Friday, April 3, 2015

Updated O.D. Roster & Season Projections


I went with 12 P & 13 H originally. Now, due to the delayed arrival of the 5th starter & injuries, I will go with 11 P & 12 H and then briefly discuss the last two spots.

  • Rotation: Hamels, Lee, Williams, Buchannan w/ Gonzalez, Billingsley, or Harang as a fifth
    • Hamels, as predicted is your O.D. starter. Lee is pretty much done for his career. Buchanan is No. 3 with Williams no. 2 (for this year). Gonzalez hasn't lived up to the hype and went unclaimed. Harang (back) & Billingsley (elbow) are a bit banged up and look to join the rotation late. Slowey got in, but after his release, O'Sullivan gets the nod come 4/12.
    • Now: Hamels, Williams, Buchannan, Harang on Opening Day, with O'Sullivan to come.
  • Bullpen: Papelbon (9th), Giles (8th), Diekman (7th & 8th), De Fratus (6th & 7th), Hollands, Rule-Fiver Oliver (Long-Man); Competition: Aumont, Neris, Garcia, Jimenez
    • Pap, Giles (recent back issue won't land him on D.L.), Diekman, and De Fratus are locked in. Hollands is likely heading to surgery. Oliver is headed on waivers. Luis Garcia & Jeanmar Gomez actually won a spot each. Cesar Jimenez figures to go in. Aumont never made it & is off the 40-Man. Neris is back in the minors.
    • Now: Pap, Giles, Diekman, De Fratus, Garcia, Gomez (long man), and Jimenez
  • O.D. Line-Up (Handedness): CF Revere (L), C Ruiz (R), 2B Utley (L), LF Ruf (R), 1B Howard (L), 3B Asche (L), SS Galvis (S), RF Brown (L), Pitcher spot (Hamels)
    • Revere is now in LF with the Rule-5 pick Odubel Herrera in CF. This puts Ruf on the bench (unfortunately) and Ruiz back in his usual 7th spot. And Brown's Achilles landed him on the 15-Day D.L., putting Sizemore in RF
    • Now: LF Revere (L), CF Herrera (L), 2B Utley (L), 1B Howard (L), 3B Asche (L), C Ruiz (R), RF Sizemore (L), SS Galvis (S), P Hamels (L)
  • Bench (Handedness): C Rupp (R), IF-CF Hernandez (S), OF Sizemore (L), and IF-OF Herrera (L)
    • Rupp earned the back-up catching job and Hernandez is also on the roster. With Sizemore & Herrera in the O.D. line-up, Darin Ruf & Jordan Danks round out the bench.
    • Now: C Rupp (R), IF-CF Hernandez (S), LF-1B Ruf (R), OF Danks (L/S)
  • Last spots: OF Jeff Francouer (R) looks to win a spot and the last spot goes to a reliever or potentially another OF from outside the organization. Sean O'Sullivan, once again, projects as the 5th starter: ETA: 4/12.
  • D.L. (Type): Lee (60), Hollands (likely 60), Billingsley (15), Brown (15)

Future Moves

Later on, the Phillies top prospects 1B-3B Maikel Franco & P Aaron Nola look to be called up in May & July/ August respectively.


The Phillies are expected to win, at most 73-75 games, but more likely 66-70 or lower. The bullpen will still be solid (top 20%-30% in both NL & MLB), but the rotation & defense are iffy, with the offense being sup-par-to-lousy at best. Details:

After Hamels, who may leave via trade, the rotation is full of No. 4 & 5 starters. Howard, while projected to have a bounce-back year, may get traded by early May, opening the door to Franco, who hasn't done much offensively at the major leagues. With the trades of Byrd and Rollins, the offense will take a hit. Much will depend on bounce-back seasons for most of the guys, which - in my humble opinion - will actually occur. Sandberg managing off days for everyone, particularly Utley, will be key as will the new hitting philosophy (off to a sluggish start). All-in-all, the offense will remain fairly stagnant. Defense is also going to take a hit, but not as big as the offense: Franco & Galvis are stellar defenders while Hernandez, Ruf, Asche, Revere, etc. are ok at the positions they expect to man. Overall, the Phillies will sacrifice this year to contend later, late-2016 at the earliest but more likely 2017 or 2018.

As for developing players, The Reading Fightin's (AA-ball) will be the minor league team to watch, especially its rotation. SS J.P. Crawford (top prospect) will be in Clearwater for Extended Spring and then A-ball for rehab (oblique) and then to Reading in late May/ early June.

Promotion potential: Franco (AAA to MLB in ~7 weeks); Nola (AA to AAA in ~2 months, poss. MLB in Aug.); Biddle to AAA around late July with a hurlers from Clearwater promoted to Reading around that time to "fill-in"/ "take their place". Then, it's onto the draft June 8-10.

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