Stay or go? Phillies Free Agents and Rob Thompson / Kevin Long

It has been awhile since I blogged guys but let's talk about the 2025 season overall. I do not blame Orion Kerkering (I was at his debut BTW) - that was simply the last play. Even if he made that play, we'd still be tied in every aspect (tie score, tied at 2-games apiece if we won). I blame the offense more and maybe the coaches. We explore that here. I might do a stay or go for everyone else, but in the interests of expedience, let's do 10 guys.

Yes, the team averaged 4.8 runs per game BUT they did it with a standard deviation of 3.46, meaning if they scored 8 runs today, they were just as likely to score only 1-2 runs tomorrow. Why does that sound familiar? Oh yeah - Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS, which should be called the [Nat'l/ Amer'n] League Semi-finals due to teams frequently playing against another division's team. In the regular season, yes this didn't happen as often as in past years but it did and it certainly showed in the NLDS. This needs to be addressed this offseason.

Pitching was pretty good. They allowed an average of 4.00 runs per game (yes it's that even) so an avg run differential of 2.4 RPS (runs per three-game (3-gm) series) will get you a winning record. ERA: 3.53; bullpen: 4.27. I think we locked in good with the acquisition of Duran. Middle relief is, per usual, a big need exiting 2025. But if we do not improve in that area next year but we do in offense, I'm game.

Why did the offense not show up? Could be the coaches. Let's see. Many players seem to like Thompson and Long.

Rob first: the record in the first two months of his tenure was identical to Joe and this time, Rob led them to the postseason. With their backs against the wall in St. Louis, they came back to win the wildcard series and rode that momentum to a pennant. Of course there wasn't much they could do against Houston but that set the stage for seasons to come. It was all about improving around the core. And we did overall... our win totals increased every year in the regular season BUT decreased in the postseason. Has Rob lost his luster? Yes. The clubhouse? Not sure. I'm on the fence here. BUT the core is here to stay except J.T and Schwarber are F.A.s. So with the core here for about a half-decade at this point, a change at the coaching level needs to happen. So I'm leaning toward Rob going. Asked to retire is deserved. And I think change should occur with the manager but could the hitting coach go? Instead or with the manager?

Players love Kevin as about three (3) of them were with him as a Nat. And one could argue that coaches have little impact on MLBers, especially the veterans. But the decline of the postseason and lack of a hitting team really hurts. Long being fired? I don't know. I'm like John and Dave and prefer that the manager fire the coaches but a case can be made for firing of K.L. If you remove Rob, all coaches are told they can stay or go - no guarantees they stay when a new manager is hired. Plus the players may take more kindly to Rob. I'm leaning towards go BUT not as much of a lean as I am for Rob.

Now for the players. Let's essentially save the best for last. Who is impending? Bader, Alvarado, Robertson, Romano, Kepler, Suarez, Realmuto, and Schwarber

• Bader: good acquisition without the stats but let's look: his avg jumped ~50 pts and his OPS by ~100. He has a mutual option. STAY
• Alvarado: I still do not understand why there is a rule that he not qualify for the postseason if he's suspended UNLESS his suspension ends on game 162 or later. But the suspension hurt. It makes this stay or go call tricky. He's servicable but hurt the team with accepting suspension. It's also easier to fight a drug test if you can prove it was accidental. His ERA has been elevated lately compared to early in his Phillies career (came from TBR). He's got a club option that I'd like to NOT see it through: GO. Maybe he can be signed here after if the price is low.
• Robertson: he had a 4.1 ERA this year. Gave up 2 runs in game 1. Third time was ok but NOT the charm... GO!
• Romano: overall 3.73 ERA but an 8+ ERA in a contract year. That's enough for me. GO!
• Kepler: He, like Romano, also didn't perform well the last two years. He also has a -0.5 dWAR (defensive Wins Above Replacement) - ouch. That's also enough info for me: GO!
• Suarez: Has a bad game here and there but overall ends up in a 3.5-ERA territory with a 1.2 WHIP (~11 B.R.s per 9, 7 B.R.s per start (he avgs 5 2/3 IP (17 outs) per start). I don't know the S.P. market but let's try to keep him. STAY!!!
• Realmuto: Great career here. Throws B.R.s out, handles pitching really well. Declining offense but who cares! We don't have much else. For the record, I DO like Stubbs and Marchan but JT is on another level. Why did we not get serious enough about developing those two the last few years? Another lack of use in lineup by Rob? Ok. JT STAY!!! Maybe a two-year deal as a stopgap.
• Schwarber? What a transformation from the swing-off! Overall this year he hit 56! homers, 130 RBIs, the most PAs (724) and appeared in all 162 games, the latter I never am a fan of. Gosh who is out there that's like him? No. One. Close. It'll be expensive but KEEP. Speculating here but let's go with $120MM over four (4) years ($30MM AAV) or another $20MM for year 5 (making it an AAV of $28MM). I'd rather offer more $ over fewer years. Another big factor here is the All-Star Game and especially the Home-Run Derby is in Philly this year for the 250th Birthday of America. In Kyle I trust. Maybe Harper has a chance to replace him there.

So, 4 stay, 4 go. Gives us a LITTLE bit of room as we're up against the tax again. Worth it if we win it all soon! I'd be happy with a pennant in 2026 but much happier with a title. Let's go Phillies. Lots of decisions to make Dave!

What a 2021 Season May Look Like

Spring training 2020 started normally. COVID19 was just starting to make its way into the US as US Citizens in COVID-ridden countries were allowed back into the states. Three weeks after ST started, it was shut down. The minor league season was shut down and despite MLB starting back up again in June/ July, only about 30 or so top prospects got to play. The ripple effect of COVID19 will certainly be felt in the next few seasons. Draft, new CBA (with the new rules that were implemented for COVID and in prior years), profit-sharing, lost year of development in not only MiLB, but also in some colleges and high schools where MLB teams scout (they couldn’t scout after mid-March), lost revenue, etc. But  I will focus on how MLB will look in 2021

No doubt about it. I think a full or nearly-full season will occur. Plan would be for 162 but 152 games planned (95%) may be acceptable and if there is a problem, teams could play 97.5% of the season (so 3-6 games missed at the most) and utilize winning percentage. Tie-breaking games for postseason qualifications can return to the fray (if all teams in a tie make the postseason, a tie-breaking game is probably not an option). So, what will this look like?

1.       Same rules in 2021 as 2020 except full 9-inning double-headers, relief rule should be limited to two batters and only 6-7 postseason slots per league. Most of the rules should stick in 2022 (2-batter back to 3-batter) but a new CBA will occur. Enforcement of social distancing rules in games is a MUST. IMO, it wasn’t done enough:

Teams and players that take risks that lead to positive tests like the Marlins did this year should be punished… decisions on postponement or yes, forfeit, should be left up to the umpiring crew and each teams’ manager. I don’t think a bubble is feasible for 8-9 months (9 = postseason) but rules of mask-wearing; prevent going to parties; keeping teams separate; interviews done with masks, distance or headsets; making sure those with positive test results are masked up as much as possible: celebration pics are an exception – perfect game, no-hitter, clinching games and postseason (no walk-offs) – but only for the duration of the pic and the infectee should be on the edge of the pic and facing slightly away from their teammates.

2.       I think fans can be in stands. Obviously, there would be a limit based on % of capacity (I’m hoping it’ll look like 2-3 households per section) and availability of staff (# of sections available) with mask-wearing unless eating. However, this will not start – for most teams – until about a month into the reg. season as we come out of winter. Also slightly in our favor is the new vaccines scheduled to be released next year.

I take this opportunity to congratulate Pfizer, et. al. on their announcement of 90% effectiveness. I personally will not take their or any vaccine unless at least a representative sampling of 100k people (regions, age, genders, race, lifestyle habits) have taken it, which is usually in the form of stage 3 clinical trials. I think the FDA will insist on those trials since pre-manufacturing research was based primarily on SARS (96% genetically similar to COVID, which is why the disease is sometimes referred to as SARS-nCov-2). But I do ultimately plan on getting the vaccine within a year of its release. Again, it’ll require at least two doses.

