July 2016 Update - Rebuild Going Well in Year 2!

Hello, folks. It has been awhile. The Phillies have been evolving themselves in all aspects of the game and seemingly quickly. The rebuild is going great at all levels with at least half the names of last year have moved up a level and are keeping the AA & AAA squads well above .500. We’ll see most of them in the majors by next September (2017), with a chunk of them coming this year. At the major-league level, the Phillies are 6 games under .500… they are 12 games back of the division and 6 games back of the 2^nd wild card, with the NL East taking both wild card spots (St. Louis & Pittsburgh are between the Phils & Mets-Marlins). The 2015 Phillies were 33 games under .500 at the break and ended up the worst team in the majors at 63-99 and were able to draft OF Mickey Moniak at No. 1 this year. Nice improvement!!!

The rebuild is still the same as it was under Ruben Amaro, Jr. (no, the Red Sox are not failing at base-running): get some veterans to fill-in at the major-league level while the guys continue to develop in AA & AAA. Everyone should be ready for being traded or promoted (respectively) come July 31^st or even Aug. 31^st. There is a bit more emphasis on utilizing sabermetrics and advanced stats to sign certain players. So, here’s the new front office:

Team Owner: John Middleton

President: Andy MacPhail

Chairman: David Montgomery

Chairman Emeritus: Bill Giles

Sr Advisor: Pat Gillick

Gen. Manager: Matt Klentak

And the coaching staff has some changes now that Pete MacKanin is secured at the helm for the next 2-3 years:

Bench: Larry Bowa

Hitting: Steve Henderson

Pitching: Bob McClure

Bullpen: Rick Kranitz

1^st Base: Mickey Morandini

3^rd Base: Juan Samuel

Catching: John McLaren

The only changes are new coaches at Bullpen, First Base and Catching. Congrats, Mickey, on your promotion. He has been a manager for short-season A-affiliate Williamsport and low-A Lakewood and an All-Star 2B for the Phillies. A year or two ago, the Phillies coaching staff emphasized fundamentals (the whole organization did as well). So far at the majors, I am not dazzled by the results, despite their near-winning record at the Break. But I’ll cut them some slack as most of them only just got to the majors and had many coaching changes over the last few years. It is time to push though!

So the rebuild is going well – the AA & AAA teams are winning and the Phillies have drastically improved over this time last year. I must say that Pete has impressed me in that he is and was able to get his players on the same page unlike Ryne - do know that I really liked Ryne. The team does have some players improving in the fundamentals department... the best example of that is our lone representative to the All-Star Game, Odubel Herrera.

His walk rate has increased every half-season since an impressive rookie campaign where he put himself into consideration for a top-ten position in RoY voting. He’s even hitting more, trading off 2B for HRs, and taking better routes to fly balls! It’s not just Herrera that is better this year – the rotation has improved; Jenmar Gomez has found that he can be a good closer; and Franco, Joseph and Rupp are hitting like crazy. If the team as a whole can get better plate discipline, follow Burjols’ lead on defense, and keep the team in games pitching-wise, they will certainly contend for a division crown next year. This year, a WC berth is in reach but with a team of guys with little experience in being a part of a push for the post-season and meager experience in the majors; they ultimately will fall short in my opinion. Would be a great experience for these guys!

Speaking of Burjols, the trade rumors are flying like crazy. Howard, Chooch, Hellickson, and even guys like Rupp & Galvis are being talked about in addition to Pete B. While they need to make room for some guys this year, here’s an idea: the first three names on that list have experience with successful playoff races/ runs in Aug. & Sept. This would be a great mentoring opportunity, which the first two names on that list have been doing the past couple of years. And while Howard really has to go, he will be gone at the end of the season and I don’t think anyone will take him. Since they are contenders right now, they should strongly consider standing pat. I don’t think you need to trade for veterans – that will come this off-season or more likely next July or the following off-season. Back to this year… if the return is dazzling – probably won’t be – Klentak should go for it like he did with Ken Giles.

Enjoy the games!

