It was not a very successful All-Star Festival for the Phillies as Papelbon continued to reiterate his desire to leave ("Trade me or get off the pot") and did not play in the game. After pitching 6 innings over the weekend, Aaron Nola also didn't pitch in the Futures game. He'll make his ML debut tomorrow vs. the Rays. The only All-Star success story for a Phillies organization player is SS J.P. Crawford - drove in a run & continued to flash leather in the Futures Game. However, Philly natives Todd Fraizer (Toms River, NJ) and Mike Trout (Millville, NJ) stole the show by winning the Derby & the All-Star Game MVP respectively.
Commentary & Analysis
Papelbon needs to learn how to say "no comment" on trade rumors.
Nola's debut comes at an interesting time. His last start was a rough outing - L, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 R (2 HR, 5 ER) in 3 innings. In his last three starts combined: 15 IP, 11 R (10 earned for an 6.00 ERA & 3 HRs), 27 base-runners for an 1.80 WHIP and 15 Ks & 4 BB. These starts were on the road, which I pointed out has been an issue for him. And showing resiliency has been Ruben Amaro, Jr.'s No. 1 mentioned prerequisite for a debut. I guess he's making up for (1) holding him back in AA & disparaging fans in the process and (2) trying to increase ticket sales. It is worth noting that about half of the ML debuts of starting pitchers over the past 5-6 years have not gone well (via CSNPhilly,com). Perhaps Nola's reputation as being the most polished in last year's draft and a desire to bounce back will improve our averages slightly, plus he's debuting at home. Best of luck, Aaron.
Crawford, if all goes well, seems likely to make his debut in the middle of 2016. If all goes well for him, if Quinn recovers from injury and debuts in 2017, if Utley & Howard are gone, if Cole Hamels & Jon Papelbon (and possibly others like Revere, Frenchy, Brown, Chooch) are traded for good prospects (hitters), and if most of our top-level starting pitchers make an impact... then I think 2018 and possibly 2017 will be great years for the organization.
Congrats to the All-Stars on your selections & recent successes the past week. Good luck to all!
Monday, July 20, 2015
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
A Rotation in Limbo
Today, I make sense of the whirlwind of roster moves the Phillies made over the last 36 hours. I’ll start with a summary:
- Sean O'Sullivan (1-6, 6.08 ERA; 0-3, 10.88 ERA in last 8) has been out-righted off 40-Man; he can elect free-agency or report to AAA.
- Hector Neris has been recalled from AAA, at least until Saturday, when David Buchannan will rejoin the rotation after ineffectiveness & injury.
- Kevin Correia (0-3, 6.56 ERA; 0 quality starts) has been designated for assignment & Severino Gonzalez has been recalled once again to fill his spot.
- 2014 1st-Rd pick Aaron Nola (3-0, 2.28 ERA @ AAA) is likely to debut shortly following his appearance at Sunday’s Futures Game.
- To fill Gonzlaez’s spot in AAA, the Phillies finally promoted 2010 1st-rounder Jesse Biddle after a career 4.18 ERA in parts of 3 years in AA (7-2, 4.34 ERA this season).
Analysis
Out
with the old, in with the new as the aging veterans are sent down/ away and
the younger guys move up. The veterans in the rotation, except for Hamels & Harang, have struggled to
hold the fort as the younger guys develop. Many were injured, but the ones who
largely remained healthy have not gotten past inning 5 most of the time. This put
tremendous strain on the bullpen: getting a fresh arm in the is part of the reason for these moves. This rotation shake-up is great for the Phillies’
future – time to start evaluating all these players for 2016 & beyond.