3.       I was against the 5-round draft. At the same time, it is hard to find someone beyond round 20. Of course there are exceptions like Mike Piazza. I am in favor of a draft that looks like the pre-covid era but limited to 25 rounds (40 was the limit prior). I still like the bonus limits.

 I think that covers the basics.

Kapler fired; Offseason plan

Kapler is gone. There was a strong case to keep him but his decision-making, state of the clubhouse as the summer wore on (including two collapses in two years), and inability to find a lead-off hitter in those last four months were the main reasons. In reality, without the contract status of him vs. Klentak & McPhail, it probably would've been the president and GM for failure to sign pitchers, especially failure to even make a run at Keuchel. I would like two things from Middleton (announced publicly): involved in at least one of the rounds of interviews and that he gave Klentak orders to find two starting pitchers (preferably Hamels & Cole but two is the number) with no spending limit on them plus JT's extension. A press conference is scheduled for today.

Here are the key dates (give or take 2d) pertaining to roster development:

• 5d after last gm WS (11/1-4): Free Agency begins (8), Team decisions on qualifying offers (QO) & all-party-decisions on options (Arietta, Hughes, Neshek & Vargas) due
• Nov 6-8: GM Meetings
• 15d after WS: Player decisions on QOs
• Nov 20th: last awards announced
• Dec 2nd: Non-tender deadline (arb-eligible) - 15 Phillies (Todd Zolecki has the list here)
• Dec. 9-12: Winter Meetings, Rule 5 draft
• Jan 11th: Arbitration #s exchanged; hearings start 2/1
• Val. Day: ST begins
• Feb 22nd: First ST Game
• Mar 26th: O.D. @ Miami Marlins
• July 12th: Game 96 & Futures game (@ Dodgers)
• Fri, July 17th: Game 97
• July 31st: ALL trades deadline
• Sept 13th: Game 150
• Sept 27th: Game 162

It should be the goal for the Phillies to have a manager as the World Series begins (selection) w/ an announcement on one of the travel days. They also need two trainers, a scouting director and pitching & hitting coaches - the make-up of the coaching staff will be left up to the new manager but the Phillies must payout the 2020 contracts of the other nine coaches if any were to be removed by the new manager:

Roster

Then comes free agency. You cannot put all your eggs in one basket (offense). Gotta get starters and first-year-FA (29-32 YO) relievers. Here are my thoughts on the roster make-up:

C Realmuto (extend); Knapp at back-up is fine but Klentak should find another if possible

1B: Hoskins (or trade for pitching); Kingery, Quinn? temporarily - move Bohm to 1B if Rhys is traded. He certainly has work to do whether he's a Phillie or not.

2B: Kingery

3B: bring back Galvis if possible.

SS: Segura (but three strikes you're out on hustling!)

LF: McCutchen

CF: Committee. Herrera must be given an opportunity per MLB policy thru Phillies or trade; Kingery & McCutchen (occasional), Bruce & Quinn (health pending)

RF: Harper

Rotation: Nola, Arietta, FA, FA, other - I thought Cole Irvin was worthy of a bounce-back opp. At least one of Eickhoff, Velasquez, Eflin (1st-yr arb) or Pivetta will return (Pivetta is not arb-eligible) and whoever he (or they) is, he will be the long man. Smyly may be a minor-league deal w/ invite. Vargas will probably be opted out by Phillies. Eventually we'll see Howard, Medina and Lindow (them and Bohm will be invitees of course).

Bullpen (8): Pivetta, Neris, Dominguez, Robertson, Morgan; Hughes & Neshek may return but are F.A.-eligible.

Phillies have $57 million to spend this offseason before the luxury tax, which includes a $21MM AAV for Realmuto and some returning players. It's 20% per every $1 over but I think the Phillies can afford it or this year. Some clean-up next year (Arietta) will probably allow us a bit more flexibility to go back under but that's a post for next September.

Depth: this is important to address. I will say that Reading's 1st place finish will help the Phillies in 2020 & 2021.

Projections

I think the schedule, offense staying healthy, and getting pitchers will allow the Phillies to win 90. They were on a 94-win pace entering the Dodgers' series (Game 55). Minimum: 86 wins; Max: 95. World Series 2020? Anything goes in the postseason as the Nats-Dodgers series taught us. And Reading didn't make it past the first round and they were 1st in their division. You only need to get there and play sound fundamental baseball, outplaying your opponent. It's a crap-shoot.

Preview of the 2020 Season

The 2020 schedule is an interesting one. A mix of stretches of difficulty because of who their facing and where they're playing. The Phillies will need a strong opening road trip (@ MIA & @ NYM) and will need to take advantage of their home schedule - they need to win or sweep series' at home and avoid getting swept themselves (no more than once every six weeks). One such stretch of home games is ten right after the all-star game and they play a total of 19 on the road and 21 at home after that til the 10th. Those are the critical games. May is also a home-dominated month.

First 4 series (11): 7-4
May (27 games): 14-13 or 15-12
All-star break to 9/10: 31-20

Total in those games: 52-37; 37-36 rest of way = 89-73 and that's definitely a wild card and probably the division.

Of course it doesn't allow for a high margin of error but they won't need it if they stay healthy. I'll preview the roster moves that make this record possible shortly.

Season In Review

It is over. Game 162 ends with a loss. The Phillies won the final series of the season after getting swept out of DC and end the year with the same record as 2012: 81-81. The team scored 774 runs (middle of the majors and top ten in NL) and allowed 794 runs for a differential of 20 in favor of opponents. We allowed 753 ER for an ERA of 4.53 (middle of the majors and fifth highest in MLB - not good).

The turning point this year was the series vs the Dodgers at CBP as the calendar turned to June. Before that series, we were 33-22. Our 4.09 ERA was high but slightly better than the middle of the majors. It was 6th lowest in the NL. We scored 267 runs (4.85 per game) good for middle of majors and 7th highest in the majors. We scored six runs in the first two games of the three game set then McCutchen went down and we lost the finale 8-0.

The series shouldn't have been a turning point. We had enough time to find an internal candidate for the lead-off spot but no one stepped up. We also had several incidents of lack of accountability (no meetings; four hustling incidents plus two other mentions) and certainly there was at least one breakdown in communication (Cesar's punishment) that leads me to believe that Gabe has to go. Not going after pitching also proved a mistake but a justified decision at the time. Now, it's up to Klentak or he's at risk in 2020. Here's the results from games 56 to 162:

A complete reversal in offense & defense and record: 48-59; 507 R scored (we drop from 7th highest to 7th lowest in NL; avg was 4.74/gm); 4.74 ERA (we drop from 6th lowest to 5th highest in NL). We also allowed 5.21 RPG and our -51 run differential in that span took us from +28 after the 55th game to -20 overall.

Our ERA being in the middle of the pack shows that it was not a pitcher's year. Options to fix this include ball manufacture & storage, change in approach, change in strike zone (already been proposed with the change in IBB) and changing the height of the mound. I will not delve any further into the high MLB ERA. As for the Phillies, the pitchers were clearly not effective and there was hindsight to suggest they wouldn't materialize. I still think the decision to be most aggressive on offense (and subsequently defense) was correct and both were on pace to work out after 55 games. At the deadline, the decision to bring bounce-back candidates was also sound but clearly didn't work and that approach must not happen again. Unfortunately, the deadline more pertains to prospects. Phillies had non that were trade-able after the acquisitions of Realmuto & Segura but they could have called Keuchel.

It is also worth noting the team's decisions the last 5-7 years have failed more than 50% of the time, maybe even 80% failure. That is as weird as the last two years of free agency have gone. Here's hoping the team's luck turns around and the right calls are made this offseason and beyond. My next entry will be released soon: Preview of the 2020 Schedule.

Evaluation of the Phillies Season: Offense - No Pitching Entry Coming

The Phillies have been eliminated from post-season contention. In my previous post, I do blame Klentak and Kapler fairly equally but given their contract status, it looks more likely that Klentak will be the one to stay. We shall see. Expect at least some coaching change beyond getting a new hitting coach as Charlie doesn’t want the job in 2020 – thank you for stepping in! Come Oct or Nov 2020, Klentak or MacPhail may be gone. I am not going to grade the pitchers this year given that no one really performed well (even Nola took a step  back).

