Manny Machado will spend at least the first two years of his potential HoF career out of the postseason, but the now former Oriole is used to that and now makes just over $1.15MM per paycheck. Harper is still unsigned and the rumors continue to swirl - now it's the Dodgers getting [back?] in on the action. I think he gets to the Phillies for 33MM/ yr over probably ten years but lots of details still in the works. Last year at this time, Jake Arietta signed for what could be 3 yr/ $75MM instead of 7 yr/ $120MM+. Alex Rodriguez recently chimed in on the long free agency and Cardinals Pitcher Adam Wainwright fears a mid-season walk-out.
On negotiations with Harper
I'd go with $32.5MM AAV for nine years (age 26-34) with opt-out after five years. If he decides to stay, he gets $5MM, and then then the options: $25MM or $5MM buyout at 550 PAs last year (or 475 & 625 PAs last two years) or $20MM mutual option at lesser amt of PAs. Boras is trying to get a 3-yr opt out and that actually may work in the Phillies favor long term: age 29-31 seasons may be the only time we contend. If we get Trout (unlikely but not rare either), we could contend longer - great bargaining chip to use on Harper and we then have two star outfielders (both former first-round picks BTW) for 2022. Harper & Trout in their primes together for at least 2 years. If we don't get Trout, we could still renegotiate with Harper or let him walk (we must be developing - cannot have a repeat of 2012-2017). In the former case, I am reminded of A-Rod's 10-yr/ $275MM contract, but that time, we'll probably do another opt-out after 3 years. At least, that's what I'd offer. In all likelihood, I'll be fine with 10-11 guaranteed with a player opt-out and the 25/20/5 option for one (maybe 2) years after the end of deal. Mutual buyout after 6 years could also work. I think both sides will be happy money & options/ opt-outs wise.
On CBA, free agency and player payment
Let's ignore that these star players make too much already and talk about how much control teams have for most in their primes (6 years before free agency) and how arbitration undervalues many of these players. Too much control, too much undervalue (look at Nola's recent negotiations) when these players would make 2-3 times as much on the free agent market. In my humble opinion, I'd favor one less year of control and arbitration a year earlier (so an avg of 1.5-2 yr of ML minimum instead of 2.5-3 yr) in exchange for signing deadline: Teams must submit proposal (options, opt-outs, and base salary - obviously would be based on negotiations) to FAs & MLB office by 4:30 PM ET 2/10 and the players must pick (sign offer sheet) and notify team & MLB by 1:30 PM ET 2/14. They could sign sooner, but once they do, a physical must be performed by 2:30 PM ET (submit results or certificate of completion to MLB by 4:30 PM that day) the 3rd day (e.g. sign 2/14, physical due 2/17; sign 2/11, physical due 2/14). Quite frankly, I'm getting tired of all the back and forth from teams on Harper.
On the possible lockout?
I do not think the players will walk out this year but sometime next year if more star FAs are unsigned in February, expect a strike that year.
If any news comes of Harper or any renegotiations of CBA, I'll provide an opinion. Enjoy the games!
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Right before Spring Training
With the latest news of the trade for Realmuto & signing Nola to an extension and workouts beginning soon, the Phillies' offseason has officially ended - wait... What about Harper or Machado or others discussed in the media? They are now going to be like Arrieta last year - Spring signees.
Moves:
Phillies got OF McCutchen, C Realmuto, SS Segura and agreed to arbitration with - I think it was - 10+ players (including the deal with Nola - effectively $6MM this year with base + bonus and $8MM in second year makes this team friendly) and they did submit offers to the top free agents (reports are that the offers from all teams were much lower than expected but no specifics given) - we just have to wait. No left-handed starter nor additional bullpen help. However, they could still sign some folks in the early part of S.T., and they still have Hunter & Nicaso in the 2nd year of deals. They sent a few guys over in those trades - most notably Santana for Segura, allowing a better defense with Hoskins at 1B. Good depth in outfield and some depth at infield (either one could drastically improve/ trade of some of the arb players may be required if they sign Harper or Machado). Lots of names in the pitching category - quantity > quality this year. Not much depth at catcher with Alfaro gone but Knapp here.