Buchannan is back after a
rough first-half of the year. Gonzalez
has struggled in limited action in the bigs this year, but being a rookie &
constantly shuttled back-and-forth hasn’t helped much. Biddle has had a rollercoaster-style development, but his lack of control
(high BB-rate) & mental issues have held him at AA the last few years
despite skipping Lakewood. Although, I do think Rube made some bad decisions: not
considering lack of run support as a possible reason for his 5-14 record in ’13. He’s
still off (good record, highish ERA) but I think he’s had enough tests in AA. Nola is very close. Some minor kinks (shortening his at-bats plus solving his road ERA differential I mentioned two weeks ago) to work out this
month, but if he can do well in the Futures game and have most of his July
starts w/ 6.1 IP or more, expect him at the majors in late-July/ early Aug.
In
other news, congrats go out - once again - to Maikel Franco on his selection as the NL Rookie of the Month for June. Further congrats to Jon Papelbon upon being selected as lone Phillie representative to
the All-Star game. The Phillies recently signed Dominican Slugger
Jhailyn Ortiz for $4.5MM bonus and traded two A-level pitching prospects to the
D'Backs for the No. 1 slot – in order to avoid a stiff penalty.
And Chase Utley is on the 15-Day DL w/ ankle issues and not expected to return
until late-month. Not too long ago, Amaro said that Chase will be second on the
depth chart behind Hernandez upon his return. Another #RuinTomorrowMoment by
the Phils’ GM.
Next
entry is likely to be the projections on Jesse Biddle, and I may have updated
projections on Nola based on his AAA numbers. I may also have an All-Star
festivities recap, including Nola’s & Crawford’s Futures game performances.
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
Nola Projections, Outburst of Runs
First, congratulations go out to our first selection in last year's MLB Draft (at No. 7 overall), righty starter Aaron Nola, on his promotion to AAA. As promised, I have his projected stats at the majors adjusted for park factors at home. First, a few stats from the last two Phillies games:
And now, I discuss Aaron Nola. Here are his projections (Excel screen capture):
His Projections: 2.37 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 0.85 HR/9, 7.09 K/9, and 5.78 K:BB and 193 IP over 33 starts. It is clear to me that he was the most polished pitcher in the draft last year, although road woes could be an issue in the majors.
Method
The park factors only applied at home and I used a straight-up ratio. I used raw averages to project his strike-out, base-on-balls, innings pitched, & hit-batters (HBP) numbers as most of that is within Nola's control (i.e. not dependent on defense & park factors). To project over a full season (only needed to do that for HBP & IP), I took his limits last year & the fact he did make one bullpen appearance (23 starts) into consideration. I think he'll be a 200-IP/YR pitcher (like Cole Hamels).
So, congrats to Nola, and to all our young guys at the major- -& minor-league levels... good luck.
Gillick
One more thing - some commentary on what Pat Gillick said the other day: (1) Rube's & Ryne's jobs are safe for now; (2) there's no word on the Andy MacPhil rumors; (3) the Phillies may take a bit longer to contend (2019).
I think that if someone else comes in as Team Prez (like MacPhil), that's when Rube will be gone. Ryne may follow shortly thereafter but I think he's worth keeping until the Phillies contend (remember that he's been managing a crappy team). As for when contention occurs, I think 2017 & especially 2018 still seems like a good estimate. From what I've seen at the MLB-level & heard coming out of the MiLB-levels, plus the recent draft, the Phillies could contend for the 2nd Wild Card in 2017, perhaps the division in '17 & '18 pending moves by the Nats, Braves, Marlins & Mets.
- Maikel Franco has been on a roll ever since his promotion to the bigs. By taking advantage of playing pretty much everyday, Franco has shown himself to be a true ML player on offense AND defense. His play thus far (and extending into AAA of course), is deserving of an All-Star nod, along with Hamels, and possibly Harang & Pap... despite the team having the worst record in the majors). Yesterday, he went 4-5:
- He hit 2 homers - first career multi-homer game (coincidentally, Kris Bryant of the Cubs also had his first career multi-homer game).
- He drove in 5 runs, becoming the first Phillies rookie to drive in 5 in a game since Howard in Aug. 2005. Let's hope Franco's career doesn't resemble Howard's trends.
