Monday, September 30, 2019

Season In Review

It is over. Game 162 ends with a loss. The Phillies won the final series of the season after getting swept out of DC and end the year with the same record as 2012: 81-81. The team scored 774 runs (middle of the majors and top ten in NL) and allowed 794 runs for a differential of 20 in favor of opponents. We allowed 753 ER for an ERA of 4.53 (middle of the majors and fifth highest in MLB - not good).

The turning point this year was the series vs the Dodgers at CBP as the calendar turned to June. Before that series, we were 33-22. Our 4.09 ERA was high but slightly better than the middle of the majors. It was 6th lowest in the NL. We scored 267 runs (4.85 per game) good for middle of majors and 7th highest in the majors. We scored six runs in the first two games of the three game set then McCutchen went down and we lost the finale 8-0.

The series shouldn't have been a turning point. We had enough time to find an internal candidate for the lead-off spot but no one stepped up. We also had several incidents of lack of accountability (no meetings; four hustling incidents plus two other mentions) and certainly there was at least one breakdown in communication (Cesar's punishment) that leads me to believe that Gabe has to go. Not going after pitching also proved a mistake but a justified decision at the time. Now, it's up to Klentak or he's at risk in 2020. Here's the results from games 56 to 162:

A complete reversal in offense & defense and record: 48-59; 507 R scored (we drop from 7th highest to 7th lowest in NL; avg was 4.74/gm); 4.74 ERA (we drop from 6th lowest to 5th highest in NL). We also allowed 5.21 RPG and our -51 run differential in that span took us from +28 after the 55th game to -20 overall.

Our ERA being in the middle of the pack shows that it was not a pitcher's year. Options to fix this include ball manufacture & storage, change in approach, change in strike zone (already been proposed with the change in IBB) and changing the height of the mound. I will not delve any further into the high MLB ERA. As for the Phillies, the pitchers were clearly not effective and there was hindsight to suggest they wouldn't materialize. I still think the decision to be most aggressive on offense (and subsequently defense) was correct and both were on pace to work out after 55 games. At the deadline, the decision to bring bounce-back candidates was also sound but clearly didn't work and that approach must not happen again. Unfortunately, the deadline more pertains to prospects. Phillies had non that were trade-able after the acquisitions of Realmuto & Segura but they could have called Keuchel.

It is also worth noting the team's decisions the last 5-7 years have failed more than 50% of the time, maybe even 80% failure. That is as weird as the last two years of free agency have gone. Here's hoping the team's luck turns around and the right calls are made this offseason and beyond. My next entry will be released soon: Preview of the 2020 Schedule.

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