The MacPhail Report: Amaro fired, MacKannin extended, off-season plan

RIP Yoggi Berra.

UPDATE: Phillies leaning toward re-signing OF Jeff Francouer, a move I will approve, if true.

Andy MacPhail, slated to be the Phillies' next president, is now actively making moves. A few weeks ago, he fired long-time GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. (I explored his legacy here) and removed the "interim" tag from MacKanin's job title, extending him through 2016 (includes 2017 club option). Extending Pete is the right move. For the first 2-3 weeks after the All-Star Break, the team had, at one point, the best record in baseball in that span. The move allows the team to focus on the GM search (expected to conclude in one month) & player development.

Speaking of future moves & player development, the latter is the most important mission for the Phillies next year. MacPhail is not planning to make a big splash in Free Agency this year. We already have a future core making progress in the minors, most of those players brought in by Rube. I'd like to congratulate the Reading Fightin' Phils on their ELCS appearance, as well as the Clearwater Threshers & Williamsport Crosscutters on their playoff berths. You have given the Phillies front office and its fans hope. Knock 'em dead throughout our system next year. In fact, some of those players - most notably J.P. Crawford (mid-year) & possibly Biddle and Knapp (in Aug. or Sept.) - will be in the majors next year.

MacPhail has also hinted that Howard will not return this year but will be with the team in Spring Training, unless a trade works out. Personally, I'd release him (as well as Jerome Williams, who has been terrible over the past few weeks). Howard (vs. RHP) & Ruf (vs. LHP) have become a solid platoon at 1B this year, although I've always wanted Ruf to earn the chance to become an everyday player.

I would also like to mention/ predict that next year, especially the first half despite MacKanin as manager, will be pretty ugly as well. Having Maikel Franco & Aaron Nola, getting rid of Aaron Harang & Jerome Williams, and seeing more of our prospects (especially from July onward) will lead to a better record - I'm thinking under 90 losses (not 100). 2017, when the Phillies no longer have any large-AAV, long-term contracts on the books, will probably see about 81 wins (.500 record). This factors in injuries and a 40-50% development success rate. With fewer injuries, less hindrance to prospect development, and a partially-subsequent 70% development rate, I see us in playoff contention in 2017, especially considering a weak NL East Division. The earliest we win a World Series or a Pennant is 2018 (this progression reminds me, a bit, of our rise to World Champs in 2005-2008).

Rebuild, Farewells, & Legacies

Hello, everyone. It has been awhile since I posted, but with rumors and moves seemingly coming every day, it made posting tough. As we know, at the beginning of the last offseason, the Phillies’ front office finally admitted that they needed to rebuild the roster: free agents + 2008 core no longer results in 85+ wins. This announcement, of course, should have happened at the end of 2013, the first of two 73-89 seasons. They announced that they would restock the farm system through drafting players (mostly college students in the first ten rounds) and trading veterans –AND– sign low-price-medium-risk-medium-age-medium-reward free agents (like Francouer, Williams, & Harang) to help ease the transition.

The task was not going to be easy: The Phillies didn’t seem to have lots of leverage and prospects have taken on a new meaning – more valuable now than when the Phillies were getting/ sending away Pence, Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, etc. However, the Phillies got the trades done: Ryan Howard & Carlos Ruiz are the only players left from the 2008 World Championship team. They drafted college players early (Nola), some high school players late, took a chance in the Rule 5 draft on a AA player (Herrera) and went for broke on the international market earlier this year (OF-1B Jhailyn Ortiz). Here are the trades:

1.      LHP Antonio Bastardo to Pirates for LHP Joely Rodriguez

2.      SS Jimmy Rollins to Dodgers for LHP Tom Windle & RHP Zach Eflin (from Padres)

3.      RF Marlon Byrd to Reds for P Ben Lively

4.      RHP CL Jon Papelbon to Nats for RHP Nick Pivetta

5.      LHPs Cole Hamels & Jake Diekman to Rangers for Matt Harrison, C Jorge Alfaro, RHP Jerad Eickhoff, OF Nick Williams, RHP Alec Asher and RHP Jake Thompson