- The Phillies scored 20 runs in the last two games, which took them 10.5 games to reach leading up to those wins.
- The only player w/o a hit yesterday was Utley, who was the DH at Yankee Stadium and went 0-4. Only one strike-out but it's clear that Hernandez deserves more playing time right now at 2B and that Utley needs to retire at the end of the year.
And now, I discuss Aaron Nola. Here are his projections (Excel screen capture):
His Projections: 2.37 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 0.85 HR/9, 7.09 K/9, and 5.78 K:BB and 193 IP over 33 starts. It is clear to me that he was the most polished pitcher in the draft last year, although road woes could be an issue in the majors.
Method
The park factors only applied at home and I used a straight-up ratio. I used raw averages to project his strike-out, base-on-balls, innings pitched, & hit-batters (HBP) numbers as most of that is within Nola's control (i.e. not dependent on defense & park factors). To project over a full season (only needed to do that for HBP & IP), I took his limits last year & the fact he did make one bullpen appearance (23 starts) into consideration. I think he'll be a 200-IP/YR pitcher (like Cole Hamels).
So, congrats to Nola, and to all our young guys at the major- -& minor-league levels... good luck.
Gillick
One more thing - some commentary on what Pat Gillick said the other day: (1) Rube's & Ryne's jobs are safe for now; (2) there's no word on the Andy MacPhil rumors; (3) the Phillies may take a bit longer to contend (2019).
I think that if someone else comes in as Team Prez (like MacPhil), that's when Rube will be gone. Ryne may follow shortly thereafter but I think he's worth keeping until the Phillies contend (remember that he's been managing a crappy team). As for when contention occurs, I think 2017 & especially 2018 still seems like a good estimate. From what I've seen at the MLB-level & heard coming out of the MiLB-levels, plus the recent draft, the Phillies could contend for the 2nd Wild Card in 2017, perhaps the division in '17 & '18 pending moves by the Nats, Braves, Marlins & Mets.
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Another Ruin Tomorrow Moment, Trade Chips
First, I'd like to wish everyone a belated Happy Memorial Day, especially to the men and women in uniform & particularly the fallen. I get to enjoy playing my clarinet & saxophone, weather forecasting, computer & web programming, and sports watching & analysis because of your sacrifice. Thank you!
By now, you have heard what Amaro said yesterday about Philly fans in regards to wanting the organization to be aggressive with its prospects, particularly at AA & especially Nola. Here's the quote:
“They don’t understand the game,” Amaro said. "They don’t understand the process. There’s a process. And then they bitch and complain because we don’t have a plan. There’s a plan in place and we’re sticking with the plan. We can’t do what’s best for the fan. We have to do what’s best for the organization so the fan can reap the benefit of it later on. That’s the truth.”
That first sentence is incredibly insulting to fans. It is bad business to insult the paying customer, as Brian Michael of PhilliesNation.com said earlier today. I also agree with Brian's proposal for Rube to explain whathe the organization/ front office plans to do to get us to contention by 2017. Perhaps he wants to see if Nola is resilient
at AA (much like he wanted for Giles last year). Perhaps he will wait
until a team bites on Cole or promoting Nola and either Efflin or
Biddle, although promoting Nola now, with injuries to Buchannan &
Billingsley, will more quickly create some starting pitching depth.
We don't know but would very much love for Rube or Gillick or SOMEONE to tell us. If that is not the case, then the front office has absolutely no business insulting us. During today's edition of Philly Sports Talk, Rube acknowledged that he "probably" misspoke, used a poor choice of words in his Monday interview with Jim Salisbury. Rube also acknowledged that they should have begun the transition years ago. Jim Salisbury said that Rube is sincere in his apology, bringing up a quote saying that fan support led them to want to contend over the past few years.
After a long internal debate, I accept Ruben Amaro, Jr.'s apology but I cannot yet forgive him. Most of his tenure has been negative. I don't think he's calling the shots on any of the major moves, which is a good thing, but he needs to go. I think I will be able to forgive him if he either says that he'll leave after a one-year extension... or better yet, resign immediately or at least as soon as game 162 is in the books.