Summary: Machado's comments haven't been well-received in Philly but at least we know going in... I'd welcome either of the two. Realmuto, Segura and even McCutchen give us hitters... walking is nice but hits are what drive in those runners. We didn't get a lefty starter or more outside bullpen help but the latter may still occur. This was a good off-season. Grade: B-. If we sign more, I'll revise the grade in another post.
Prospects:
They had to send over P prospect Sixto Sanchez for Realmuto so we'll see how that plays out in coming years. The Phillies publicly put the 20-year-old's work routine down, so if you're not going to be a bit more classy, then send him off - best of luck, Sixto! While we drafted well and Lehigh Valley ended last year with a .600 winning percentage, I don't see many call-ups that can help. Non-roster invitees and those on the 40-man are it for our internal depth - only Kimbrel, Moustakas, Harper and Machado can change the look.
Predicting the record:
This is a tough one without Harper or Machado. Let's try it:
Moves:
Phillies got OF McCutchen, C Realmuto, SS Segura and agreed to arbitration with - I think it was - 10+ players (including the deal with Nola - effectively $6MM this year with base + bonus and $8MM in second year makes this team friendly) and they did submit offers to the top free agents (reports are that the offers from all teams were much lower than expected but no specifics given) - we just have to wait. No left-handed starter nor additional bullpen help. However, they could still sign some folks in the early part of S.T., and they still have Hunter & Nicaso in the 2nd year of deals. They sent a few guys over in those trades - most notably Santana for Segura, allowing a better defense with Hoskins at 1B. Good depth in outfield and some depth at infield (either one could drastically improve/ trade of some of the arb players may be required if they sign Harper or Machado). Lots of names in the pitching category - quantity > quality this year. Not much depth at catcher with Alfaro gone but Knapp here.
Summary: Machado's comments haven't been well-received in Philly but at least we know going in... I'd welcome either of the two. Realmuto, Segura and even McCutchen give us hitters... walking is nice but hits are what drive in those runners. We didn't get a lefty starter or more outside bullpen help but the latter may still occur. This was a good off-season. Grade: B-. If we sign more, I'll revise the grade in another post.
Prospects:
They had to send over P prospect Sixto Sanchez for Realmuto so we'll see how that plays out in coming years. The Phillies publicly put the 20-year-old's work routine down, so if you're not going to be a bit more classy, then send him off - best of luck, Sixto! While we drafted well and Lehigh Valley ended last year with a .600 winning percentage, I don't see many call-ups that can help. Non-roster invitees and those on the 40-man are it for our internal depth - only Kimbrel, Moustakas, Harper and Machado can change the look.
Predicting the record:
This is a tough one without Harper or Machado. Let's try it:
- Rough end to last year -> not the lessons to learn but it was never about getting to the playoffs last year. They should avoid a long stretch of constant loosing. No effect.
- Schedule -> bit tougher this year but they did win in the third month last year, which was a great test against the NL Central. Little to no effect expected.
- Defense -> it was ugly last year and much improved this year but performance-wise despite Arietta & "shift-gate" but not much effect this year (half a game improvement)
So far, we've added maybe a win.
- Rotation -> We don't have the depth to last the year if we have a lot of injuries. Assuming Nola & Arrieta (knee issue) perform on par with or better than last year and two of the next three spots get us through the 6th inning, we'll be ok. Let's subtract a half-win to account for low depth.
- Bullpen -> Add a win to account for decent depth. Pitching overall is +0.5 wins but could be +2 wins if the rotation performs like much of last year in terms of low injury count and high reliability from the younger starters.
- Offense -> we have a more balanced approach with Segura, McCutchen, Realmuto and Hoskins able to hit and improved play from Kingery vs Franco and OBP guys Hernandez (broken ankle most of last year) and Herrera. Depth here could change but right now, add four wins (Moustakas adds one (1) win and if we add Harper or Machado, add 2.5 to 3.5 wins).
So far +5.5 wins (84-86 wins and 76-78 losses) - Kapler -> if he didn't do the micromanaging moves last year, we'd be mathematically viable til game ~160 last year. Some moves were justified but most were not and if that's the case this year, we're in for a rough ride. This will be the secondary deciding factor.