6.      OF Ben Revere to Blue Jays for RHP Jimmy Cordero and RHP Alberto Tirado

7.      2B Chase Utley to Dodgers for IF Sweeney & RHP John Richy

That’s eight (8) players gone and fifteen (15) returned, which provides us with a lot of depth in addition to probably one or two more in a trade for Chooch and the draft:

·         2010 1^st Round pick – LHP Jesse Biddle (AAA)

·         2011 2^nd Round pick - OF Roman Quinn (AA Reading DL)

·         2013: SS J.P. Crawford (AA) & C Andrew Knapp (our first two selections)

·         2015 1^st Round pick  Randolph (2015 1^st Rounder)

o   Nola was our 2014 1^st-Round pick

·         Former Intl F.A., now 3B Maikel Franco (DL – to return soon)

·         RHP CL Ken Giles and the entire bullpen (most developed by the Phillies org.)

o   LHP Mario Hollands (60-Day DL)

·         LF-3B Cody Asche (2011 4^th Round pick) – probably a utility player at this point but still with .280-AVG potential.

·         OF Aaron Altherr (2009 9^th round pick)

·         Former Intl FA’s, now Utility IFs Freddy Galvis & Cesar Hernandez

·         Former 2009 pick, now LF-1B Darin Ruf

The future is looking a lot brighter, especially with Reading taking the triple crown of honors: best record, best player & best manager. Congrats!!!

I do want to mention that this is not the way to run a system. They should have stopped trading after acquiring Halladay (him, Lee, & Hamels in the rotation) – no Oswalt. Also, we really didn’t need Pence. Signing Papelbon to $12.5MM AAV over four years was way overpriced, even w/ a 2.5-3-ERA & 90% SV pctg. And in early 2010, instead of signing Howard for three years past arbitration, they could have just let him hit free agency. Most importantly, instead of trading those prospects away, they could have called them up or promoted them, which the Cardinals do with their prospects – works very well for them. And the Phillies seem to haver a habit of hindering prospects’ development.

All of that is in the past. Ruben Amaro, Jr. is probably on his way out. A new manager (well, maybe MacKanin) and president are coming in and the latter may choose to have a G.M. more amenable to advanced stats.

Speaking of Amaro, what is his legacy? Right now I boil it down to three points:

1.      102 wins in 2011 was awesome to see.

2.      Bad Moves

a.       Not noticing steady decline in postseason results was because of declining offense (also blame Charlie Manuel for not seeing this – see #3)

b.      Extending Howard two years before hitting free-agency

c.      Trading players after Halladay cost the Phillies prospects

d.      Free-Agent signings to keep team afloat cost the Phillies draft picks

e.       Bad draft philosophy & hindering prospect development

3.      And finally, the public humiliations of Manuel, Howard, Utley and us fans after 2013.

-   None of his flaws (2a) made a mid-year firing ok.

However, a GM’s legacy is not complete until the prospects he acquires reach the majors, although it may not be enough to combat the above points.. As for Hamels & Utley, their legacy in Philadelphia is as follows:

Thank you, Cole & Chase for your dedication to the Phillies from your drafting to your debuts and to your All-Star appearances and the 2008 Championship. Chase, your baseball brain & hustle was fun to watch, the latter unfortunately resulting in decartilaged knees. Cole, thank you for the work you did/ do through your foundation. Your dedication, guys, is an inspiration to all Phillies fans and even current, former, and future Phillies coaches and players. You have earned the right to being traded to a contender in order to acquire more run support, Cole, and for both of you… wins & at least one more World Series ring. Upon retirement, you have every right to retire as a Phillie – on a one-day contract or as a coach/ instructor and should easily get a plaque on the Toyota Wall of Fame and even perhaps in Cooperstown. One last time, Thank You! Best of Luck in your baseball endeavors!