UPDATE - Poll Available here until the trade deadline. I hope for tons of responses.
Now, in that same interview, Rube talked about how the veterans are doing. So, let's talk numbers:
By now, you have heard what Amaro said yesterday about Philly fans in regards to wanting the organization to be aggressive with its prospects, particularly at AA & especially Nola. Here's the quote:
“They don’t understand the game,” Amaro said. "They don’t understand the process. There’s a process. And then they bitch and complain because we don’t have a plan. There’s a plan in place and we’re sticking with the plan. We can’t do what’s best for the fan. We have to do what’s best for the organization so the fan can reap the benefit of it later on. That’s the truth.”
That first sentence is incredibly insulting to fans. It is bad business to insult the paying customer, as Brian Michael of PhilliesNation.com said earlier today. I also agree with Brian's proposal for Rube to explain what
We don't know but would very much love for Rube or Gillick or SOMEONE to tell us. If that is not the case, then the front office has absolutely no business insulting us. During today's edition of Philly Sports Talk, Rube acknowledged that he "probably" misspoke, used a poor choice of words in his Monday interview with Jim Salisbury. Rube also acknowledged that they should have begun the transition years ago. Jim Salisbury said that Rube is sincere in his apology, bringing up a quote saying that fan support led them to want to contend over the past few years.
After a long internal debate, I accept Ruben Amaro, Jr.'s apology but I cannot yet forgive him. Most of his tenure has been negative. I don't think he's calling the shots on any of the major moves, which is a good thing, but he needs to go. I think I will be able to forgive him if he either says that he'll leave after a one-year extension... or better yet, resign immediately or at least as soon as game 162 is in the books.
UPDATE - Poll Available here until the trade deadline. I hope for tons of responses.
Votes so far: 0
Days left to vote: 16
Days left to vote: 16
Now, in that same interview, Rube talked about how the veterans are doing. So, let's talk numbers:
- Cole Hamels, in his last seven starts (48.1 IP) is 5-1 with a 2.23 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.17 K/9, and a K:BB ratio above 3:1, and is 4-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his last 4 games.
- Aaron Harang is 4-4 overall (10 starts, 65.1 IP) with a 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, and a near-3:1-K:BB-ratio.
- Pap, Giles, & Garcia each have an ERA less than 4.0, with Pap & Giles with a 1.5-1.9 ERA. Unfortunately, after the Nats series, De Fratus' ERA jumped to 4.3 from 3.4 - I blame Ryne for poor decisions - and Diekman has an ERA over 7.0. The good news: the bullpen, overall, has been a strength of the team.
- As I've been posting on Twitter, Howard & Utley have been valuable to the Phillies lately. Howard, since hitting his first homer of the season on 4/21, has a .999 OPS - didn't think that would happen when I predicted a bounce back year for him. Utley, in his last 15 games, has a .904 OPS. Both have full no-trade rights.
- 3B Maikel Franco has brought his hot bat from AAA to the majors. He is 10-for-43 at the plate w/ a 2B, a 3B, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, 3 BB, 5 Ks, and a .724 OPS.
- SS Freddy Galvis has cooled off as of late, hitting .189 in his last 9 games but is still hitting .314 on the season.
- C Carlos Ruiz is not perfoming well offensively, costing the Phillies about five runs at the plate, but he still controls the dish defensively and is one of those players who turns on the bat in the second half. Should be a nice addition to a trade.
- As I mentioned before, most of the minor leaguers are doing well: Asche (LF @ AAA), Brown (RF @ AAA), Efflin & Nola (AA), and Crawford (Clearwater) are among those performing well.
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
Phillies Won Six-Straight... Wait, what?!