Thursday, July 5, 2018
Pre-All-Star-Break Check-In: trade rumors, potential representatives, Kapler, contention
The Phillies are ten games over .500 (1.5 GM back of the Braves & 2nd WC leaders) and I project them to enter the All-Star break with a 54-41 record despite a double header and all road games. They also have an 18-7 record in 1-R games, but mostly it's the players doing well. The rest of July except the last two days (Red Sox) is fairly easy with 3 vs the Padres (37-51), 3 vs the Dodgers (47-39), 4 @ Reds (38-49). This will allow them to buy at the deadline.
Who's going to the All-Star game in DC? Aaron Nola is a sure lock after winning his 11th game (T1 NL, T3 MLB) and if he continues to pitch well (top ten in most pitching categories), he'll likely be in the top 5 in the NL Cy Young vote! Herrera won't start in the game, but he, Dominguez, Hernandez, and Eflin have the strongest cases with Hoskins an outside shot. However, considering this is the first-year they're contending, two will be justified and also great (1st time since Lee & Brown went in 2013). Some players are having woes and inconsistencies but they're winning despite Kapler: yes, less questionable moves but they still happen. They are greater than the sum of their parts - not to the same degree as the Eagles, but close.
Congrats to those who are ultimately selected and good luck. As for the trade deadline, the Phils will buy and while Klentak's phone bill will likely be the most expensive out of all the GMs this month, he will only buy at the right price. With the Orioles requiring at least one of the team's big prospects for Machado, it would be best/ more likely to get him in FA and go after Beltre or Moustakas. Former Phillies Hamels and Happ are the lefty starters they could acquire but the rotation is doing well enough that acquiring a lefty reliever would be a better move.
An exciting month of baseball so far and it just got started - Go Phillies!
Who's going to the All-Star game in DC? Aaron Nola is a sure lock after winning his 11th game (T1 NL, T3 MLB) and if he continues to pitch well (top ten in most pitching categories), he'll likely be in the top 5 in the NL Cy Young vote! Herrera won't start in the game, but he, Dominguez, Hernandez, and Eflin have the strongest cases with Hoskins an outside shot. However, considering this is the first-year they're contending, two will be justified and also great (1st time since Lee & Brown went in 2013). Some players are having woes and inconsistencies but they're winning despite Kapler: yes, less questionable moves but they still happen. They are greater than the sum of their parts - not to the same degree as the Eagles, but close.
Congrats to those who are ultimately selected and good luck. As for the trade deadline, the Phils will buy and while Klentak's phone bill will likely be the most expensive out of all the GMs this month, he will only buy at the right price. With the Orioles requiring at least one of the team's big prospects for Machado, it would be best/ more likely to get him in FA and go after Beltre or Moustakas. Former Phillies Hamels and Happ are the lefty starters they could acquire but the rotation is doing well enough that acquiring a lefty reliever would be a better move.
An exciting month of baseball so far and it just got started - Go Phillies!
Tuesday, April 10, 2018
Phillies Pitching: Making the Right Call
Before I discuss the pitchers and their roles, a quick check-in about a week of games played: 4-5 record but 3-1 in 1-R/ extra-inning games. I'm not entirely sure that Kapler is doing a good job based on those numbers but it is a small sample. I think the 4-5 record is a better W-L record to use. The deep line-up is mostly responsible for the 3-1 record.
So, who is on the short leash in the rotation?
Nola is stretched out, and pulling him early is clearly the only sure-bet-bad-decision. Arrieta's debut was rough so he'll need his next start or two to be stretched. Both are allotted 7 innings, which is 2.5 turns through the line-up, at minimum, but more likely 3 turns through. Ben Lively and Vince Velasquez are looking terrible but worthy of a 'pen spot if they do not improve. They each can manage nearly one turn through the line-up, which is all you need of a long man. I'll give Vince two more starts. Ben gets a bit longer. And both get to face the line-up twice at most. Eickhoff gets at least a month upon his return and could also get the short leash. Eflin gets about a month but he, Leiter, Jr, and Thompson should, upon return, be in the bullpen due to performance history, depth, and/ or injury history. They get one turn through as long men (maybe 10-11 batters faced if crusing) and slightly longer (10-15 batters faced) if starting. And Nick Pivetta had a stellar performance the other night with Franco's 4 RBIs. Keep it up and he's on the longer leash. Otherwise, short leash and/ or AAA, then bullpen if he can't make it in the majors. And when Eschelman debuts, long leash!
