Aplogies, Roster, Concerns

Apologies for not posting here recently. Spring Training is going very well for the Phillies. Less than two weeks to go and a concern is that stats are down a bit but that is normal. I have faith in the players we've got to win 75-80+ games. What's your prediction? 71 like last year? 78, which is my goal for this team? Or even 83 and makes things interesting in Sept.? Helping the stat problem is that it's affecting primarily the pitchers. Hitters are doing well and we're seeing some break-out performances from many. Yes, that is also normal for the Spring. The best news: NO BIG INJURIES!!! I have an idea to share but first, let's predict the O.D. Roster - it's easy though - just four spots to predict really:

Pitchers (13)

Rotation:

1. Hellickson
2. Eickhoff
3. Buchholz
4. Velasquez
5. Nola
6. Adam Morgan (long-man)

Barring injuries, this will be your rotation. The first week will require only a 4-man, 5-day rotation with the off days. So, Nola (injured last year) is eased back in (three or four starts in April) - thanks, PhilliesNation.com! - and all these guys are capable of sub-4 ERAs w/ 6+ IP/start. Velasquez didn't do that last year on avg. but his new pitch - a curve Hellickson helped him with!!! - should help him achieve better efficiency. Later on in the year, we have we have 5-6 guys at AAA that can come up and our young depth gets better after the trade deadline.

Bullpen:

1. Adam Morgan (L), long-man/ specialist
2. Jeanmar Gomez (R), closer
3. Hector Neris (R), set-up man
4. Joaquin Benoit (R), late-relief
5. Pat Neshek (R), mid-late relief
6. Edubray Ramos (R), mid-late relief
7. Joely Rodriguez (L), specialist/ mid-late relief
8. Dalier Hinojosa (R), mid-relief or Pat Venditte (S), primarily a lefty-on-lefty specialist

Gomez, Neris, Benoit, and Neshek are locks. Morgan is not a lock but is close enough given his experience, age & spot on the 40-man. Rodriguez, obtained in a trade with the Pirates a few years ago, made a few appearances for us last year; being a lefty gives him an advantage. Hinojosa & Ramos, part of last year's somewhat-successful 'pen, are probably the last two in. Venditte - a switch pitcher! - is on the bubble.

Hitters (12)

Catcher:

1. Rupp
2. Knapp

We don't have the veteran presence from the Chooch years but Rupp has been on the 25-man for the last few years. He hits with a tremendous off-the-bat speed and throws runners out, but has not called most games well, which needs to be corrected this year. Knapp is pretty much on the fast track primarily because of his age, roster status and capabilities as a catcher. I have every confidence in Matt Stairs' ability to help him (and others) with hitting. As long as he holds his own offensively, is eager to listen to coaching staff and excels behind the dish... we'll be good for next year.

O.D. Line-up (defensively 3-9):

1. Pitcher
2. Catcher (R)
3. 1B Tommy Joseph (R)
4. 2B Cesar Hernandez (S) - utility capable
5. 3B Maikel Franco (R)
6. SS Freddy Galvis (S) - utility capable
7. LF Howie Kendrick (R) - can play 2B, RF and possibly all-around utility
8. CF Odubel Herrera (L) - can play 2B and some corner OF
9. RF Michael Saunders (L)

Bench:

• OF Aaron Altherr (R)
• 1B, OF Brock Stassi (L)
• 2B-3B Andres Blanco ()

Pretty balanced if you ask me: righties, lefties, switch-hitters, veterans, and young guys. We need to see half the Phillies' 2017 wins on the backs of Franco and Herrera with strong contributions from Hernandez and I hope (but not critical) Joseph. I have faith in Galvis' ability to hit decently and play solid defense everywhere.

Prediction

This offense, the depth behind them (in the minors), the aforementioned hitting coach Matt Stairs, and the improved pitching depth will keep the Phillies in more games than last year (above .500 through game 60 instead of game 45)\, plus winning a few more games through come-back games (both sides) and shorter loosing streaks late in the year.

Focus

1. Hitting depth is going to be the primary focus at all levels in 2017. The key guys are:
• Herrera & Franco in MLB
• I'd love to see Galvis, Joseph, Knapp, Hernandez, Altherr, Goeddel demonstrate they're part of the future... at least the next 2-3 years.
• SS JP Crawford, IF Alfaro, OF Cozens, IF Hoskins, IF Valentin, OF Quinn, & OF Williams in AAA
• IF Kingery at AA.
• 1B J. Ortiz & OF Moniak in A.
  
2. Maintaining our current pitching depth (minus Hellickson & Buchholz) is important for this year heading into 2018. Without free agents, we need ~7 starters ready in S.T. for a call-up pre-deadline. We need about 3-5 more ready for call-ups after the deadline. Seeing progress of the guys in the upper-tier of the minors (particularly the 6 that were up here in S.T.) will be key in 2017. Nola, Eickhoff, and Velasquez' development at the MLB-level is also a high priority.

Concern
 
Seeing the following guys make big steps this year means we have a new core in-progress: starters Nola, Eickhoff & Velasquez; relief P Neris; 3B Franco; and CF Herrera. We do have a fall-back: the upper-tier of the minors, but that is slower and more unknown at this time. Either will open the door to free agency next year. Otherwise, the Phillies will (thru unattractiveness or their own decision(s)) have to buy low in a huge free agent market and will be tough to watch the next year or two.

You ready for this year? They most likely won't contend but will be interesting to watch!