That six-game winning streak was AWESOME!!! Man, what a ride! When I said to be optimistic, I never expected the Phillies to put together a winning streak like this. Maybe a few three- and four-game streaks en-route to ~75 wins. Man, what a ride! The Phillies have been stellar. First, I focus on the offense.
The Phillies, in the past 7 days have the best batting avg. in the NL (.300) and this is nothing new... their .264 May AVG is tied for 4th-best in NL in that span. I won't delve into more rankings but they've improved in most of the offensive categories I've discussed in my last entry. I feel bad for Ryne: He said that it'll be tough taking a hot bat out of the line-up and now, almost everyone is hot. Here's what the team has done the past week:
OK, I don't need to feel bad as that is a good problem to have. Plus, the clubhouse is full of good vibe (per Phillies.com) as a result. With communication difficulties from last year and Ryne's promise to keep hot-hitters in, it still could create a bit of tension. However, as long as their winning, I don't see tension being a major problem. This won't push them into contention this year, but most of the young guys are hot and the veterans are slowly increasing their trade value. For the front office, it bodes somewhat well for them as the team's future looks bright here & in the minors (AA).
Now, let's talk pitching. The team's 2.47 ERA in past 7 G is the best ERA in the NL in that span... and they have the 11th-lowest May ERA in the majors (tied with the Mariners at 3.78). And here are the individual stats showing stellar performances by everyone the past week, except (unfortunately) for Giles, De Fratus, & Diekman (they've been played a lot though):
So far, everyone has improved. Most of these players aren't usually good in April, as we have come to experience over the past decade (yes, I said decade). So, this wasn't completely unexpected. I will conclude with the following fact: The Phillies won 17 out of the 41 games they played, putting them on-pace for 67 wins. Given what has just transpired and their 9-9 record in May, I think 75-or-more wins is still on the table. Enjoy the games!
-------------------------------------
Stats courtesy FanGraphs.com
The Phillies, in the past 7 days have the best batting avg. in the NL (.300) and this is nothing new... their .264 May AVG is tied for 4th-best in NL in that span. I won't delve into more rankings but they've improved in most of the offensive categories I've discussed in my last entry. I feel bad for Ryne: He said that it'll be tough taking a hot bat out of the line-up and now, almost everyone is hot. Here's what the team has done the past week:
OK, I don't need to feel bad as that is a good problem to have. Plus, the clubhouse is full of good vibe (per Phillies.com) as a result. With communication difficulties from last year and Ryne's promise to keep hot-hitters in, it still could create a bit of tension. However, as long as their winning, I don't see tension being a major problem. This won't push them into contention this year, but most of the young guys are hot and the veterans are slowly increasing their trade value. For the front office, it bodes somewhat well for them as the team's future looks bright here & in the minors (AA).
Now, let's talk pitching. The team's 2.47 ERA in past 7 G is the best ERA in the NL in that span... and they have the 11th-lowest May ERA in the majors (tied with the Mariners at 3.78). And here are the individual stats showing stellar performances by everyone the past week, except (unfortunately) for Giles, De Fratus, & Diekman (they've been played a lot though):
So far, everyone has improved. Most of these players aren't usually good in April, as we have come to experience over the past decade (yes, I said decade). So, this wasn't completely unexpected. I will conclude with the following fact: The Phillies won 17 out of the 41 games they played, putting them on-pace for 67 wins. Given what has just transpired and their 9-9 record in May, I think 75-or-more wins is still on the table. Enjoy the games!
-------------------------------------
Stats courtesy FanGraphs.com
Friday, May 1, 2015
Breaking Down the Phillies' April Stats
The Phillies were aweful in April... no denying it, but why? What went wrong? Well, I take a look through the stats and see what was good (yes, there was one good aspect), bad, ugly, and improvement-bound.