And in the bullpen, who - besides the injured Hunter & Neshek - are your long men?
Garcia might. Morgan could. I'd say Neris is your traditional closer but could occasionally be used in non-save/ longer-save/ late-middle relief. Everyone else is a 2-to-4-out guy. Most of your long men are also former/ spot starters, as mentioned above. We need Hunter and Neshek back. So far, the bullpen is improving each series. Good to see. Let's hope they can produce outs efficiently.
Overall?
Overall, if guys are cruising, let them continue to face batters. The aforementioned numbers are merely guidance. If they don't cruise, then we have a problem, obviously, and the coaches will have to intervene. If no improvement, then it's to the 'pen for most and to AAA for some.
Good luck!
So, who is on the short leash in the rotation?
Nola is stretched out, and pulling him early is clearly the only sure-bet-bad-decision. Arrieta's debut was rough so he'll need his next start or two to be stretched. Both are allotted 7 innings, which is 2.5 turns through the line-up, at minimum, but more likely 3 turns through. Ben Lively and Vince Velasquez are looking terrible but worthy of a 'pen spot if they do not improve. They each can manage nearly one turn through the line-up, which is all you need of a long man. I'll give Vince two more starts. Ben gets a bit longer. And both get to face the line-up twice at most. Eickhoff gets at least a month upon his return and could also get the short leash. Eflin gets about a month but he, Leiter, Jr, and Thompson should, upon return, be in the bullpen due to performance history, depth, and/ or injury history. They get one turn through as long men (maybe 10-11 batters faced if crusing) and slightly longer (10-15 batters faced) if starting. And Nick Pivetta had a stellar performance the other night with Franco's 4 RBIs. Keep it up and he's on the longer leash. Otherwise, short leash and/ or AAA, then bullpen if he can't make it in the majors. And when Eschelman debuts, long leash!
And in the bullpen, who - besides the injured Hunter & Neshek - are your long men?
Garcia might. Morgan could. I'd say Neris is your traditional closer but could occasionally be used in non-save/ longer-save/ late-middle relief. Everyone else is a 2-to-4-out guy. Most of your long men are also former/ spot starters, as mentioned above. We need Hunter and Neshek back. So far, the bullpen is improving each series. Good to see. Let's hope they can produce outs efficiently.
Overall?
Overall, if guys are cruising, let them continue to face batters. The aforementioned numbers are merely guidance. If they don't cruise, then we have a problem, obviously, and the coaches will have to intervene. If no improvement, then it's to the 'pen for most and to AAA for some.
Good luck!
Friday, April 6, 2018
Phils Offense: Balancing Playing Time
Addendum 2 to my opinion & Phils on a roll - W 4/18 @ 9:45 AM EDT:
The Phillies are on the road playing the Braves and won in the 10th inning, continuing a good record in close &extra-inning games. Everyone is executing just enough to win - some struggles. The pitching is coming around and that made for some easy (read: "traditional") decisions. The offense has sputtered as of late but I'm not worried. I am concerned about J.P. Crawford's struggles against lefties... 2/27 against them. Small sample, short career and slow starts the last few promotions for him are mitigating factors, so I'll give him more time but Kapler will have to start thinking about resting him vs a lefty. And summarizing this article: We have 8 line-up spots and 12 players (7 and 10 not counting the catcher) - good depth! Florimon & Altherr are probably getting the least playing time - but expect them to get at least 2-4 GM per week.
Addendum to my opinion - Tu 4/10 @ 12:30 PM EDT:
Maikel Franco, by virtue of the last three years, does not deserve as many starts but his bat is hot and thus, needs to continue to see increased playing time. Williams' go-ahead, eventual-game-winning, PH HR shows he deserves more playing time despite a history of increased Ks & high BABIP. Right now, it appears that the odd men out are J.P. Crawford (extremely low AVG) and Aaron Altherr (age, experience, injury history, versatility) followed by Kingery (age, versatility), Santana (age/ experience, lower offensive ceiling than Hoskins) and Franco (history). The point still remains: deep line-up is making for tough decisions overall but I do see opportunity for more regular playing time for everyone.