All-Star Report

It was not a very successful All-Star Festival for the Phillies as Papelbon continued to reiterate his desire to leave ("Trade me or get off the pot") and did not play in the game. After pitching 6 innings over the weekend, Aaron Nola also didn't pitch in the Futures game. He'll make his ML debut tomorrow vs. the Rays. The only All-Star success story for a Phillies organization player is SS J.P. Crawford - drove in a run & continued to flash leather in the Futures Game. However, Philly natives Todd Fraizer (Toms River, NJ) and Mike Trout (Millville, NJ) stole the show by winning the Derby & the All-Star Game MVP respectively.

Commentary & Analysis

Papelbon needs to learn how to say "no comment" on trade rumors.

Nola's debut comes at an interesting time. His last start was a rough outing - L, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 R (2 HR, 5 ER) in 3 innings. In his last three starts combined: 15 IP, 11 R (10 earned for an 6.00 ERA & 3 HRs), 27 base-runners for an 1.80 WHIP and 15 Ks & 4 BB. These starts were on the road, which I pointed out has been an issue for him. And showing resiliency has been Ruben Amaro, Jr.'s No. 1 mentioned prerequisite for a debut. I guess he's making up for (1) holding him back in AA & disparaging fans in the process and (2) trying to increase ticket sales. It is worth noting that about half of the ML debuts of starting pitchers over the past 5-6 years have not gone well (via CSNPhilly,com). Perhaps Nola's reputation as being the most polished in last year's draft and a desire to bounce back will improve our averages slightly, plus he's debuting at home. Best of luck, Aaron.

Crawford, if all goes well, seems likely to make his debut in the middle of 2016. If all goes well for him, if Quinn recovers from injury and debuts in 2017, if Utley & Howard are gone, if Cole Hamels & Jon Papelbon (and possibly others like Revere, Frenchy, Brown, Chooch) are traded for good prospects (hitters), and if most of our top-level starting pitchers make an impact... then I think 2018 and possibly 2017 will be great years for the organization.

Congrats to the All-Stars on your selections & recent successes the past week. Good luck to all!

A Rotation in Limbo

Today, I make sense of the whirlwind of roster moves the Phillies made over the last 36 hours. I’ll start with a summary:

• Sean O'Sullivan (1-6, 6.08 ERA; 0-3, 10.88 ERA in last 8) has been out-righted off 40-Man; he can elect free-agency or report to AAA.
• Hector Neris has been recalled from AAA, at least until Saturday, when David Buchannan will rejoin the rotation after ineffectiveness & injury.
• Kevin Correia (0-3, 6.56 ERA; 0 quality starts) has been designated for assignment & Severino Gonzalez has been recalled once again to fill his spot.
• 2014 1st-Rd pick Aaron Nola (3-0, 2.28 ERA @ AAA) is likely to debut shortly following his appearance at Sunday’s Futures Game.
• To fill Gonzlaez’s spot in AAA, the Phillies finally promoted 2010 1^st-rounder Jesse Biddle after a career 4.18 ERA in parts of 3 years in AA (7-2, 4.34 ERA this season).

Analysis

Out with the old, in with the new as the aging veterans are sent down/ away and the younger guys move up. The veterans in the rotation, except for Hamels & Harang, have struggled to hold the fort as the younger guys develop. Many were injured, but the ones who largely remained healthy have not gotten past inning 5 most of the time. This put tremendous strain on the bullpen: getting a fresh arm in the is part of the reason for these moves. This rotation shake-up is great for the Phillies’ future – time to start evaluating all these players for 2016 & beyond.

Buchannan is back after a rough first-half of the year. Gonzalez has struggled in limited action in the bigs this year, but being a rookie & constantly shuttled back-and-forth hasn’t helped much. Biddle has had a rollercoaster-style development, but his lack of control (high BB-rate) & mental issues have held him at AA the last few years despite skipping Lakewood. Although, I do think Rube made some bad decisions: not considering lack of run support as a possible reason for his 5-14 record in ’13. He’s still off (good record, highish ERA) but I think he’s had enough tests in AA. Nola is very close. Some minor kinks (shortening his at-bats plus solving his road ERA differential I mentioned two weeks ago) to work out this month, but if he can do well in the Futures game and have most of his July starts w/ 6.1 IP or more, expect him at the majors in late-July/ early Aug.