I wish we could dump almost everyone but Nola but what depth do we have in AAA? Spencer Howard (tremendous AA season), Adonis Medina & Ethan Lindow? I’d love to see at least three more names. Shame. Klentak must spend on pitching this year and Middleton must be open to going over the luxury tax threshold. Hamels (3.92 ERA this year, 3.95 in last 3 yr) still can help us (1-yr $20MM w/ $15MM option or 2-yr $32.5MM?). Not sure if we should trade for someone but if a team wants to take Herrera off our hands for pitching, Klentak should strongly consider it.

Without further ado, it is time to evaluate the team’s (79-78) offensive performance from an individual standpoint. As usual I will go in defensive order (2 C, 3-6 IF, 7-9 OF & a few bench players) and use my usual system (F, D, C, C+, B-, B, B+, A- & A).

Catching

JT Realmuto was the team MVP. He stepped it up offensively during the last two trimesters of the season, being the lone rep in the All-Star Game. With his injury, workload (580 PAs, 5.5 gm/wk  -too much for a catcher), and the team’s status of mot contending, it looks like his .275/.328/.493/.820 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) line with 25 HR, 83 RBI, and 9/10 in SB will be final. Looking at the game logs, he’s only had maybe 3-4 bad games and 2 of them came in the midst of 7-10-day-long slumps. Certainly worthy of Silver Slugger consideration and a few top 5 MVP votes. Defensively, he’s been consistent year-round. He cut down the most runners in all of MLB and is one of the better game-callers & pitch framers in MLB. His defensive prowess only adds to his case for MVP votes. I agree with Harper that if JT does not get a Gold Glove, then the award truly is a joke. I also think JT deserves the Platinum GG (given to the best defender in each league) and it should be one of Klentak’s highest priorities to extend JT. It will be up to Kapler or the next manager to give him a few more days off/ DH games in interleague play so that he can last (and of course perform) thru the length of that contract. Grade: A-/ A (94%); STAY!!!

Knapp was seldom-used. His 140 PAs so far and my projection of 165 ( JT’s injury), is very low for even a back-up catcher. More PAs would have helped him stay fresh offensively but he is not, nor ever was, projected to be a starter, even on a mediocre team. If Klentak can find a serviceable back-up to JT, great. It is not a high priority. Grade: C (73%); go if possible

Infield

1B Hoskins: Oh he has some work to do. Fell off a cliff with everyone else. Eighty-plus (80) RBIs, >120 combined BB+HBP and 30 HRs is nothing to frown at but the inconsistency needed work long before this year. His BABIP & K-rate are consistent from last year. If he puts in the same work this winter as Kingery did last winter, lord help any team facing Rhys in 2020. Grade: C+/B- (79%)

2B Hernandez: Oh, one of the biggest non-hustlers on the team but our top hitter or on-base guy from year-to-year. I give him a C+ (76%). He’s now crossed into under-performing his arbitration value territory. However, his skills are necessary at the 6 or 7 spots in the line-up. It’s a dilemma but not too tough a decision.

3B Franco: Oh the demotion. Oh the inconsistency. Oh the lack of versatility. But the defense! Once a touted prospect coming up, he has yet to hit .270 or better in consecutive years. The demotion was a surprise but probably deserved. His treatment by Kapler really wasn’t deserved. Demotion had no effect on his performance. Grade: C (72%); Bye!

SS Segura: Gosh darn-it you need to hustle! Ok, that’s out of the way. We got him to not strike out so did he succeed: 12% of PAs, so he did! Nearly a career low in Ks actually. I would’ve put him 6^th in the line-up with his low-K rate but he did the job and the K rate didn’t vary much with leverage (although it climbed to 14% with runners on). Would’ve liked to see more BB & SB, too. Grade: C+/ B- (78%). Stay for three months then reevaluate based on hustle.

Bench: Kingery (B+/ 87%) had a great bounce-back year, just a bit more consistency needed. The rest of the bench was inconsistent.

Next year: C: JT & (Knapp or other); 1B: Hoskins; 2B: Kingery; 3B: Galvis (please bring him back), SS: Segura. IF bench needs improvement.

Outfield

The only one to grade is Harper: not a bad first year but not amongst the best he could have. Excellent in high leverage and clutch situations. Needed to help carry the offense. Grade: B (84%). I’m looking for more hitting in lower leverage situations.

I’m very pumped for the OF depth in S.T. next year. McCutchen and Harper get two spots w/ Kingery able to play here as well (I’m hoping 2B mostly) followed by Bruce, Williams (can we get him some more PAs?), Quinn (good speed when healthy but I’ll take it), Haseley, possibly Herrera plus I’m hoping we can re-sign Dickerson.

Overall Score

You may have noticed that I was being lenient against how bad they performed overall vs. expectations. You are correct. The avg is a B- (81.5%). The front office and coaches get some blame and the pitching was terrible. Factor in the blame I assigned in my last post, we get a 75% (C).

Back to the offense: I did a projection based on the “stay category” plus minor improvements for everyone, especially for those where injuries held them back. The result: 86% (maybe 87%). Applying half of that improvement to 157 games results in 82-83 wins with five to go, which would at least tie us with the Mets and Cubs. Add a .500 record in the last 5 games and we’re at 84-87 wins.

And that’s not considering the team was 33-22 after the first 55, which is a 94-win pace in 157 games – 2-4 gms back of the Braves right now but we’ll lower it to 2 because I project a better head-to-head record (yes we already won the season series). Factor in Alec Bohm, too. Now, all I ask is to salvage one win in this current Nats series and to win this weekend’s series vs. Marlins for an 82-80 record.

Awards

Recognition for their 2019 seasons should be high for JT as I mentioned but Haseley, Kingery, Nola, Harper, Neris (80-85 SV%, 2.97 ERA) and Alvarez & Suarez (3-3.5 ERA in ~50 IP each), and Dickerson (.300 AVG, .900 OPS w/ PIT & PHI) may get some consideration for the lesser known awards. Many of our guys are up for at least a resiliency award in 2020: Irvin, Nola, Arrieta, McCutchen, Herrera, and Hoskins are just a few names plus our entire bullpen (injuries). Some, of course, may not get the award as Phillies.

Enjoy the winter. Should be a suspenseful off-season at first. That excites me.

Also of note, the defense improved this year and slightly more than expected. Still had a few rough games but excellent overall!

Evaluation of the Phillies 2019 Season - Front Office Edition

Well this season is not going according to plan. Of course, that's typical of baseball. However, this is not just baseball being baseball: Things should have gone better especially within a few games of McCutchen's injury. Despite their struggles, the team is 2.0 games back of the wild card with 20 to play. The Cubs are in control but Arizona, Milwaukee, and the Mets are within four games - that's one good series away from leading the pack. The Nats currently hold a 3-game lead for the top spot. My prediction for the Phillies is barely out of the playoffs come game 162 but an 85-77 record (five more wins than last year), again not what we envisioned after signing Harper and doing so well to start the year. It cost John Mallee. Who's next in terms of coaches and front office? I outline that here.

Middleton

He got Bryce, extended MacPhail & Klentak and pushed for Mallee’s firing but those moves aren’t working out. He does pay attention to the fans’ input and did have the foresight to rebuild after 2012 (and pushed Amaro to start the process  out) but he delayed telling us about the extensions and was extremely slow to react to us in the Mallee situation. I don’t think any sort of change in ownership should be mandated by MLB but the accountability has to improve. Grade: C+/B- (79.5%)

MacPhail

All I can say is he has been largely absent from the view of fans outside his two pressers. Another presser was needed for sure. Given his extension and his role largely being invisible anyway, I’m ok with keeping him but no more extensions. Grade: F+ (58%)

Klentak

Ultimately relying solely on the offense to carry our team was a mistake but a decision that could have gone either way given the need for flexibility at the trade deadline. He acquired a lot of guys recently and they’ve helped keep the team afloat better than the Opening Day crop of starters. Injuries, of course, really hurt the bullpen this year but If I were to tell you (at the beginning of his tenure) that every one of Klentak’s signings (Bryce was Middleton’s) would be a disaster, I would be laughed at. Yes, I’ll give him a little credit for setting up the Harper signing. But what are the odds of injuries and poor performance, especially these players? No, I have no qualms with how careful he was during F.A. but his dugout coaching decisions were awful. Hiring Kapler was the worst mistake he made (20/10 vision based on Gabe’s previous [lack of] coaching experience/ success). Firing MacKanin may have been worse but at the very least, he was fired a year too early.