------
I see that Herrera only started four games out of the first six, Franco drove in 4 R yesterday, Hoskins is hot, Crawford is not, and Williams is now curious as to what's driving [down] his [lack of] playing time. This needs to change but there's a balance. So, I'm taking a look at the offense to see who should get most of the starts:
Kapler, find the balance between analytics and traditions like the eye test. Good luck!
The Phillies are on the road playing the Braves and won in the 10th inning, continuing a good record in close &extra-inning games. Everyone is executing just enough to win - some struggles. The pitching is coming around and that made for some easy (read: "traditional") decisions. The offense has sputtered as of late but I'm not worried. I am concerned about J.P. Crawford's struggles against lefties... 2/27 against them. Small sample, short career and slow starts the last few promotions for him are mitigating factors, so I'll give him more time but Kapler will have to start thinking about resting him vs a lefty. And summarizing this article: We have 8 line-up spots and 12 players (7 and 10 not counting the catcher) - good depth! Florimon & Altherr are probably getting the least playing time - but expect them to get at least 2-4 GM per week.
Addendum to my opinion - Tu 4/10 @ 12:30 PM EDT:
Maikel Franco, by virtue of the last three years, does not deserve as many starts but his bat is hot and thus, needs to continue to see increased playing time. Williams' go-ahead, eventual-game-winning, PH HR shows he deserves more playing time despite a history of increased Ks & high BABIP. Right now, it appears that the odd men out are J.P. Crawford (extremely low AVG) and Aaron Altherr (age, experience, injury history, versatility) followed by Kingery (age, versatility), Santana (age/ experience, lower offensive ceiling than Hoskins) and Franco (history). The point still remains: deep line-up is making for tough decisions overall but I do see opportunity for more regular playing time for everyone.
------
I see that Herrera only started four games out of the first six, Franco drove in 4 R yesterday, Hoskins is hot, Crawford is not, and Williams is now curious as to what's driving [down] his [lack of] playing time. This needs to change but there's a balance. So, I'm taking a look at the offense to see who should get most of the starts:
- Pitchers will be the next entry - I answer "Who's on the short leash in the rotation?" and "Who besides Neshek & Hunter can go 2-3 innings?" although the former question is more important.
- This is easy: both Knapp & Alfaro should play equally as both deserve it - promising first impressions last year & the last two Septembers respectively and both had good Springs and can call a game - at least better than Rupp. How will Kapler find playing time here? It's primarily the schedule (the day game after a night game or limiting consecutive starts) but offensive production, pitcher requests (a la Halladay & Chooch 2010), match-ups, or health could play into the equation, especially late in games.
- Santana is your primary first baseman but as a veteran in his 30s, he needs and could handle two off days per week. This will help the OF defense a bit as Hoskins is only just starting to learn LF.
- Hernandez should get most of the starts here as he is certainly become productive over the last few years, it's his natural position and he could be traded. This is also Kingery's natural position so he needs to see some time here, too.
- Franco is the guy that - per the last few years - doesn't deserve to start more than four games per week except when his bat is hot plus the Phils are looking to trade him. He'll have to platoon with Kingery and possibly Crawford.
- Crawford needs to see his coaches right now because he's not hitting - all of the players, including JP, are working counts well though. Putting Kingery in here 1-2 times a week for now is the right move.
- Review of earlier post: Hoskins is a hot bat but his .471 avg will come down closer to .300 (probably ~.315). Defense needs usually require him to start at 1B once per week and be moved there for extra innings. Altherr is probably the best bet as back-up.
- Herrera should have started O.D. and should play nearly everyday with Altherr also backing him up. Perhaps Hernandez, who has played CF professionally, can start here once a week, too, but Herrera should be the first off the bench.
- Williams and Altherr will platoon and Kingery can play once a week here. I'd say Williams should play here most as Altherr will still get plenty of PAs despite both being young - Altherr has more experience.
Kapler, find the balance between analytics and traditions like the eye test. Good luck!
Tuesday, April 3, 2018
Dear Mr. Kapler
Dear Mr. Kapler,
I appreciate that you are going to listen to the fans and that there is a plan. Those will go a long way in gaining (regaining?) respect in Philadelphia. I'm no expert but it doesn't take a baseball wizard to see that there are risks to this plan and there are some experts who prefer Klentak's plan. Please implement that. Reviewing...