In other news, congrats go out - once again - to Maikel Franco on his selection as the NL Rookie of the Month for June. Further congrats to Jon Papelbon upon being selected as lone Phillie representative to the All-Star game. The Phillies recently signed Dominican Slugger Jhailyn Ortiz for $4.5MM bonus and traded two A-level pitching prospects to the D'Backs for the No. 1 slot – in order to avoid a stiff penalty. And Chase Utley is on the 15-Day DL w/ ankle issues and not expected to return until late-month. Not too long ago, Amaro said that Chase will be second on the depth chart behind Hernandez upon his return. Another #RuinTomorrowMoment by the Phils’ GM.

Next entry is likely to be the projections on Jesse Biddle, and I may have updated projections on Nola based on his AAA numbers. I may also have an All-Star festivities recap, including Nola’s & Crawford’s Futures game performances.

Nola Projections, Outburst of Runs

First, congratulations go out to our first selection in last year's MLB Draft (at No. 7 overall), righty starter Aaron Nola, on his promotion to AAA. As promised, I have his projected stats at the majors adjusted for park factors at home. First, a few stats from the last two Phillies games:

• Maikel Franco has been on a roll ever since his promotion to the bigs. By taking advantage of playing pretty much everyday, Franco has shown himself to be a true ML player on offense AND defense. His play thus far (and extending into AAA of course), is deserving of an All-Star nod, along with Hamels, and possibly Harang & Pap... despite the team having the worst record in the majors). Yesterday, he went 4-5:
• He hit 2 homers - first career multi-homer game (coincidentally, Kris Bryant of the Cubs also had his first career multi-homer game).
• He drove in 5 runs, becoming the first Phillies rookie to drive in 5 in a game since Howard in Aug. 2005. Let's hope Franco's career doesn't resemble Howard's trends.
• The Phillies scored 20 runs in the last two games, which took them 10.5 games to reach leading up to those wins.
• The only player w/o a hit yesterday was Utley, who was the DH at Yankee Stadium and went 0-4. Only one strike-out but it's clear that Hernandez deserves more playing time right now at 2B and that Utley needs to retire at the end of the year.

Nola

And now, I discuss Aaron Nola. Here are his projections (Excel screen capture):

His Projections: 2.37 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 0.85 HR/9, 7.09 K/9, and 5.78 K:BB and 193 IP over 33 starts. It is clear to me that he was the most polished pitcher in the draft last year, although road woes could be an issue in the majors.

Method

The park factors only applied at home and I used a straight-up ratio. I used raw averages to project his strike-out, base-on-balls, innings pitched, & hit-batters (HBP) numbers as most of that is within Nola's control (i.e. not dependent on defense & park factors). To project over a full season (only needed to do that for HBP & IP), I took his limits last year & the fact he did make one bullpen appearance (23 starts) into consideration. I think he'll be a 200-IP/YR pitcher (like Cole Hamels).

So, congrats to Nola, and to all our young guys at the major- -& minor-league levels... good luck.

Gillick

One more thing - some commentary on what Pat Gillick said the other day: (1) Rube's & Ryne's jobs are safe for now; (2) there's no word on the Andy MacPhil rumors; (3) the Phillies may take a bit longer to contend (2019).

I think that if someone else comes in as Team Prez (like MacPhil), that's when Rube will be gone. Ryne may follow shortly thereafter but I think he's worth keeping until the Phillies contend (remember that he's been managing a crappy team). As for when contention occurs, I think 2017 & especially 2018 still seems like a good estimate. From what I've seen at the MLB-level & heard coming out of the MiLB-levels, plus the recent draft, the Phillies could contend for the 2nd Wild Card in 2017, perhaps the division in '17 & '18 pending moves by the Nats, Braves, Marlins & Mets.

Another Ruin Tomorrow Moment, Trade Chips

First, I'd like to wish everyone a belated Happy Memorial Day, especially to the men and women in uniform & particularly the fallen. I get to enjoy playing my clarinet & saxophone, weather forecasting, computer & web programming, and sports watching & analysis because of your sacrifice. Thank you!

