60MM ($25MM in 2015-6 & $10MM buyout for 2017) was unmovable given his post 2009 struggles. And Lee was the Phillies’ best trade chip until the elbow injury (he won’t return this season as of the Aug. 6 update).
• And finally came Cole Hamels. He drew interest from the Dodgers & Red Sox in July and was claimed by the Cubs this week before being pulled back due to no trade agreement. The asking price was three top prospects. While it is a high price for a $100MM-in-the-2^nd-half-of-his-prime ace southpaw, especially mid-season, I do think RAJ was in the right to ask for top prospects… perhaps maybe not a team’s top guys, but maybe the top lefty starting pitching prospect and 2^nd-best IF & OF prospects. I personally would like to see the team rebuild around Hamels & Utley (he & Rollins also drew interest but weren’t willing to waive their 10-&-5 rights): The Bridge to the Next Era of Phillies Baseball.

So, Amaro squandered trade opportunities because he was set on getting major-league-ready players for aging veterans & rental players. Sounds like the Phillies need a new GM.

First Half Grades; Trade Deadline & 2nd Half Outlook

The Phillies are about ten games under .500 and about ten games back of both the division crown & wild card spots. While many of the players want to stay and think they can win at least 44 of the next 67 games in order to reach the postseason... I don't think they can. This team's inconsistent play, especially on offense, is their Achillies heel (sorry for the reference, Howard). I'm finally convinced that the Phillies are not contenders. Thus, it is time to sell off a few pieces at the deadline & spend the next two years rebuilding through trades & player development.

I say two years is a reasonable estimate for the rebuild as we'll have Hamels (prob.), Nola, Biddle, Morgan, Pettibone, Buchannan; Crawford, Hernandez, Ruf, Brown (poss.), Revere (poss.), Rollins (poss.), Utley (prob.), Asche, Franco, Rupp, Joseph, Valle (poss.), Galvis; Bastardo (poss.) Giles, Diekman, Martin, Gonzalez, and De Fratus in the majors or a half-year away from the majors at the two-year mark. Many of the prospects, so far, have either panned out or are in the "so far, so good" category. And many experts seem to agree, putting our farm system in the middle of the pack and improving. There is definitely even more room for improvement, which includes better scouting through incr. use of advanced stats (OBP, WAR, BABIP, SIERRA, (x)FIP, etc.) and getting back into the intl market (think Franco, Chooch, Bastardo, & Gonzalez).

I hope that circumstances allow for a slow & steady rebuild over the next two years... and I think they might. The big contracts dwindle at the same time that players in the minors appear to be ready to replace them: Crawford for Rollins via Galvis & Hernandez; Buchannan for Kendrick. It is my hope that Sandberg's contract is renewed in two years: he will probably have three loosing seasons to start his big league managerial career... but I think that is more on Rube than Ryne. Anyway, enough of this overview... I'm going to grade the team:

Grades:

• Offense: F+/D-
• The offense has been inconsistent throughout the year, although an occasional flash of brilliance. They're hitting .229 w/ RISP (worst since 1972) & have a .300 OBP & .362 SLG.
• Pitching: B
• Both the rotation & bullpen have improved between the 1st two quarters. The rotation has a 3.99 ERA - a bit less due to loss of Lee & lack of early-in-game run support (trying to be too perfect). The bullpen has finally come around, evidenced by its 2.74 ERA in the 2nd quarter & 9.27 K/9 ratio overall.
• Team Grade: D

Projected Final Record: 74-88 (currently on-pace for 71-91 record)