Projecting the Win Total

The Phillies have been fairly active in signing players now that their coaching staff is set. They signed 1B  Carlos Santana to a 3-yr deal and added two two-year commitments to the bullpen: Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek. They are now working on their biggest need: quality starting pitching. I am concerned but not yet worried. They'll find the guys they need. In the meantime, they will rely on the following to overcome any rotation issues: (1) adequate defense, (2) an already-was-good-but-now-bolstered offense, (3) two hitting coaches, (4) an 8-man bullpen, (5) sports science, and (6) a "no-rules clubhouse". Interesting. I'll discuss the coaches' influence, how the line-up & short bench will fair in the field and at the plate then discuss the pitching.

Coaches

As I previously discussed this is a relative unknown. I think that players' development this year will matter more than the staff although the coaches have to maximize player production. I think the staff will do well in that category. Another aspect is communication and Kepler has already met most of his players over the late fall, discussing their initial role with them. It's all on the players to run with the advice they get (I'm looking at you Maik). Therefore, I see the staff leading us to at least that 80-win mark probably slightly higher.

Offense/ Line-Up

C: All is good here offensively - this and 3B is weak but we have others to help there. Same with defense - blocked balls and throwing out base-stealers. As for calling a game, that is a weak point that could be addressed by Klentak through FA or trade. I give this position a pass overall.
1B - Santana: Wow, what a surprise that was! I like it: skills of a 3-hole hitter and a hot streak could put him at 2, 4 or 5!
2B: Hernandez for most of the year adding Kingery sometime during the first half. Looking good.
3B: This is a make-or-break year for Franco and he'll probably have to do it in more of a bench role than previous years. This is barely a pass but line-up depth will help.
SS: Galvis is gone so defense will take a slight hit but Crawford is the better overall player.
OF: The streaky Hoskins will get most of the playing time in left. Herrera stays in center. Altherr looks to get the bulk of the playing time as the fourth outfielder. Williams, Cozens, Quinn add depth but most of the PAs go to Rhys, Herrera and Altherr. Defense is ok in left, great in center (good work Odubel!), and decent in right. Injuries (Altherr, Quinn) and a four-man bench will allow for adequate playing time for all the OFs plus one could still be traded. Also, if Cozens doesn't start decreasing his strike-out rate, he'll end up racking up the ~$4 one-way tolls on the NE Extension.

Post-AS-Break, the RPG was 4.77 - that's just under 775 runs over 162 games! Not sustainable over a full season but the depth and skill should get them to at least 725 runs (just under 4.5 per game) - perfect! Defense WAR per Baseball-Reference last year was -3.5 runs. I only buy the minus and do think the fielding will be a tad worse than last year. Now, will the offensive production exceed the pitching ERA?

Bullpen

With 8 men here, so far so good. They will have to work at least 2-3, with an avg of at least 4, IP/game thanks to most of the back-end starters going 5 IP/start. I think this group, if used properly (MacKanin did not), can pitch to a 3.67 ERA.

Rotation

Nola will get the opportunity to pitch complete games although I think he'll only succeed 2-3 times this year. Velasquez will get one more shot in the rotation. I like Pivetta but he'll have to start in the minors. Eickhoff could bounce back. Eflin will get a shot. Lively is still in the mix. Most of those will only go two turns through the line-up before the 'pen takes over. If they show themselves capable then they'll probably get more but it'll be up to the 'pen to hold leads which I think we'll get. We add Eshelman to the mix and unlike many of the others, he'll be out there through that 3rd or 4th turn through the line-up. I'm looking forward to seeing his debut. I'd say the rotation is at 4.75 ERA now and 4.5 when they sign/ trade for guys.

The rotation will be out for 5.1-6.2 innings and the bullpen 3-5 - I assume 10 extra-inning games. Do the math, and overall pitching ERA is 4.3, which is under the offense RPG by ~0.2. The difference will likely be bigger!

Ultimate Conclusion

We're at around .500 w/ coaches, offense RPG > team ERA, defense is weak but balanced out by the offense. I'd say 83 wins. No division nor getting the wild card but being short of it by 3-5 games will be remarkable. Also, the Phillies (and other NL East teams) have a very weak schedule in the first half. If we don't take advantage, we're definitely going to struggle to make the postseason this year.

How do we take advantage? Win one-run games, which will really show the coaches' skill. When do I evaluate that? After game 54. If we're 2-above-.500 with no more than 8 one-run losses, I'll likely increase the win total. That's also a good benchmark for checking in with the AAA team (Kingery, Eshelman, etc.).