No more extensions, especially with Mike Trout essentially an Angel for life. Matt MUST demote Kapler to a front-office assistant or fire him altogether. Will that occur? There’s no guarantee but the odds increased a few weeks ago and the move MUST happen. I’ll then give Matt two years to get this team up and running (coaching staff) but the roster MUST make the postseason next year. Yes, the 2020 roster (2019 + Klentak cleaning it up a bit) can make the postseason on their own. We won’t know how far they can go until we have at least a year of the new manager. Grade: F (50%)

Kapler

You knew where I stand based on my evaluation of Klentak. Gabe seldom uses the eye test. His players are out of touch with him (a la the recent Cesar Hernandez punishment). And there’s no knowing how far he can take this team if it makes the postseason this year or next. I’m willing to bet he doesn’t make the Fall Classic nor manage or coach a team again once he’s fired (outside shot of being a strength/ conditioning coach) but that’s his fault. Grade: F- (40%)

Roster & Coaches

The rest of the roster will be evaluated more closely toward the end of the season but I have some preliminary thoughts. I’d say Hernandez & Franco go and Segura stays at least a year. Bruce is under contract - KEEP HiM HERE!!! Gotta extend Realmuto with Knapp getting one more year. Not sure about the bullpen or rotation (demotions coming mostly). That’ll be addressed in F.A. Unfortunately, we’re stuck with Arietta but we could add Hamels. Definitely need some players in the minors to step up next year, which will give me a lot more hope for 2021 in addition to 2020. AA Reading won their division so I’m thinking that scenario will occur.

Manuel probably won’t want to stay on. The bullpen coach was dealt a bad hand with the injuries so he can stay but Young’s mound visits didn’t make a difference most of the time. Send him out. I think Dusty should be the next manager. He’s ready now (would’ve been ready this year if Matt had given MacKanin another year). The strength and conditioning philosophy all the way down needs to be reevaluated with all the injuries and inability of our pitchers to pitch deep into games. Does this require a change in S&C staff? Maybe. Most important is to extend some of these bullpen guys from the day they are signed (the month or so after the draft).

2019 Preview - Value vs. Contract

Welcome to opening day!!! Baseball is here and the Phillies look to contend again. They won 80 (it was an ugly road at the end) and improvements + use of a few what ifs look to get them to 87, probably 90-94. I started this entry about two weeks ago with the question, “Is this a make-or-break year for everyone on the roster?” However, this turned into more of a season preview as I expanded and edited. The answer to my initial question is: not everyone but the roster is becoming expensive. Arbitration, extensions, guys entering free agency soon (bullpen & Arietta) and a logjam of outfielders put almost everyone on the roster on alert. What will get them to below 87 or above 89? I have concluded that the rotation will be the biggest factor in determining success in combination with how Gabe Kapler manages games.

Rotation

Last year, the starting pitchers ruled the roost during the first five months. The team won most of the first 60 games and they recovered nicely after being swept out of San Francisco: with three consecutive series wins (6-3 record) against the tough NL Central. All of that was thanks to the rotation keeping them in games, especially after a late-April change to the back-end. Of course, Nola’s lasted all of 2019 and received third place in Cy Young voting. Behind Nola’s curve & control, Arietta did very until his knee started hurting. He and IF C. Hernandez played with an injury, and while that’s admirable, I prefer these guys hit the DL & heal than play thru it & be less or in-effective as a result. (Side note: If I later say something to the contrary, please redirect me here). Back to Arietta… he must last through the year as he’s due to get a third year if he’s effective.

Eflin will join Velasquez’s four-seamer and Pivetta’s curve to round out the rotation. They all had either break-out performances or seasons in the past and this is the last year they get to prove whether they stick. Arbitration is coming. And all of them - and most of the bullpen, too - are right-handed pitchers. If they’re effective, it’s no big deal. Last year thru mid-Aug, they were just that: 3.70 ERA thru 8/12 ranked 7^th but their 4.19 ERA since ranked 17^th in those respective spans. A lefty to help keep opposing hitters off-balance would probably have led to another 1-3 wins during that late-year skid plus another 4-6 during the 1^st four months, which is why the Phillies pursued those guys.

Defense & Gabe

Helping the pitchers will be better fielding performances and those will lead to better [defensive] decisions by Kapler & the staff. No one will be happier about that than Jake Arietta (lol!) if that becomes the case. The micromanaging of the line-up, pitching changes, substitutions, and defensive alignment was due, in part, to poor performance overall, except in some cases, including Nola being pulled on O.D. With Gabe, I hope “old habits die hard” doesn’t apply in the case of better performance. If he relies more on the eye test than he did last year, my hope will probably come to fruition, assuming better performances play out.

Relievers

Most of these guys are in their early arbitration or last year of free agent deals. Most tired up down the stretch due to Gabe’s constant changes. I see more veterans already & expectations from Gabe are now established, so that should help. But I really think Gabe was more of a factor than performances. And a related side note, I personally am sick and tired of all the pitching changes & playing match-ups throughout baseball. I approve of the soon-to-be-implemented pitchers-facing-2-3-plus-batters rule. For the Phillies, MLB.com considers the bullpen a top-ten in the majors.

Pitching

In conclusion, this is probably the area the Phillies will improve on in July as the trade deadline approaches either Keuchel, Kimbrel or trade for a lefty. The team doesn’t have too much room to play with before hitting the competitive balance (i.e. luxury) tax.

Hitting

The balance in the line-up between sluggers, hitters and on-base guys was already much improved with the additions before landing Harper. The 1-2 punch with him and Hoskins has already demonstrated its danger to opposing pitchers and managers. That combo could yield over 75-85 HRs! And I speak for most Phillies fans, team personnel and Harper himself in hoping that Bryce gets off to a good start in year 1 of his 13-year deal. Segura & Realmuto are now into arbitration with extensions likely forthcoming and both are contact hitters. McCutchen can hit or get on base, so he could see time anywhere in the line-up. Now, he’s not blocking anyone on the 40-man roster offensively or defensively like Santana did, but Andrew does need to perform or he may be traded – Herrera, Cousins, Quinn and Williams have skills the Phillies would like to utilize. MLB.com also shares this line of thinking, good balance this year compared to mostly on-base guys last year… ranking the Phillies a top-ten offense.

It is the improvement here and coin-flip probabilities in the rotation’s potential (thanks to only Nola proven and Arietta being a veteran) that leads me to list them as the main factor in determining this year’s success. Gabe is also a factor (could be equal, more or less – depends on his in-game moves) but I think good performances will result in less strategy. Go Phillies!

On Machado, Harper, Arietta and free agency

Manny Machado will spend at least the first two years of his potential HoF career out of the postseason, but the now former Oriole is used to that and now makes just over $1.15MM per paycheck. Harper is still unsigned and the rumors continue to swirl - now it's the Dodgers getting [back?] in on the action. I think he gets to the Phillies for 33MM/ yr over probably ten years but lots of details still in the works. Last year at this time, Jake Arietta signed for what could be 3 yr/ $75MM instead of 7 yr/ $120MM+. Alex Rodriguez recently chimed in on the long free agency and Cardinals Pitcher Adam Wainwright fears a mid-season walk-out.

On negotiations with Harper

I'd go with $32.5MM AAV for nine years (age 26-34) with opt-out after five years. If he decides to stay, he gets $5MM, and then then the options: $25MM or $5MM buyout at 550 PAs last year (or 475 & 625 PAs last two years) or $20MM mutual option at lesser amt of PAs. Boras is trying to get a 3-yr opt out and that actually may work in the Phillies favor long term: age 29-31 seasons may be the only time we contend. If we get Trout (unlikely but not rare either), we could contend longer - great bargaining chip to use on Harper and we then have two star outfielders (both former first-round picks BTW) for 2022. Harper & Trout in their primes together for at least 2 years. If we don't get Trout, we could still renegotiate with Harper or let him walk (we must be developing - cannot have a repeat of 2012-2017). In the former case, I am reminded of A-Rod's 10-yr/ $275MM contract, but that time, we'll probably do another opt-out after 3 years. At least, that's what I'd offer. In all likelihood, I'll be fine with 10-11 guaranteed with a player opt-out and the 25/20/5 option for one (maybe 2) years after the end of deal. Mutual buyout after 6 years could also work. I think both sides will be happy money & options/ opt-outs wise.