Pitching/ Fielding
WHIP: 1.49 (T highest)
K/9: 7.29 (18th highest)
ERA: 4.28 (10th highest)
Fldg. Pctg: .978 (5th lowest)
UZR: 1.6 (13th)
Pitching FIP: 4.47 (5th highest)
Pitching HR/9: 0.95 (middle of pack)
Pitching xFIP: 4.53 (5th highest)
We need to improve our pitching and our defense, although more so the former since we've improved greatly in fielding since that home Marlins' series. We have the highest WHIP (Walks & Hits per Inning Pitched) & are getting toward the bottom third in strikeouts per 9 IP and that has led to both high ERA and FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching). Our bad defense is not a function of bad range (measured via the UZR - ultimate zone rating - stat), but making routine plays, which led to a lot of problems, but the pitchers did allow a lot of base-runners. We did ok in terms of limiting the long ball, especially after the first week, so xFIP (FIP plus HR taken into account) remains about the same ranking as FIP. April was ugly for pitching as a whole, but expect continued improvement, especially in FIP. Next, I see who's most to blame for our lack of success: starters (besides Harang) or relievers.
Pitching Splits
Rotation
WHIP: 1.42 (8th highest)
K/9: 6.78 (18th best/ 12th worst)
HR/9: 1.19 (8th highest)
FIP: 4.71 (5th highest)
xFIP: 4.49 (7th highest)
ERA: 4.97 (7th highest)
Bullpen
WHIP: 1.61 (highest)
K/9: 8.20 (middle)
HR/9: 0.50 (9th lowest)
FIP: 4.03 (13th highest)
xFIP: 4.59 (3rd highest)
ERA: 3.03 (8th lowest)
These splits could change easily every five days, with some changing daily. However, I see that the bullpen still allows a god share of base-runners, but has been better at limiting the damage through better K/9 and lower HR/9. The conclusion: our rotation needs to improve the most. Once again, the bullpen is the strength of this team.
Batting
Plate Discipline
P/PA: 3.6 (T lowest but low spread amongst MLB teams)
K-rate: 18.3% (7th best)
BB-rate: 6.7% (7th lowest)
BABIP: .261 (2nd lowest)
wOBA: .270 (last)
There is not a lot of spread in the P/PA data: most teams are seeing about the same # of pitches per pate appearance... between 3.6 & 4.05. The Phillies, though are doing well with limiting strikeouts but they don't walk as much as they should (10% or better is the goal) and they're very unlucky - as Batting Avg. on Balls in Play (BABIP) shows. Given they're still last in weighted on-base avg. (wOBA), to help combat their low, soon-to-improve BABIP, the Phils need to walk more and continue striking out less.
Speed
SB: 10 (T-19th)
3B: 7 (T-2nd best)
Their stolen base rank seems more a function of getting on base and low no. of attempts (not shown) than their rate (not shown). Proving my point is the high no. of triples the Phillies have as I am a firm believer that 3Bs are more a function of speed than power compared to 2Bs. Look for them to steal more as their OBP improves, but I've noticed a decline in the Phillies in terms of the stolen base category: I firmly believe that's the result of another Rube blunder - not giving David Lopes the raise he deserved. Can the Phillies start stealing more bases as we get younger in the next few years? Possibly. But for now, look for their stolen base numbers to improve a bit as our OBP improves.
Power & Scoring
HR: 13 (T-2nd lowest)
ISO (isol'd power): .106 (2nd lowest)
wRC+: 68 (100 is avg) = last
Runs: 63 (lowest)
According to Sandberg earlier this spring, "The Phillies are not going to hit a lot of home runs this year." So far, the Phillies are proving that to be true. To compensate, the Phillies rank up there in bunts & bunt attempts (not shown). There's been some growing pains there, but I've seen much better from the team (especially from pitchers) over the past week-plus. Look for the offense, overall, to improve as the bats heat up (Howard, Utley, Ruiz, Asche, Ruf, "Frenchy", etc.), the on-base guys (Herrera, Revere; perhaps Galvis, Utley (again) & Ruiz (again); etc.) continue to get on and steal, and perhaps the team embraces & executes small ball well.