Do not pull Nola or Arrietta early. This will save innings later in the year. Each get 90 in their next start. Pivetta, Lively and when he comes up, Eshelman are good to stay in given their low experience. Two to three turns through the line-up for them. Velasquez needs to be given a four-start notice if he falters again or it's to the bullpen. He gave up a run on four outs and three runs on eight outs before he allowed lots of consecutive base-runners - what he did before that is a good starting point for a bullpen spot. That was not your fault nor is the absence of Hunter & Neshek and most of your long men. When they return, things will be better if you use these guys effectively. Most of the long men are going to be starters this year (typical injury & ineffectiveness-of-others depth). Those players in that category, when starting, will usually get two turns through the line-up but might be pulled early, then another long-man steps in. That's Klentak's plan. Oh, by the way, why did you not stretch these guys late in Spring Training?
I like the "eight-of-ten approach" to your line-ups but you might want to maximize run production early like Franco needed to start against Harvey tonight (Maik is 3-for-8 against him) yet I understand the need to give opportunities to Kingery and Franco is the perfect (probably only) candidate from which to take ABs - Crawford might also be a candidate depending on how things go. And for late games, I'm ok with the need for best defense but Hoskins' bat is too important to take out late. Move him to 1B instead - Santana is similar offensively to Rhys but Rhys is more likely to out-OPS Carlos than vice versa plus Santana's defense at 1B is rumored to be similar to Howard. All this - and the Utility and RF platoons - will become clearer late. Equal opportunities dependent on age & experience!
I wish you luck. I really do. This year is a turning point in the rebuild. The guys played .500 ball from the All-Star Break on. We need to maintain that to attract free agents. Also, what will deter them is them being on a short leash, regardless of team success and financial benefit. We maintain that, get a few break-outs and supplement that in July and the coming winter, we have the postseason made in 2019. Heck, what we have now could get us the Wild Card (and yes, you do have to push for the division!), but only if we take advantage of an easy schedule at first. Each month gets progressively harder for two reasons: more series vs. last year's playoff teams plus the grind of a 162-game season. Keep that perspective! I love the boldness. I love the messages. I definitely think some change is needed and some unconventional things need to be done but temper it. Not everyone is into it - fans, players or even executives. Know when. And my view of leadership is knowing what to say AND - more importantly - whether to say. it.
Humbly
Jaron
I appreciate that you are going to listen to the fans and that there is a plan. Those will go a long way in gaining (regaining?) respect in Philadelphia. I'm no expert but it doesn't take a baseball wizard to see that there are risks to this plan and there are some experts who prefer Klentak's plan. Please implement that. Reviewing...
Do not pull Nola or Arrietta early. This will save innings later in the year. Each get 90 in their next start. Pivetta, Lively and when he comes up, Eshelman are good to stay in given their low experience. Two to three turns through the line-up for them. Velasquez needs to be given a four-start notice if he falters again or it's to the bullpen. He gave up a run on four outs and three runs on eight outs before he allowed lots of consecutive base-runners - what he did before that is a good starting point for a bullpen spot. That was not your fault nor is the absence of Hunter & Neshek and most of your long men. When they return, things will be better if you use these guys effectively. Most of the long men are going to be starters this year (typical injury & ineffectiveness-of-others depth). Those players in that category, when starting, will usually get two turns through the line-up but might be pulled early, then another long-man steps in. That's Klentak's plan. Oh, by the way, why did you not stretch these guys late in Spring Training?
I like the "eight-of-ten approach" to your line-ups but you might want to maximize run production early like Franco needed to start against Harvey tonight (Maik is 3-for-8 against him) yet I understand the need to give opportunities to Kingery and Franco is the perfect (probably only) candidate from which to take ABs - Crawford might also be a candidate depending on how things go. And for late games, I'm ok with the need for best defense but Hoskins' bat is too important to take out late. Move him to 1B instead - Santana is similar offensively to Rhys but Rhys is more likely to out-OPS Carlos than vice versa plus Santana's defense at 1B is rumored to be similar to Howard. All this - and the Utility and RF platoons - will become clearer late. Equal opportunities dependent on age & experience!