On CBA, free agency and player payment

Let's ignore that these star players make too much already and talk about how much control teams have for most in their primes (6 years before free agency) and how arbitration undervalues many of these players. Too much control, too much undervalue (look at Nola's recent negotiations) when these players would make 2-3 times as much on the free agent market. In my humble opinion, I'd favor one less year of control and arbitration a year earlier (so an avg of 1.5-2 yr of ML minimum instead of 2.5-3 yr) in exchange for signing deadline: Teams must submit proposal (options, opt-outs, and base salary - obviously would be based on negotiations) to FAs & MLB office by 4:30 PM ET 2/10 and the players must pick (sign offer sheet) and notify team & MLB by 1:30 PM ET 2/14. They could sign sooner, but once they do, a physical must be performed by 2:30 PM ET (submit results or certificate of completion to MLB by 4:30 PM that day) the 3rd day (e.g. sign 2/14, physical due 2/17; sign 2/11, physical due 2/14). Quite frankly, I'm getting tired of all the back and forth from teams on Harper.

On the possible lockout?

I do not think the players will walk out this year but sometime next year if more star FAs are unsigned in February, expect a strike that year.

If any news comes of Harper or any renegotiations of CBA, I'll provide an opinion. Enjoy the games!

Right before Spring Training

With the latest news of the trade for Realmuto & signing Nola to an extension and workouts beginning soon, the Phillies' offseason has officially ended - wait... What about Harper or Machado or others discussed in the media? They are now going to be like Arrieta last year - Spring signees.

Moves:

Phillies got OF McCutchen, C Realmuto, SS Segura and agreed to arbitration with - I think it was - 10+ players (including the deal with Nola - effectively $6MM this year with base + bonus and $8MM in second year makes this team friendly) and they did submit offers to the top free agents (reports are that the offers from all teams were much lower than expected but no specifics given) - we just have to wait. No left-handed starter nor additional bullpen help. However, they could still sign some folks in the early part of S.T., and they still have Hunter & Nicaso in the 2nd year of deals. They sent a few guys over in those trades - most notably Santana for Segura, allowing a better defense with Hoskins at 1B. Good depth in outfield and some depth at infield (either one could drastically improve/ trade of some of the arb players may be required if they sign Harper or Machado). Lots of names in the pitching category - quantity > quality this year. Not much depth at catcher with Alfaro gone but Knapp here.

Summary: Machado's comments haven't been well-received in Philly but at least we know going in... I'd welcome either of the two. Realmuto, Segura and even McCutchen give us hitters... walking is nice but hits are what drive in those runners. We didn't get a lefty starter or more outside bullpen help but the latter may still occur. This was a good off-season. Grade: B-. If we sign more, I'll revise the grade in another post.

Prospects:

They had to send over P prospect Sixto Sanchez for Realmuto so we'll see how that plays out in coming years. The Phillies publicly put the 20-year-old's work routine down, so if you're not going to be a bit more classy, then send him off - best of luck, Sixto! While we drafted well and Lehigh Valley ended last year with a .600 winning percentage, I don't see many call-ups that can help. Non-roster invitees and those on the 40-man are it for our internal depth - only Kimbrel, Moustakas, Harper and Machado can change the look.

Predicting the record:

This is a tough one without Harper or Machado. Let's try it:

• Rough end to last year -> not the lessons to learn but it was never about getting to the playoffs last year. They should avoid a long stretch of constant loosing. No effect.
• Schedule -> bit tougher this year but they did win in the third month last year, which was a great test against the NL Central. Little to no effect expected.
• Defense -> it was ugly last year and much improved this year but performance-wise despite Arietta & "shift-gate" but not much effect this year (half a game improvement)
  
  So far, we've added maybe a win.
  
  
• Rotation -> We don't have the depth to last the year if we have a lot of injuries. Assuming Nola & Arrieta (knee issue) perform on par with or better than last year and two of the next three spots get us through the 6th inning, we'll be ok. Let's subtract a half-win to account for low depth.
• Bullpen -> Add a win to account for decent depth. Pitching overall is +0.5 wins but could be +2 wins if the rotation performs like much of last year in terms of low injury count and high reliability from the younger starters.
• Offense -> we have a more balanced approach with Segura, McCutchen, Realmuto and Hoskins able to hit and improved play from Kingery vs Franco and OBP guys Hernandez (broken ankle most of last year) and Herrera. Depth here could change but right now, add four wins (Moustakas adds one (1) win and if we add Harper or Machado, add 2.5 to 3.5 wins).
  
  So far +5.5 wins (84-86 wins and 76-78 losses)
  
• Kapler -> if he didn't do the micromanaging moves last year, we'd be mathematically viable til game ~160 last year. Some moves were justified but most were not and if that's the case this year, we're in for a rough ride. This will be the secondary deciding factor.

It looks like we have two camps depending on Kapler and each camp has up to 5 wins of variability due to Klentak. Best-case could be 99 wins but that's a huge jump. I'd say our ceiling with Mach. or Harper, good Gabe and depth lasting the year is 94 wins. Our floor is 79 without Mach or Harper, depth doesn't last, and Gabe is bad but the likelihood of progression from most guys puts our floor at 82-80 and our most likely to be 84-88 with inside track on 90. My call: 84-78. I will revise in the aforementioned separate post as signings occur and the roster takes shape.

Pre-All-Star-Break Check-In: trade rumors, potential representatives, Kapler, contention

The Phillies are ten games over .500 (1.5 GM back of the Braves & 2nd WC leaders) and I project them to enter the All-Star break with a 54-41 record despite a double header and all road games. They also have an 18-7 record in 1-R games, but mostly it's the players doing well. The rest of July except the last two days (Red Sox) is fairly easy with 3 vs the Padres (37-51), 3 vs the Dodgers (47-39), 4 @ Reds (38-49). This will allow them to buy at the deadline.

Who's going to the All-Star game in DC? Aaron Nola is a sure lock after winning his 11th game (T1 NL, T3 MLB) and if he continues to pitch well (top ten in most pitching categories), he'll likely be in the top 5 in the NL Cy Young vote! Herrera won't start in the game, but he, Dominguez, Hernandez, and Eflin have the strongest cases with Hoskins an outside shot. However, considering this is the first-year they're contending, two will be justified and also great (1st time since Lee & Brown went in 2013). Some players are having woes and inconsistencies but they're winning despite Kapler: yes, less questionable moves but they still happen. They are greater than the sum of their parts - not to the same degree as the Eagles, but close.

Congrats to those who are ultimately selected and good luck. As for the trade deadline, the Phils will buy and while Klentak's phone bill will likely be the most expensive out of all the GMs this month, he will only buy at the right price. With the Orioles requiring at least one of the team's big prospects for Machado, it would be best/ more likely to get him in FA and go after Beltre or Moustakas. Former Phillies Hamels and Happ are the lefty starters they could acquire but the rotation is doing well enough that acquiring a lefty reliever would be a better move.

An exciting month of baseball so far and it just got started - Go Phillies!

Phillies Pitching: Making the Right Call

Before I discuss the pitchers and their roles, a quick check-in about a week of games played: 4-5 record but 3-1 in 1-R/ extra-inning games. I'm not entirely sure that Kapler is doing a good job based on those numbers but it is a small sample. I think the 4-5 record is a better W-L record to use. The deep line-up is mostly responsible for the 3-1 record.

So, who is on the short leash in the rotation?