April was a rough month. Typical for a team full of Mr. Not-Aprils (Revere, Ruiz, Howard, Hamels). The Phillies are 8-15, on-pace for 56 wins (110 losses), which some expected. However, given the evidence above - Mr. Not-Aprils, low BABIP, improving Fdg. Pctg., great bullpen, etc.; I think the Phillies can squeeze out another win or two per month, putting a 63-99-or-better record within reach. We shall see what happens. Don't forget, we have a few prospects (Nola, Franco), DL players (Billingsley), and a recently-optioned Domonic Brown coming up within the next 1-2 months; and games are not won or lost on paper. On the flip side, Howard, Ruiz, Pap and Hamels are on the trading block, so expect some more losses if all of them are traded... although that could be offset by more wins in the case of a Howard trade.
Good luck, Phils! Looking forward to watching you guys improve!
Pitching/ Fielding
WHIP: 1.49 (T highest)
K/9: 7.29 (18th highest)
ERA: 4.28 (10th highest)
Fldg. Pctg: .978 (5th lowest)
UZR: 1.6 (13th)
Pitching FIP: 4.47 (5th highest)
Pitching HR/9: 0.95 (middle of pack)
Pitching xFIP: 4.53 (5th highest)
We need to improve our pitching and our defense, although more so the former since we've improved greatly in fielding since that home Marlins' series. We have the highest WHIP (Walks & Hits per Inning Pitched) & are getting toward the bottom third in strikeouts per 9 IP and that has led to both high ERA and FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching). Our bad defense is not a function of bad range (measured via the UZR - ultimate zone rating - stat), but making routine plays, which led to a lot of problems, but the pitchers did allow a lot of base-runners. We did ok in terms of limiting the long ball, especially after the first week, so xFIP (FIP plus HR taken into account) remains about the same ranking as FIP. April was ugly for pitching as a whole, but expect continued improvement, especially in FIP. Next, I see who's most to blame for our lack of success: starters (besides Harang) or relievers.
Pitching Splits
Rotation
WHIP: 1.42 (8th highest)
K/9: 6.78 (18th best/ 12th worst)
HR/9: 1.19 (8th highest)
FIP: 4.71 (5th highest)
xFIP: 4.49 (7th highest)
ERA: 4.97 (7th highest)
Bullpen
WHIP: 1.61 (highest)
K/9: 8.20 (middle)
HR/9: 0.50 (9th lowest)
FIP: 4.03 (13th highest)
xFIP: 4.59 (3rd highest)
ERA: 3.03 (8th lowest)
These splits could change easily every five days, with some changing daily. However, I see that the bullpen still allows a god share of base-runners, but has been better at limiting the damage through better K/9 and lower HR/9. The conclusion: our rotation needs to improve the most. Once again, the bullpen is the strength of this team.
Batting
Plate Discipline
P/PA: 3.6 (T lowest but low spread amongst MLB teams)
K-rate: 18.3% (7th best)
BB-rate: 6.7% (7th lowest)
BABIP: .261 (2nd lowest)
wOBA: .270 (last)
There is not a lot of spread in the P/PA data: most teams are seeing about the same # of pitches per pate appearance... between 3.6 & 4.05. The Phillies, though are doing well with limiting strikeouts but they don't walk as much as they should (10% or better is the goal) and they're very unlucky - as Batting Avg. on Balls in Play (BABIP) shows. Given they're still last in weighted on-base avg. (wOBA), to help combat their low, soon-to-improve BABIP, the Phils need to walk more and continue striking out less.
Speed
SB: 10 (T-19th)
3B: 7 (T-2nd best)
Their stolen base rank seems more a function of getting on base and low no. of attempts (not shown) than their rate (not shown). Proving my point is the high no. of triples the Phillies have as I am a firm believer that 3Bs are more a function of speed than power compared to 2Bs. Look for them to steal more as their OBP improves, but I've noticed a decline in the Phillies in terms of the stolen base category: I firmly believe that's the result of another Rube blunder - not giving David Lopes the raise he deserved. Can the Phillies start stealing more bases as we get younger in the next few years? Possibly. But for now, look for their stolen base numbers to improve a bit as our OBP improves.
