Friday, April 6, 2018

Phils Offense: Balancing Playing Time

Addendum 2 to my opinion & Phils on a roll - W 4/18 @ 9:45 AM EDT:

The Phillies are on the road playing the Braves and won in the 10th inning, continuing a good record in close &extra-inning games. Everyone is executing just enough to win - some struggles. The pitching is coming around and that made for some easy (read: "traditional") decisions. The offense has sputtered as of late but I'm not worried. I am concerned about J.P. Crawford's struggles against lefties... 2/27 against them. Small sample, short career and slow starts the last few promotions for him are mitigating factors, so I'll give him more time but Kapler will have to start thinking about resting him vs a lefty. And summarizing this article: We have 8 line-up spots and 12 players (7 and 10 not counting the catcher) - good depth! Florimon & Altherr are probably getting the least playing time - but expect them to get at least 2-4 GM per week.

Addendum to my opinion - Tu 4/10 @ 12:30 PM EDT:

Maikel Franco, by virtue of the last three years, does not deserve as many starts but his bat is hot and thus, needs to continue to see increased playing time. Williams' go-ahead, eventual-game-winning, PH HR shows he deserves more playing time despite a history of increased Ks & high BABIP. Right now, it appears that the odd men out are J.P. Crawford (extremely low AVG) and Aaron Altherr (age, experience, injury history, versatility) followed by Kingery (age, versatility), Santana (age/ experience, lower offensive ceiling than Hoskins) and Franco (history). The point still remains: deep line-up is making for tough decisions overall but I do see opportunity for more regular playing time for everyone.

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I see that Herrera only started four games out of the first six, Franco drove in 4 R yesterday, Hoskins is hot, Crawford is not, and Williams is now curious as to what's driving [down] his [lack of] playing time. This needs to change but there's a balance. So, I'm taking a look at the offense to see who should get most of the starts:
  1. Pitchers will be the next entry - I answer "Who's on the short leash in the rotation?" and "Who besides Neshek & Hunter can go 2-3 innings?" although the former question is more important.
  2. This is easy: both Knapp & Alfaro should play equally as both deserve it - promising first impressions last year & the last two Septembers respectively and both had good Springs and can call a game - at least better than Rupp. How will Kapler find playing time here? It's primarily the schedule (the day game after a night game or limiting consecutive starts) but offensive production, pitcher requests (a la Halladay & Chooch 2010), match-ups, or health could play into the equation, especially late in games.
  3. Santana is your primary first baseman but as a veteran in his 30s, he needs and could handle two off days per week. This will help the OF defense a bit as Hoskins is only just starting to learn LF.
  4. Hernandez should get most of the starts here as he is certainly become productive over the last few years, it's his natural position and he could be traded. This is also Kingery's natural position so he needs to see some time here, too.
  5. Franco is the guy that - per the last few years - doesn't deserve to start more than four games per week except when his bat is hot plus the Phils are looking to trade him. He'll have to platoon with Kingery and possibly Crawford.
  6. Crawford needs to see his coaches right now because he's not hitting - all of the players, including JP, are working counts well though. Putting Kingery in here 1-2 times a week for now is the right move.
  7. Review of earlier post: Hoskins is a hot bat but his .471 avg will come down closer to .300 (probably ~.315). Defense needs usually require him to start at 1B once per week and be moved there for extra innings. Altherr is probably the best bet as back-up.
  8. Herrera should have started O.D. and should play nearly everyday with Altherr also backing him up. Perhaps Hernandez, who has played CF professionally, can start here once a week, too, but Herrera should be the first off the bench.
  9. Williams and Altherr will platoon and Kingery can play once a week here. I'd say Williams should play here most as Altherr will still get plenty of PAs despite both being young - Altherr has more experience.
Kingery should be your first bat of the bench but he'll be starting 3-4 games per week. Altherr is your primary back-up OF. I - and Kapler - are fans of giving guys regular rest and regular playing time. So, with his willingness to use his bench more and - as I've discussed this offseason - that it's a three-man bench after the 2nd Catcher... there will be ample playing time for others. You'll see most guys end up between 200 & 550 PAs as opposed to between 150 & 650 PAs during the Charlie Manuel era. Lack of embracing BBs and especially less playing time for the bench did hurt Charlie and his team during the post-season and late in his tenure.

Kapler, find the balance between analytics and traditions like the eye test. Good luck!

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