The
Phillies have been eliminated from post-season contention. In my previous post,
I do blame Klentak and Kapler fairly equally but given their contract status,
it looks more likely that Klentak will be the one to stay. We shall see. Expect
at least some coaching change beyond getting a new hitting coach as Charlie
doesn’t want the job in 2020 – thank you for stepping in! Come Oct or Nov 2020,
Klentak or MacPhail may be gone. I am not going to grade the pitchers this year
given that no one really performed well (even Nola took a step back).
I
wish we could dump almost everyone but Nola but what depth do we have in AAA? Spencer
Howard (tremendous AA season), Adonis Medina & Ethan Lindow? I’d love to
see at least three more names. Shame. Klentak must spend on pitching this year
and Middleton must be open to going over the luxury tax threshold. Hamels (3.92
ERA this year, 3.95 in last 3 yr) still can help us (1-yr $20MM w/ $15MM option
or 2-yr $32.5MM?). Not sure if we should trade for someone but if a team wants
to take Herrera off our hands for pitching, Klentak should strongly consider
it.
Without
further ado, it is time to evaluate the team’s (79-78) offensive performance
from an individual standpoint. As usual I will go in defensive order (2 C, 3-6
IF, 7-9 OF & a few bench players) and use my usual system (F, D, C, C+, B-,
B, B+, A- & A).
Catching
JT
Realmuto was the team MVP. He stepped it up offensively during the last two
trimesters of the season, being the lone rep in the All-Star Game. With his
injury, workload (580 PAs, 5.5 gm/wk -too
much for a catcher), and the team’s status of mot contending, it looks like his
.275/.328/.493/.820 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) line with 25 HR, 83 RBI, and 9/10 in SB
will be final. Looking at the game logs, he’s only had maybe 3-4 bad
games and 2 of them came in the midst of 7-10-day-long slumps. Certainly worthy
of Silver Slugger consideration and a few top 5 MVP votes. Defensively, he’s
been consistent year-round. He cut down the most runners in all of MLB and is
one of the better game-callers & pitch framers in MLB. His defensive
prowess only adds to his case for MVP votes. I agree with Harper that if JT does
not get a Gold Glove, then the award truly is a joke. I also think JT deserves
the Platinum GG (given to the best defender in each league) and it should be
one of Klentak’s highest priorities to extend JT. It will be up to Kapler or
the next manager to give him a few more days off/ DH games in interleague play so
that he can last (and of course perform) thru the length of that contract.
Grade: A-/ A (94%); STAY!!!
Knapp
was seldom-used. His 140 PAs so far and my projection of 165 ( JT’s injury), is
very low for even a back-up catcher. More PAs would have helped him stay fresh
offensively but he is not, nor ever was, projected to be a starter, even on a
mediocre team. If Klentak can find a serviceable back-up to JT, great. It is
not a high priority. Grade: C (73%); go if possible
Infield
1B
Hoskins: Oh he has some work to do. Fell off a cliff with everyone else.
Eighty-plus (80) RBIs, >120 combined BB+HBP and 30 HRs is nothing to frown
at but the inconsistency needed work long before this year. His BABIP &
K-rate are consistent from last year. If he puts in the same work this winter
as Kingery did last winter, lord help any team facing Rhys in 2020. Grade:
C+/B- (79%)
2B
Hernandez: Oh, one of the biggest non-hustlers on the team but our top hitter
or on-base guy from year-to-year. I give him a C+ (76%). He’s now crossed into
under-performing his arbitration value territory. However, his skills are
necessary at the 6 or 7 spots in the line-up. It’s a dilemma but not too tough
a decision.
3B
Franco: Oh the demotion. Oh the inconsistency. Oh the lack of versatility. But
the defense! Once a touted prospect coming up, he has yet to hit .270 or better
in consecutive years. The demotion was a surprise but probably deserved. His
treatment by Kapler really wasn’t deserved. Demotion had no effect on his
performance. Grade: C (72%); Bye!
SS
Segura: Gosh darn-it you need to hustle! Ok, that’s out of the way. We got him
to not strike out so did he succeed: 12% of PAs, so he did! Nearly a career low
in Ks actually. I would’ve put him 6th in the line-up with his low-K
rate but he did the job and the K rate didn’t vary much with leverage (although
it climbed to 14% with runners on). Would’ve liked to see more BB & SB,
too. Grade: C+/ B- (78%). Stay for three months then reevaluate based on
hustle.
Bench:
Kingery (B+/ 87%) had a great bounce-back year, just a bit more consistency
needed. The rest of the bench was inconsistent.
Next
year: C: JT & (Knapp or other); 1B: Hoskins; 2B: Kingery; 3B: Galvis
(please bring him back), SS: Segura. IF bench needs improvement.
Outfield
The
only one to grade is Harper: not a bad first year but not amongst the best he
could have. Excellent in high leverage and clutch situations. Needed to help
carry the offense. Grade: B (84%). I’m looking for more hitting in lower
leverage situations.
I’m
very pumped for the OF depth in S.T. next year. McCutchen and Harper get two
spots w/ Kingery able to play here as well (I’m hoping 2B mostly) followed by Bruce,
Williams (can we get him some more PAs?), Quinn (good speed when healthy but I’ll
take it), Haseley, possibly Herrera plus I’m hoping we can re-sign Dickerson.
Overall Score
You
may have noticed that I was being lenient against how bad they performed
overall vs. expectations. You are correct. The avg is a B- (81.5%). The front
office and coaches get some blame and the pitching was terrible. Factor in the
blame I assigned in my last post, we get a 75% (C).
Back
to the offense: I did a projection based on the “stay category” plus minor improvements
for everyone, especially for those where injuries held them back. The result:
86% (maybe 87%). Applying half of that improvement to 157 games results in 82-83
wins with five to go, which would at least tie us with the Mets and Cubs. Add a
.500 record in the last 5 games and we’re at 84-87 wins.
And
that’s not considering the team was 33-22 after the first 55, which is a 94-win
pace in 157 games – 2-4 gms back of the Braves right now but we’ll lower it to
2 because I project a better head-to-head record (yes we already won the season
series). Factor in Alec Bohm, too. Now, all I ask is to salvage one win in this
current Nats series and to win this weekend’s series vs. Marlins for an 82-80
record.
Awards
Recognition
for their 2019 seasons should be high for JT as I mentioned but Haseley, Kingery,
Nola, Harper, Neris (80-85 SV%, 2.97 ERA) and Alvarez & Suarez (3-3.5 ERA
in ~50 IP each), and Dickerson (.300 AVG, .900 OPS w/ PIT & PHI) may get
some consideration for the lesser known awards. Many of our guys are up for at
least a resiliency award in 2020: Irvin, Nola, Arrieta, McCutchen, Herrera, and
Hoskins are just a few names plus our entire bullpen (injuries). Some, of
course, may not get the award as Phillies.
Enjoy
the winter. Should be a suspenseful off-season at first. That excites me.
Also of note, the defense improved this year and slightly more than expected. Still had a few rough games but excellent overall!
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