2019 and Beyond!

Ok, so I titled this after Buzz Lightyear. Appropriate, considering we decided to rebuild about 3 years ago and it's almost complete! Went by fast... not exactly 186,400 miles per second (speed of light) but it seems only yesterday the team made that decision.

The 2018 roster is looking good. You'll see some adjustments later - Kingery, Rupp, Florimon, and Eschelman most notably - but who's in on Opening Day & the depth are pretty clear. As we know, 2018 is all about seeing who stays for the next four years and who does not. This entry attempts to look at how the 2019 "40-Man" Roster will be composed - from the minors, majors or outside the organization - based on 2018 success and also roster status. Let's begin:

Rotation

Aaron Nola, though young, has shown remarkable consistency in the last few years. He is everything we expected when we drafted him. This year is the last steps of his development: stay healthy and get Cy Young votes. He'd have to win 20 on his own or the team would have to contend for the wild card, but he sure could with a good fastball, decent sinker, incredible curve, and a recently-added change-up. If he performs and makes 30+ starts, the team sure would at least knock out arbitration.

Jake Arrieta is also a sure bet. Over time, he'll decline as his velocity has decreased over time. Still, a veteran with recent success is enough evidence for me... and if he declines faster, there's an out after 2019.

Tom Eschelman, being the rookie looks like the only sure bet. Most players can be successfully evaluated at 2-3 years in and that's exactly what the Phillies have been doing for most guys. I am very eager to see how he does.

I can guarantee two guys will be successful: one of Pivetta, Velasquez, and Eickhoff and the other being from the whole depth chart minus Tom, Jake, and Aaron. Most of the guys will succeed in 1-2 turns through the line-up but not being able to go through the order one or two more time... those guys will - for 2019 at least - end up in the bullpen as long men.

Overall in the rotation, we will see movement during and after 2018. There will be room in performance and roster status (due to depth needed for injuries) for 1-2 free agents. I will make an exception to the no 2008 rule and accept Cole Hamels if he wants to return. He's still very good - in fact, he is in the top 15 with Arietta and Nola.

2019: A core of one free agent to supplement Nola & Arietta, an evaluation period for Eschelman, and lots of overlap with long men & spot starts.

Bullpen

I can guarantee T Hunter & P Neshek will be on the 2019 roster. L Garcia and especially A Morgan could drop as they're nearing arbitration. H Neris is probably staying on in 2019 by both performance and roster status. We'll have 3-4 long men (2-3 inning guys), as previously mentioned.

2019: good core of our two signings, lots of long men, Neris as closer.

Offense

The bench will be, after OF 4 & C 2 (discussed below), Florimon (utility) & Valentin (40-man roster)... OF Quinn could be on as well but his injury history will keep him in AAA to start.

1. Pitchers: Again, Nola & Arietta remain atop the rotation with the rest dependent on 2018 success and Eschelman getting the 5th starter role. Velasquez, Pivetta, Eickhoff, Lively, Eflin, Thompson, and Lieter Jr - called "The 7" - are needed for rotation depth but for opening week(s) 2019, only one of them will be part of the rotation. The rest will join the 'pen as long men/ spot starters with Hunter (if he's not traded), Neshek, Neris, possibly Garcia but absent Morgan. We're good in numbers for 2019 w/ one coming from outside the org but which of The 7 wins the opening week job is unknown.
   
2. Catchers: Alfaro begins his evaluation period and Knapp continues his. Alfaro has downside and upside while Knapp stole the job from Rupp and thus has slight upside. Both Alfaro and Knapp are going to be on in 2019 and we'll be great. Some downside factors in later.
3. Santana at 1B in 2019 is a guarantee just like Arietta. After his contract ends, Hoskins takes over in 2021 (for 2019, Hoskins remains in the OF and is discussed further under #6).
4. Cesar Hernandez and Scott Kingery performing well, due to the former's high arbitration, makes for an interesting battle in the 2nd half of 2018. The best bet, if Cesar does well, is to trade him but if not, he'll be a guarantee for 2019 and get most of the starts. Both might need to be utility players if there's no trade and both can be by past or present history.
5. This is becoming a bit monotonous but this is a make-or-break-year at 3B for Maikel Franco. If he holds his own around a .270-AVG, he could be on the roster in 2019 as back-up (can't happen for 2020 due to arb status). He could be the primary if he hits .275 or better. His bat recently exploded in ST but the opinions are stacked against him.
6. J.P. Crawford will begin a two-year evaluation period. He'll have help from the bench and from other starters. He is the better overall player than Galvis, who's defense will sorely be missed.
7. The defense will be down here but Rhys Hoskins won't be out there all the time and his offense (despite the poss. of the league adjusting to him) should be more than enough to overcome a low/ negative dWAR. He's guaranteed in 2019.
8. Herrera is a guarantee in 2019. No need to review the success he's known over years of hard work in the year before and the years after his Rule 5 selection. A rule 5 center fielder?! Reminds me how we built the 2005-2012 rosters!!! And if Herrera can learn OF defense, so can Rhys.
9. Two outfielders here: Williams & Altherr. The latter is guaranteed a positive WAR based on last year's performance, especially if he's healthy. The former is in his three-year evaluation period but so far so good. Gabe will be able to find playing time, especially with a four-man bench most of the year.

In terms of WAR, the offense here will be fine overall but most of the players will end up with peaks of 2-4 per year... excellent but not like Chase or Ryan or J-Roll. However, break-outs in 2018 could change that.  Plus, the coaching staff is an unknown, too. There's opportunity in 2019 for free agents in all areas... offensively, Machado is a probably yes, Harper is possible and Trout (after 2020) is definite. Anyway, 2019 looks good and 2020 looks good too as (1) some will complete their evaluation periods, (2) some becomes arb-eligible, we still (3) have Santana and possibly other future free agents, plus (4) a ton more players come up (Sixto Sanchez).

Great job on the rebuild, front office! Go Phillies!