By now, you have heard what Amaro said yesterday about Philly fans in regards to wanting the organization to be aggressive with its prospects, particularly at AA & especially Nola. Here's the quote:

“They don’t understand the game,” Amaro said. "They don’t understand the process. There’s a process. And then they bitch and complain because we don’t have a plan. There’s a plan in place and we’re sticking with the plan. We can’t do what’s best for the fan. We have to do what’s best for the organization so the fan can reap the benefit of it later on. That’s the truth.”

That first sentence is incredibly insulting to fans. It is bad business to insult the paying customer, as Brian Michael of PhilliesNation.com said earlier today. I also agree with Brian's proposal for Rube to explain what he the organization/ front office plans to do to get us to contention by 2017. Perhaps he wants to see if Nola is resilient at AA (much like he wanted for Giles last year). Perhaps he will wait until a team bites on Cole or promoting Nola and either Efflin or Biddle, although promoting Nola now, with injuries to Buchannan & Billingsley, will more quickly create some starting pitching depth.

We don't know but would very much love for Rube or Gillick or SOMEONE to tell us. If that is not the case, then the front office has absolutely no business insulting us. During today's edition of Philly Sports Talk, Rube acknowledged that he "probably" misspoke, used a poor choice of words in his Monday interview with Jim Salisbury. Rube also acknowledged that they should have begun the transition years ago. Jim Salisbury said that Rube is sincere in his apology, bringing up a quote saying that fan support led them to want to contend over the past few years.

After a long internal debate, I accept Ruben Amaro, Jr.'s apology but I cannot yet forgive him. Most of his tenure has been negative. I don't think he's calling the shots on any of the major moves, which is a good thing, but he needs to go. I think I will be able to forgive him if he either says that he'll leave after a one-year extension... or better yet, resign immediately or at least as soon as game 162 is in the books.

UPDATE - Poll Available here until the trade deadline. I hope for tons of responses.

Rube is reluctant to promote our top prospects. When would you promote one of our top 20 prospects?

	After a full-yr in any level
	4 months
	2-3 months
	6-8 weeks
	3-5 weeks

  Show results

Votes so far: 0
Days left to vote: 16

Now, in that same interview, Rube talked about how the veterans are doing. So, let's talk numbers:

• Cole Hamels, in his last seven starts (48.1 IP) is 5-1 with a 2.23 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.17 K/9, and a K:BB ratio above 3:1, and is 4-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his last 4 games.
• Aaron Harang is 4-4 overall (10 starts, 65.1 IP) with a 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, and a near-3:1-K:BB-ratio.
• Pap, Giles, & Garcia each have an ERA less than 4.0, with Pap & Giles with a 1.5-1.9 ERA. Unfortunately, after the Nats series, De Fratus' ERA jumped to 4.3 from 3.4 - I blame Ryne for poor decisions - and Diekman has an ERA over 7.0. The good news: the bullpen, overall, has been a strength of the team.
• As I've been posting on Twitter, Howard & Utley have been valuable to the Phillies lately. Howard, since hitting his first homer of the season on 4/21, has a .999 OPS - didn't think that would happen when I predicted a bounce back year for him. Utley, in his last 15 games, has a .904 OPS. Both have full no-trade rights.
• 3B Maikel Franco has brought his hot bat from AAA to the majors. He is 10-for-43 at the plate w/ a 2B, a 3B, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, 3 BB, 5 Ks, and a .724 OPS.
• SS Freddy Galvis has cooled off as of late, hitting .189 in his last 9 games but is still hitting .314 on the season.
• C Carlos Ruiz is not perfoming well offensively, costing the Phillies about five runs at the plate, but he still controls the dish defensively and is one of those players who turns on the bat in the second half. Should be a nice addition to a trade.
• As I mentioned before, most of the minor leaguers are doing well: Asche (LF @ AAA), Brown (RF @ AAA), Efflin & Nola (AA), and Crawford (Clearwater) are among those performing well.

Hope everyone has a great week! Enjoy the games!