Nola is stretched out, and pulling him early is clearly the only sure-bet-bad-decision. Arrieta's debut was rough so he'll need his next start or two to be stretched. Both are allotted 7 innings, which is 2.5 turns through the line-up, at minimum, but more likely 3 turns through. Ben Lively and Vince Velasquez are looking terrible but worthy of a 'pen spot if they do not improve. They each can manage nearly one turn through the line-up, which is all you need of a long man. I'll give Vince two more starts. Ben gets a bit longer. And both get to face the line-up twice at most. Eickhoff gets at least a month upon his return and could also get the short leash. Eflin gets about a month but he, Leiter, Jr, and Thompson should, upon return, be in the bullpen due to performance history, depth, and/ or injury history. They get one turn through as long men (maybe 10-11 batters faced if crusing) and slightly longer (10-15 batters faced) if starting. And Nick Pivetta had a stellar performance the other night with Franco's 4 RBIs. Keep it up and he's on the longer leash. Otherwise, short leash and/ or AAA, then bullpen if he can't make it in the majors. And when Eschelman debuts, long leash!

And in the bullpen, who - besides the injured Hunter & Neshek - are your long men?

Garcia might. Morgan could. I'd say Neris is your traditional closer but could occasionally be used in non-save/ longer-save/ late-middle relief. Everyone else is a 2-to-4-out guy. Most of your long men are also former/ spot starters, as mentioned above. We need Hunter and Neshek back. So far, the bullpen is improving each series. Good to see. Let's hope they can produce outs efficiently.

Overall?

Overall, if guys are cruising, let them continue to face batters. The aforementioned numbers are merely guidance. If they don't cruise, then we have a problem, obviously, and the coaches will have to intervene. If no improvement, then it's to the 'pen for most and to AAA for some.

Good luck!

Phils Offense: Balancing Playing Time

Addendum 2 to my opinion & Phils on a roll - W 4/18 @ 9:45 AM EDT:

The Phillies are on the road playing the Braves and won in the 10th inning, continuing a good record in close &extra-inning games. Everyone is executing just enough to win - some struggles. The pitching is coming around and that made for some easy (read: "traditional") decisions. The offense has sputtered as of late but I'm not worried. I am concerned about J.P. Crawford's struggles against lefties... 2/27 against them. Small sample, short career and slow starts the last few promotions for him are mitigating factors, so I'll give him more time but Kapler will have to start thinking about resting him vs a lefty. And summarizing this article: We have 8 line-up spots and 12 players (7 and 10 not counting the catcher) - good depth! Florimon & Altherr are probably getting the least playing time - but expect them to get at least 2-4 GM per week.

Addendum to my opinion - Tu 4/10 @ 12:30 PM EDT:

Maikel Franco, by virtue of the last three years, does not deserve as many starts but his bat is hot and thus, needs to continue to see increased playing time. Williams' go-ahead, eventual-game-winning, PH HR shows he deserves more playing time despite a history of increased Ks & high BABIP. Right now, it appears that the odd men out are J.P. Crawford (extremely low AVG) and Aaron Altherr (age, experience, injury history, versatility) followed by Kingery (age, versatility), Santana (age/ experience, lower offensive ceiling than Hoskins) and Franco (history). The point still remains: deep line-up is making for tough decisions overall but I do see opportunity for more regular playing time for everyone.

------


I see that Herrera only started four games out of the first six, Franco drove in 4 R yesterday, Hoskins is hot, Crawford is not, and Williams is now curious as to what's driving [down] his [lack of] playing time. This needs to change but there's a balance. So, I'm taking a look at the offense to see who should get most of the starts:

1. Pitchers will be the next entry - I answer "Who's on the short leash in the rotation?" and "Who besides Neshek & Hunter can go 2-3 innings?" although the former question is more important.
2. This is easy: both Knapp & Alfaro should play equally as both deserve it - promising first impressions last year & the last two Septembers respectively and both had good Springs and can call a game - at least better than Rupp. How will Kapler find playing time here? It's primarily the schedule (the day game after a night game or limiting consecutive starts) but offensive production, pitcher requests (a la Halladay & Chooch 2010), match-ups, or health could play into the equation, especially late in games.
3. Santana is your primary first baseman but as a veteran in his 30s, he needs and could handle two off days per week. This will help the OF defense a bit as Hoskins is only just starting to learn LF.
4. Hernandez should get most of the starts here as he is certainly become productive over the last few years, it's his natural position and he could be traded. This is also Kingery's natural position so he needs to see some time here, too.
5. Franco is the guy that - per the last few years - doesn't deserve to start more than four games per week except when his bat is hot plus the Phils are looking to trade him. He'll have to platoon with Kingery and possibly Crawford.
6. Crawford needs to see his coaches right now because he's not hitting - all of the players, including JP, are working counts well though. Putting Kingery in here 1-2 times a week for now is the right move.
7. Review of earlier post: Hoskins is a hot bat but his .471 avg will come down closer to .300 (probably ~.315). Defense needs usually require him to start at 1B once per week and be moved there for extra innings. Altherr is probably the best bet as back-up.
8. Herrera should have started O.D. and should play nearly everyday with Altherr also backing him up. Perhaps Hernandez, who has played CF professionally, can start here once a week, too, but Herrera should be the first off the bench.
9. Williams and Altherr will platoon and Kingery can play once a week here. I'd say Williams should play here most as Altherr will still get plenty of PAs despite both being young - Altherr has more experience.

Kingery should be your first bat of the bench but he'll be starting 3-4 games per week. Altherr is your primary back-up OF. I - and Kapler - are fans of giving guys regular rest and regular playing time. So, with his willingness to use his bench more and - as I've discussed this offseason - that it's a three-man bench after the 2nd Catcher... there will be ample playing time for others. You'll see most guys end up between 200 & 550 PAs as opposed to between 150 & 650 PAs during the Charlie Manuel era. Lack of embracing BBs and especially less playing time for the bench did hurt Charlie and his team during the post-season and late in his tenure.

Kapler, find the balance between analytics and traditions like the eye test. Good luck!

Dear Mr. Kapler

Dear Mr. Kapler,

I appreciate that you are going to listen to the fans and that there is a plan. Those will go a long way in gaining (regaining?) respect in Philadelphia. I'm no expert but it doesn't take a baseball wizard to see that there are risks to this plan and there are some experts who prefer Klentak's plan. Please implement that. Reviewing...

Do not pull Nola or Arrietta early. This will save innings later in the year. Each get 90 in their next start. Pivetta, Lively and when he comes up, Eshelman are good to stay in given their low experience. Two to three turns through the line-up for them. Velasquez needs to be given a four-start notice if he falters again or it's to the bullpen. He gave up a run on four outs and three runs on eight outs before he allowed lots of consecutive base-runners - what he did before that is a good starting point for a bullpen spot. That was not your fault nor is the absence of Hunter & Neshek and most of your long men. When they return, things will be better if you use these guys effectively. Most of the long men are going to be starters this year (typical injury & ineffectiveness-of-others depth). Those players in that category, when starting, will usually get two turns through the line-up but might be pulled early, then another long-man steps in. That's Klentak's plan. Oh, by the way, why did you not stretch these guys late in Spring Training?

I like the "eight-of-ten approach" to your line-ups but you might want to maximize run production early like Franco needed to start against Harvey tonight (Maik is 3-for-8 against him) yet I understand the need to give opportunities to Kingery and Franco is the perfect (probably only) candidate from which to take ABs - Crawford might also be a candidate depending on how things go. And for late games, I'm ok with the need for best defense but Hoskins' bat is too important to take out late. Move him to 1B instead - Santana is similar offensively to Rhys but Rhys is more likely to out-OPS Carlos than vice versa plus Santana's defense at 1B is rumored to be similar to Howard. All this - and the Utility and RF platoons - will become clearer late. Equal opportunities dependent on age & experience!

I wish you luck. I really do. This year is a turning point in the rebuild. The guys played .500 ball from the All-Star Break on. We need to maintain that to attract free agents. Also, what will deter them is them being on a short leash, regardless of team success and financial benefit. We maintain that, get a few break-outs and supplement that in July and the coming winter, we have the postseason made in 2019. Heck, what we have now could get us the Wild Card (and yes, you do have to push for the division!), but only if we take advantage of an easy schedule at first. Each month gets progressively harder for two reasons: more series vs. last year's playoff teams plus the grind of a 162-game season. Keep that perspective! I love the boldness. I love the messages. I definitely think some change is needed and some unconventional things need to be done but temper it. Not everyone is into it - fans, players or even executives. Know when. And my view of leadership is knowing what to say AND - more importantly - whether to say. it.

Humbly

Jaron

2019 and Beyond!