I wish you luck. I really do. This year is a turning point in the rebuild. The guys played .500 ball from the All-Star Break on. We need to maintain that to attract free agents. Also, what will deter them is them being on a short leash, regardless of team success and financial benefit. We maintain that, get a few break-outs and supplement that in July and the coming winter, we have the postseason made in 2019. Heck, what we have now could get us the Wild Card (and yes, you do have to push for the division!), but only if we take advantage of an easy schedule at first. Each month gets progressively harder for two reasons: more series vs. last year's playoff teams plus the grind of a 162-game season. Keep that perspective! I love the boldness. I love the messages. I definitely think some change is needed and some unconventional things need to be done but temper it. Not everyone is into it - fans, players or even executives. Know when. And my view of leadership is knowing what to say AND - more importantly - whether to say. it.
Humbly
Jaron
Saturday, March 24, 2018
2019 and Beyond!
Ok, so I titled this after Buzz Lightyear. Appropriate, considering we decided to rebuild about 3 years ago and it's almost complete! Went by fast... not exactly 186,400 miles per second (speed of light) but it seems only yesterday the team made that decision.
The 2018 roster is looking good. You'll see some adjustments later - Kingery, Rupp, Florimon, and Eschelman most notably - but who's in on Opening Day & the depth are pretty clear. As we know, 2018 is all about seeing who stays for the next four years and who does not. This entry attempts to look at how the 2019 "40-Man" Roster will be composed - from the minors, majors or outside the organization - based on 2018 success and also roster status. Let's begin:
Rotation
Aaron Nola, though young, has shown remarkable consistency in the last few years. He is everything we expected when we drafted him. This year is the last steps of his development: stay healthy and get Cy Young votes. He'd have to win 20 on his own or the team would have to contend for the wild card, but he sure could with a good fastball, decent sinker, incredible curve, and a recently-added change-up. If he performs and makes 30+ starts, the team sure would at least knock out arbitration.
Jake Arrieta is also a sure bet. Over time, he'll decline as his velocity has decreased over time. Still, a veteran with recent success is enough evidence for me... and if he declines faster, there's an out after 2019.
Tom Eschelman, being the rookie looks like the only sure bet. Most players can be successfully evaluated at 2-3 years in and that's exactly what the Phillies have been doing for most guys. I am very eager to see how he does.
I can guarantee two guys will be successful: one of Pivetta, Velasquez, and Eickhoff and the other being from the whole depth chart minus Tom, Jake, and Aaron. Most of the guys will succeed in 1-2 turns through the line-up but not being able to go through the order one or two more time... those guys will - for 2019 at least - end up in the bullpen as long men.
Overall in the rotation, we will see movement during and after 2018. There will be room in performance and roster status (due to depth needed for injuries) for 1-2 free agents. I will make an exception to the no 2008 rule and accept Cole Hamels if he wants to return. He's still very good - in fact, he is in the top 15 with Arietta and Nola.
2019: A core of one free agent to supplement Nola & Arietta, an evaluation period for Eschelman, and lots of overlap with long men & spot starts.
Bullpen
I can guarantee T Hunter & P Neshek will be on the 2019 roster. L Garcia and especially A Morgan could drop as they're nearing arbitration. H Neris is probably staying on in 2019 by both performance and roster status. We'll have 3-4 long men (2-3 inning guys), as previously mentioned.
2019: good core of our two signings, lots of long men, Neris as closer.
Offense
The bench will be, after OF 4 & C 2 (discussed below), Florimon (utility) & Valentin (40-man roster)... OF Quinn could be on as well but his injury history will keep him in AAA to start.
Great job on the rebuild, front office! Go Phillies!
The 2018 roster is looking good. You'll see some adjustments later - Kingery, Rupp, Florimon, and Eschelman most notably - but who's in on Opening Day & the depth are pretty clear. As we know, 2018 is all about seeing who stays for the next four years and who does not. This entry attempts to look at how the 2019 "40-Man" Roster will be composed - from the minors, majors or outside the organization - based on 2018 success and also roster status. Let's begin:
Rotation
Aaron Nola, though young, has shown remarkable consistency in the last few years. He is everything we expected when we drafted him. This year is the last steps of his development: stay healthy and get Cy Young votes. He'd have to win 20 on his own or the team would have to contend for the wild card, but he sure could with a good fastball, decent sinker, incredible curve, and a recently-added change-up. If he performs and makes 30+ starts, the team sure would at least knock out arbitration.