Power & Scoring
HR: 13 (T-2nd lowest)
ISO (isol'd power): .106 (2nd lowest)
wRC+: 68 (100 is avg) = last
Runs: 63 (lowest)
According to Sandberg earlier this spring, "The Phillies are not going to hit a lot of home runs this year." So far, the Phillies are proving that to be true. To compensate, the Phillies rank up there in bunts & bunt attempts (not shown). There's been some growing pains there, but I've seen much better from the team (especially from pitchers) over the past week-plus. Look for the offense, overall, to improve as the bats heat up (Howard, Utley, Ruiz, Asche, Ruf, "Frenchy", etc.), the on-base guys (Herrera, Revere; perhaps Galvis, Utley (again) & Ruiz (again); etc.) continue to get on and steal, and perhaps the team embraces & executes small ball well.
April was a rough month. Typical for a team full of Mr. Not-Aprils (Revere, Ruiz, Howard, Hamels). The Phillies are 8-15, on-pace for 56 wins (110 losses), which some expected. However, given the evidence above - Mr. Not-Aprils, low BABIP, improving Fdg. Pctg., great bullpen, etc.; I think the Phillies can squeeze out another win or two per month, putting a 63-99-or-better record within reach. We shall see what happens. Don't forget, we have a few prospects (Nola, Franco), DL players (Billingsley), and a recently-optioned Domonic Brown coming up within the next 1-2 months; and games are not won or lost on paper. On the flip side, Howard, Ruiz, Pap and Hamels are on the trading block, so expect some more losses if all of them are traded... although that could be offset by more wins in the case of a Howard trade.
Good luck, Phils! Looking forward to watching you guys improve!
Sunday, April 26, 2015
Series Preview: Phillies at Cardinals
In a rare post, I'll provide a summary of what to expect as the Phillies travel to St. Louis for a four-game set to kick off a 10-game road trip (Miami follows, then Atlanta). The story lines:
- Hometown Kid: Ryan Howard is heating up - all 3 2015 HRs occurred in past 5 games w/ only 3 Ks in that span. He's doing a better job working counts. As we may remember, Howard generally does very well in St. Louis, where he grew up, hitting around .350 in his career there. The window to trade Howard is closing (5/9 is when his 10-and-5 rights kick in). However, if he has a 4+-HR road trip (he also kills the Braves at Turner Field), I think Rube has some leverage, especially if he offers to trade Chooch, Cole, or Pap + more cash with Ryan.
- Continue to work on fundamentals & situational hitting: This may be a tough one as they're on the road (hampers before-game work), but so far the Phillies are doing better with fundamentals - no errors since the 9-1 loss to the Marlins, bunts are down, and they continuously take pitches. Right now, their BABIP w/ RISP sits at .194 (lowest in the majors and thus unsustainable). If they can keep taking pitches and use the "see-ball-hit-ball technique", they'll have a good series.
- Rotation:
- Hamels & Buchannan improving: They continue to gradually improve with each start and I expect the same thing in this series: tomorrow & Thursday respectively.
- Severino Gonzalez' MLB debut: He will get the nod on Tuesday, filling in for O'Sullivan (left knee) and Billingsley (elbow rehab). Currently 1-1 w/ a >3.5 ERA, <1.3 WHIP, >4.5 K/9 in AAA.
- Continued success from Harang: He gets the nod. Currently 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA!
- Thursday's opposing starter?: Adam Wainwright has an Achillies injury and is likely out for the year (pending MRI results). Funny timing as they face former Achilles patient Ryan Howard. Anyway, the Cards will need to decide Wed. night.
- Hot-hitting Galvis: a 3-3 afternoon propels his AVG to .361. Nice! According to Sandberg's presser, Galvis is trying for line drives, so I expect his success to continue.
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