Ok, so I titled this after Buzz Lightyear. Appropriate, considering we decided to rebuild about 3 years ago and it's almost complete! Went by fast... not exactly 186,400 miles per second (speed of light) but it seems only yesterday the team made that decision.

The 2018 roster is looking good. You'll see some adjustments later - Kingery, Rupp, Florimon, and Eschelman most notably - but who's in on Opening Day & the depth are pretty clear. As we know, 2018 is all about seeing who stays for the next four years and who does not. This entry attempts to look at how the 2019 "40-Man" Roster will be composed - from the minors, majors or outside the organization - based on 2018 success and also roster status. Let's begin:

Rotation

Aaron Nola, though young, has shown remarkable consistency in the last few years. He is everything we expected when we drafted him. This year is the last steps of his development: stay healthy and get Cy Young votes. He'd have to win 20 on his own or the team would have to contend for the wild card, but he sure could with a good fastball, decent sinker, incredible curve, and a recently-added change-up. If he performs and makes 30+ starts, the team sure would at least knock out arbitration.

Jake Arrieta is also a sure bet. Over time, he'll decline as his velocity has decreased over time. Still, a veteran with recent success is enough evidence for me... and if he declines faster, there's an out after 2019.

Tom Eschelman, being the rookie looks like the only sure bet. Most players can be successfully evaluated at 2-3 years in and that's exactly what the Phillies have been doing for most guys. I am very eager to see how he does.

I can guarantee two guys will be successful: one of Pivetta, Velasquez, and Eickhoff and the other being from the whole depth chart minus Tom, Jake, and Aaron. Most of the guys will succeed in 1-2 turns through the line-up but not being able to go through the order one or two more time... those guys will - for 2019 at least - end up in the bullpen as long men.

Overall in the rotation, we will see movement during and after 2018. There will be room in performance and roster status (due to depth needed for injuries) for 1-2 free agents. I will make an exception to the no 2008 rule and accept Cole Hamels if he wants to return. He's still very good - in fact, he is in the top 15 with Arietta and Nola.

2019: A core of one free agent to supplement Nola & Arietta, an evaluation period for Eschelman, and lots of overlap with long men & spot starts.

Bullpen

I can guarantee T Hunter & P Neshek will be on the 2019 roster. L Garcia and especially A Morgan could drop as they're nearing arbitration. H Neris is probably staying on in 2019 by both performance and roster status. We'll have 3-4 long men (2-3 inning guys), as previously mentioned.

2019: good core of our two signings, lots of long men, Neris as closer.

Offense

The bench will be, after OF 4 & C 2 (discussed below), Florimon (utility) & Valentin (40-man roster)... OF Quinn could be on as well but his injury history will keep him in AAA to start.

1. Pitchers: Again, Nola & Arietta remain atop the rotation with the rest dependent on 2018 success and Eschelman getting the 5th starter role. Velasquez, Pivetta, Eickhoff, Lively, Eflin, Thompson, and Lieter Jr - called "The 7" - are needed for rotation depth but for opening week(s) 2019, only one of them will be part of the rotation. The rest will join the 'pen as long men/ spot starters with Hunter (if he's not traded), Neshek, Neris, possibly Garcia but absent Morgan. We're good in numbers for 2019 w/ one coming from outside the org but which of The 7 wins the opening week job is unknown.
   
2. Catchers: Alfaro begins his evaluation period and Knapp continues his. Alfaro has downside and upside while Knapp stole the job from Rupp and thus has slight upside. Both Alfaro and Knapp are going to be on in 2019 and we'll be great. Some downside factors in later.
3. Santana at 1B in 2019 is a guarantee just like Arietta. After his contract ends, Hoskins takes over in 2021 (for 2019, Hoskins remains in the OF and is discussed further under #6).
4. Cesar Hernandez and Scott Kingery performing well, due to the former's high arbitration, makes for an interesting battle in the 2nd half of 2018. The best bet, if Cesar does well, is to trade him but if not, he'll be a guarantee for 2019 and get most of the starts. Both might need to be utility players if there's no trade and both can be by past or present history.
5. This is becoming a bit monotonous but this is a make-or-break-year at 3B for Maikel Franco. If he holds his own around a .270-AVG, he could be on the roster in 2019 as back-up (can't happen for 2020 due to arb status). He could be the primary if he hits .275 or better. His bat recently exploded in ST but the opinions are stacked against him.
6. J.P. Crawford will begin a two-year evaluation period. He'll have help from the bench and from other starters. He is the better overall player than Galvis, who's defense will sorely be missed.
7. The defense will be down here but Rhys Hoskins won't be out there all the time and his offense (despite the poss. of the league adjusting to him) should be more than enough to overcome a low/ negative dWAR. He's guaranteed in 2019.
8. Herrera is a guarantee in 2019. No need to review the success he's known over years of hard work in the year before and the years after his Rule 5 selection. A rule 5 center fielder?! Reminds me how we built the 2005-2012 rosters!!! And if Herrera can learn OF defense, so can Rhys.
9. Two outfielders here: Williams & Altherr. The latter is guaranteed a positive WAR based on last year's performance, especially if he's healthy. The former is in his three-year evaluation period but so far so good. Gabe will be able to find playing time, especially with a four-man bench most of the year.

In terms of WAR, the offense here will be fine overall but most of the players will end up with peaks of 2-4 per year... excellent but not like Chase or Ryan or J-Roll. However, break-outs in 2018 could change that.  Plus, the coaching staff is an unknown, too. There's opportunity in 2019 for free agents in all areas... offensively, Machado is a probably yes, Harper is possible and Trout (after 2020) is definite. Anyway, 2019 looks good and 2020 looks good too as (1) some will complete their evaluation periods, (2) some becomes arb-eligible, we still (3) have Santana and possibly other future free agents, plus (4) a ton more players come up (Sixto Sanchez).

Great job on the rebuild, front office! Go Phillies!

Spring Training Update: Kelce, Pitching, Alfaro, Middlebrooks, Williams, Kepler

Well, it's time for a quick Phillies Spring Training update as the games start to be played.

The championship tour continues for Eagles C Jason Kelce - he visited the Phillies and gave a speech even more profane-laden than at the parade. He also spent Sunday in Manyunk with Avalon String Band. Let's see if the championship momentum benefits the Phillies as well on their quest to accelerate the rebuild.

So far, the Phillies haven't found a veteran starting pitcher but have announced that Nola would be the Opening Day starter. They are talking to Arietta's agent, the infamous Scott Boras. Price needs to come down to a 3-year deal or they'll have to get creative. And the players' union does not like rebuilds nor teams waiting for next year's stellar free agent class. Also, the players get one last chance to improve pace of play or the commissioner will take over but there is one change: a limit to total team meetings on the mound except for injuries and long extra-inning games.

On the offensive side, the non-rostered OF Will Middlebrooks broke his leg the other day but is upbeat. His slim chances before the injury have gotten even leaner. Jorge Alfaro is ready to go as shown by his grand slam the other day. His homer and Williams denting Kapler's rental car are great signs.

Ultimately, it takes (1) 11 starters, 8 of which need to be <4.0 ERA at an avg of 125+ IP per starter (3.75 ERA overall) plus (2) a bullpen holding leads (~4 ERA) and the offense scoring more runs than the pitching gives up (likely). A fourth factor is defense but all you ask of them is to limit the blunders, make the catchable plays and get some assists, which the Phillies should be able to do.

Then comes Kapler taking a very unconventional approach: he is, as he should, aiming for the NL East. Instead of the traditional team meeting he took them to dinner. They get up later and work out less, emphasizing quality of work over quantity. He even has minor league umps calling balls and strikes during bullpen sessions. Let's see if his approach works.

And the Phillies held a moment of silence for Roy Halladay during the opening remarks of Grapefruit Game 1. So sad.

Season Preview on Pitchers & Catchers Report Day

First off, Happy Valentine's Day, folks, welcome to Spring Training (pitchers & catchers report today!) and a huge congratulations to the E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!! First-time Superbowl Champions! The turn-around is remarkable: we all know what Chip did to Howie and the 7-9 record that year and so on. Two years later, Superbowl Champs! Wow! A key factor, after getting rid of the older players Chip brought in, was getting those on rookie contracts to perform: Nelson Agholor being the biggest example - the Phillies' version is Maikel Franco. And I just have to say, as a Mummer, thank you, Jason Kelce! What a speech, too! It is also a great time to be a sports fan in Philly: Flyers have at least one point in each game since and the Sixers have won each of their games - and are on-pace for a few wins over .500. That puts them in the playoffs. And the Phillies have made a splash at 1B and the bullpen, have a new manager (that many questioned - like Doug Peterson) & coaches, and - most important- finished the last 76 games at .500.