Jake Arrieta is also a sure bet. Over time, he'll decline as his velocity has decreased over time. Still, a veteran with recent success is enough evidence for me... and if he declines faster, there's an out after 2019.
Tom Eschelman, being the rookie looks like the only sure bet. Most players can be successfully evaluated at 2-3 years in and that's exactly what the Phillies have been doing for most guys. I am very eager to see how he does.
I can guarantee two guys will be successful: one of Pivetta, Velasquez, and Eickhoff and the other being from the whole depth chart minus Tom, Jake, and Aaron. Most of the guys will succeed in 1-2 turns through the line-up but not being able to go through the order one or two more time... those guys will - for 2019 at least - end up in the bullpen as long men.
Overall in the rotation, we will see movement during and after 2018. There will be room in performance and roster status (due to depth needed for injuries) for 1-2 free agents. I will make an exception to the no 2008 rule and accept Cole Hamels if he wants to return. He's still very good - in fact, he is in the top 15 with Arietta and Nola.
2019: A core of one free agent to supplement Nola & Arietta, an evaluation period for Eschelman, and lots of overlap with long men & spot starts.
Bullpen
I can guarantee T Hunter & P Neshek will be on the 2019 roster. L Garcia and especially A Morgan could drop as they're nearing arbitration. H Neris is probably staying on in 2019 by both performance and roster status. We'll have 3-4 long men (2-3 inning guys), as previously mentioned.
2019: good core of our two signings, lots of long men, Neris as closer.
Offense
The bench will be, after OF 4 & C 2 (discussed below), Florimon (utility) & Valentin (40-man roster)... OF Quinn could be on as well but his injury history will keep him in AAA to start.
- Pitchers: Again, Nola & Arietta remain atop the rotation with the rest dependent on 2018 success and Eschelman getting the 5th starter role. Velasquez, Pivetta, Eickhoff, Lively, Eflin, Thompson, and Lieter Jr - called "The 7" - are needed for rotation depth but for opening week(s) 2019, only one of them will be part of the rotation. The rest will join the 'pen as long men/ spot starters with Hunter (if he's not traded), Neshek, Neris, possibly Garcia but absent Morgan. We're good in numbers for 2019 w/ one coming from outside the org but which of The 7 wins the opening week job is unknown.
- Catchers: Alfaro begins his evaluation period and Knapp continues his. Alfaro has downside and upside while Knapp stole the job from Rupp and thus has slight upside. Both Alfaro and Knapp are going to be on in 2019 and we'll be great. Some downside factors in later.
- Santana at 1B in 2019 is a guarantee just like Arietta. After his contract ends, Hoskins takes over in 2021 (for 2019, Hoskins remains in the OF and is discussed further under #6).
- Cesar Hernandez and Scott Kingery performing well, due to the former's high arbitration, makes for an interesting battle in the 2nd half of 2018. The best bet, if Cesar does well, is to trade him but if not, he'll be a guarantee for 2019 and get most of the starts. Both might need to be utility players if there's no trade and both can be by past or present history.
- This is becoming a bit monotonous but this is a make-or-break-year at 3B for Maikel Franco. If he holds his own around a .270-AVG, he could be on the roster in 2019 as back-up (can't happen for 2020 due to arb status). He could be the primary if he hits .275 or better. His bat recently exploded in ST but the opinions are stacked against him.
- J.P. Crawford will begin a two-year evaluation period. He'll have help from the bench and from other starters. He is the better overall player than Galvis, who's defense will sorely be missed.
- The defense will be down here but Rhys Hoskins won't be out there all the time and his offense (despite the poss. of the league adjusting to him) should be more than enough to overcome a low/ negative dWAR. He's guaranteed in 2019.
- Herrera is a guarantee in 2019. No need to review the success he's known over years of hard work in the year before and the years after his Rule 5 selection. A rule 5 center fielder?! Reminds me how we built the 2005-2012 rosters!!! And if Herrera can learn OF defense, so can Rhys.
- Two outfielders here: Williams & Altherr. The latter is guaranteed a positive WAR based on last year's performance, especially if he's healthy. The former is in his three-year evaluation period but so far so good. Gabe will be able to find playing time, especially with a four-man bench most of the year.
Great job on the rebuild, front office! Go Phillies!
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