Story Lines in Spring

1. Maikel Franco needs to pull an Agholor and rebound
2. Prospects like Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn (injury history), and Eschelman have an outside shot at making the roster. Quinn is on the 40-man and Kingery & Eshelman are not. Factoring in injuries, a short bench, and delaying free agency, it's looking like these guys will be sent to AAA but it won't take long to see these guys in the bigs, especially if they make a good impression in Spring & in the first month at AAA.
3. Bench: Altherr and Williams will be OF #3 & 4. The second spot is back-up catcher and that's between Rupp's $2MM salary or Knapp's brilliant 2017 performance - or both. Fourth is the utility position and versatility is needed here: Florimon can play left side plus some OF; Quinn can play all three OF positions; Tommy Joseph could still end up here if he shows he can pinch hit under low playing time but not likely.
4. And not to be outdone, it'll be our first in-game impression of Gabe Kepler. Can he and his staff be the next Doug Pederson (Eagles were more than the sum of their parts) or at least meet my 90% rule? We'll see.
   
   Gabe said two things yesterday: I agree that this team can surprise if they make strides and that the goal has to be NL East. However, realistically, this team will end up at 78 through 84 wins and short of the postseason. It takes - historically - quite a bit more for a wild card and probably a lot more for the division. He can mention those from time to time especially in his Spring speeches, but ultimately his focus will have to shift to ensuring that individuals take those steps forward.

Season Story Lines

Most important:

1. Can the Phillies continue their success from July 12th on?
2. Can they create leads despite a young rotation, deficiencies in defense?
3. Can that rotation get through the first 21 batters relatively unscathed (4 R or less)? I'd like to see the depth evolve in Spring: Eschelman (AAA then MLB) vs. Pivetta (6 ERA last yr) is my biggest wonder. Lively had the best performance in 15 games last year but a low K-rate; Leiter (bullpen probably), Eflin (injuries), Thompson (BB-rate)... Velasquez gets one more shot & Eickhoff did well before battling injuries. Can they survive 162-games? Can the offense, too? It's a long season (sorry, cliche!)!
4. And can a revamped bullpen hold leads?

They have an easy schedule the first half, playing the Mets, Braves, Marlins & four against the Orioles (the latter two projecting as 100-loss teams). As I said in previous posts, game 54 is a good checkpoint: standings, AAA team, record and - for Kepler - record in 1-run games.

One more story line that would be cool is awards: Nola could get Cy Young. Crawford, Kingery, Alfaro and perhaps Lively, Eshelman, etc. could be RoY. And Nola, Williams, Herrera, Altherr, Hoskins, or Santana could be MVP. We have bounceback and bullpen award candidates too. Obviously, if the team doesn't contend, we will see no MVP and most awards will not go to Phillies. Nola's Cy Young is perhaps the most likely (especially if 18 wins for him or more!) followed by a RoY - at least seeing votes. If they do contend or put on a fight til the [near] end, Gabe K & Matt K could be manager/ executive of the year.

We shall see... go Phillies!

Maikel Franco, Geritt Cole

Franco was suspended by the Dominican team for one game for partying too long: he and three others stayed at a party into the morning hours on a game day. Despite this and even despite his recent $2MM payout form 2018, I'm sure this is the last year for him to show he deserves to stay as his numbers the last three years haven't lived up to the .280 avg in his short rookie year (80 games due to May call-up & HBP injury).

The Pirates traded Gerritt Cole to the World Champs Astros for four MLB- or AAA-level prospects, including the Astros' #5 & #13 prospects. The trade market is set. While the Phillies could have topped this trade, I agree with PhilliesNation.com that only two years of team control could have turned them off. Rays' Archer and others mentioned as trade candidates are controlled for 3 years or more, which is more ideal to the Phillies.

Honoring The Past, Possibly The Future

There are two ways the Phillies honor their players and coaches: Wall of Fame and retiring numbers. A player can be eligible on the WoF if they spent four years on the team (sometimes called the Thome rule). They can honor individuals or a group of players. As for retiring numbers, the Phillies adopt MLB guidance as policy: Hall of Famers only. Considering the team lost 10,160 games in its history along with that policy and it's no surprise they retired only 5 players (three wore numbers), remembering that 42 (Jackie Robinson) is retired by MLB & doesn't count toward the Phillies' five. So how should they honor the 2005-2012 teams that went 727-569 (.561) with five NL East titles, two pennants, and a World Championship?

I do have to start in the past: while these two did not contribute to the NL East dynasty, they deserve recognition through retirement. player, manager, coach and special assistant Larry Bowa (#10) and slugger Dick Allen (#15), the latter having at least a RoY, good numbers, and - new stat - an avg. HR distance in the top three. He'll probably get in but that won't be for another 2-4 years.

Before I go into the top honors, I do think the policy should change. This would put retirement as top honors with individual WoF being second and team WoF being third but still a great honor.

This year will be the tenth anniversary of the 2008 World Championship -OR- 2008-2009 Pennants While some players from that team are still playing, I think the team can find a good time for those players to return for the unveiling of a plaque for that team, especially if Cole Hamels is the only one playing. Eventually, those that were on at least two but more likely three of the teams responsible for the NL East era will be honored on a team plaque. That would have to wait until at least next year, possibly 2020. Thanks to Pat Burrell and Charlie Manuel's individual WoF inductions, I, at least, can wait. And what an honor it would be to appear on both plaques let alone just one.

And back to retirement, here are those definitely deserving:

• Manuel 41
• Rollins 11 - longest-tenured Philly and #1 hits
• Utley 26 - tenure and very high value (higher WAR than Howard or Rollins)
• Ruiz 51 - tenure and the ability to block balls, call a game and later on, hit; also 4 no-nos caught!
• Hamels 35 (obviously after he quits) - tenure, post-season MVP 2008, combined and CG no-nos

And here are those that won't be retired but will (or are) be on the WoF as individuals or part of the teams' honors:

• Thome, 25 - 100+ HRs with the team
• Halladay 34 - de facto retirement and individual WoF since he had the no-hitters & 2nd Cy Young w/ Phila. and he's probably going to the Hall next ballot. Rest in Peace and thank you!!!
• Rolen, 17 (uh oh - Hoskins!) - 7-yr tenure & RoY; good production overall
• Werth, 28 - left too early but he was integral in getting us those pennants
• Abreu, 53 - just like Rolen, led us to contention; like Allen, underrated (but Allen is more underrated); .921 OPS in NINE (9)! years with the Phillies.
• Howard 6 - I don't advocate for retirement but individual WoF is probably a must. His OPS+ after signing the extension was ~95 close to league avg. We'd have accomplished lots less w/o him.
• Lidge 54 - probably not but that 2008 season - wow!
• Madson, 46 - tenure & 2008
• Victorino 8 - tenure & 2008
• Meyers, 39 - 2008-9
• Blanton, 56 - probably not but that HR & win in Game 4 of the 2008 World Series!
• Moyer, 50 - hometown kid, 2008, broadcaster
• Stairs, 12 - 2008 NLCS HR, broadcaster, hitting coach
• Lee, 33 - had he not been traded he'd have probably been in the definites!
• Pat Burrell, 5 - #1 draft pick, 2008, etc.
• Lopes, 15 - baserunning success (a rarity that I will recommend a coach)
• Dubee, 30 - pitching coac

And those on the teams' WoF plaques not mentioned above: Madson, Oswalt, J.C. Romero, J Contreras,  Kendrick, P Feliz, P Polanco, W Valdez, J.A. Happ, C Durbin. Coaches: Thompson (H), Perlozzo (3B), Samuel (1B-3B), Dubee (P), Lopes (1B), Billmeyer (C, 'pen), and possibly Greg Gross (H). Obviously, Charlie Manuel will be at the top of both teams' WoF plaques.