First Half Grades; Trade Deadline & 2nd Half Outlook

The Phillies are about ten games under .500 and about ten games back of both the division crown & wild card spots. While many of the players want to stay and think they can win at least 44 of the next 67 games in order to reach the postseason... I don't think they can. This team's inconsistent play, especially on offense, is their Achillies heel (sorry for the reference, Howard). I'm finally convinced that the Phillies are not contenders. Thus, it is time to sell off a few pieces at the deadline & spend the next two years rebuilding through trades & player development.

I say two years is a reasonable estimate for the rebuild as we'll have Hamels (prob.), Nola, Biddle, Morgan, Pettibone, Buchannan; Crawford, Hernandez, Ruf, Brown (poss.), Revere (poss.), Rollins (poss.), Utley (prob.), Asche, Franco, Rupp, Joseph, Valle (poss.), Galvis; Bastardo (poss.) Giles, Diekman, Martin, Gonzalez, and De Fratus in the majors or a half-year away from the majors at the two-year mark. Many of the prospects, so far, have either panned out or are in the "so far, so good" category. And many experts seem to agree, putting our farm system in the middle of the pack and improving. There is definitely even more room for improvement, which includes better scouting through incr. use of advanced stats (OBP, WAR, BABIP, SIERRA, (x)FIP, etc.) and getting back into the intl market (think Franco, Chooch, Bastardo, & Gonzalez).

I hope that circumstances allow for a slow & steady rebuild over the next two years... and I think they might. The big contracts dwindle at the same time that players in the minors appear to be ready to replace them: Crawford for Rollins via Galvis & Hernandez; Buchannan for Kendrick. It is my hope that Sandberg's contract is renewed in two years: he will probably have three loosing seasons to start his big league managerial career... but I think that is more on Rube than Ryne. Anyway, enough of this overview... I'm going to grade the team:

Grades:

• Offense: F+/D-
• The offense has been inconsistent throughout the year, although an occasional flash of brilliance. They're hitting .229 w/ RISP (worst since 1972) & have a .300 OBP & .362 SLG.
• Pitching: B
• Both the rotation & bullpen have improved between the 1st two quarters. The rotation has a 3.99 ERA - a bit less due to loss of Lee & lack of early-in-game run support (trying to be too perfect). The bullpen has finally come around, evidenced by its 2.74 ERA in the 2nd quarter & 9.27 K/9 ratio overall.
• Team Grade: D

Projected Final Record: 74-88 (currently on-pace for 71-91 record)

June 23rd Update: A Stellar Two Weeks

This team is showing signs of life in a very weak NL East. They went 5-2 on the road trip and have the best record in the NL East dating back two weeks. Yeah, this team is not a contender in any other division, but the difference between first & last in the NL East is 5.0 games entering Monday (the smallest margin of all divisions in MLB). So, there's a chance. Before I talk about the performance of the Phillies, I will start by predicting the NL East race.

The Mets & Marlins have certainly made things interesting, but without their No. 1 starters this year - Matt Harvey & Jose Fernandez, respectively - because of Tommy John Surgery... it's probably impossible for them to sustain their recent success. The Braves got off to a hot start this year but loosing four pitchers to injuries & an offense dominated by high-K players have finally caught up with them. The Nats have a lot of good players but, like the Phillies, haven't put it together yet. The Nats are 17-13 vs. division opponents, but .500 against everyone else. I think that they will get things going soon, but how long until that happens & will Philly or Atlanta catch up to them before hand? We shall see.

Anyway, how good have the Phillies been the past two weeks? Very good but also somewhat lucky defensively. They've been doing better fundamentally (fielding with few errors, hitting better w/ RISP, starting pitchers going deeper into games, an improved bullpen, better baserunning, etc.), but balls in play have been hit at people the last two weeks. The Cardinals' batted balls found more holes this past series, so the bad luck appears to be coming the Phillies' way in that regard. Will that trend continue? Per the Law of Averages, it probably will - for a short period anyway. Let's look at other aspects of the game... offense & pitching.

The bottom half of the order, filled mostly with inexperienced hitters was the biggest problem for the Phillies this year with the bullpen (particularly the rookies & sophomores) a close second. The young guys in the line-up and the bullpen have finally started performing, the former providing protection to the veteran-filled top half of the line-up.

The bullpen appears to have finally come around. Performing well in the middle of the year, when the games matter more, is a lot different than what these guys are used to the last two years: the spoilers' role. The relief core, over the past 14 days, have pitched to a 0.93 ERA (best in MLB in that span), a 3.8% HR/FB rate (4th lowest in MLB), a 10.86 K/9 (best in the NL & 2nd in MLB behind the Red Sox), and an 8.75 K/BB ratio (best in MLB). That's not sustainable over the 88 reg. season games remaining, but certainly a good sign. A lot of the problems stemmed from a high workload, resulting in days in which at least one player (Papelbon, in particular) was unavailable. The rest certainly appears to be helping. Deikman, about three weeks ago, attributed more rest to reaching 100 mph.

If the team can build off of this momentum and take advantage of a weak division while it can, the more likely it is that this team will get more All-Stars and that the front office will keep this team together come late-July. As I said, we won't see this level of success for much longer, but in this division, anything can happen. For now, enjoy the recent success and go Phils!

Why Four Phillies Should Play in All Star Game

Before I make the case to send four Phillies to the All-Star Game, I would like to extend my condolences to the Gwynn family on the loss of Tony to salivary gland cancer at the age of 54. Mr. Padre enjoyed a Hall of Fame career with a .338 AVG over 20 seasons, all with the San Diego Padres. He became the head coach at San Diego State University... coaching players like Steven Strasburg & his son, current Phillies reserve OF, Tony Gwynn, Jr. Rest in Peace, Mr. Padre!

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As of Monday's update, Chase Utley leads fan balloting at 2B by over 680,000 votes. He's currently in a bit of a funk, but has been one of the most consistent, if not the most consistent, hitter on the team this year. He currently holds a .303 AVG and leads all 2B in many offensive categories. If this stands, Utley would make his sixth career ASG, all starts from 2006-2010. It looks like that will happen.

Unfortunately, the Phillies' current performance is dismal and it looks like that will continue right on through to the All Star Game as every team they face between now and a week before the trade deadline has an above-.500 record (only the Pirates are under but by only one game). However, three other Phillies players are having very good years. They include closer Jonathan Papelbon, outfielder Marlon Byrd, and the newest franchise hits leader, shortstop Jimmy Rollins (congrats, man!).

Papelbon has bounced back nicely from a rough opening series in Arlington, Texas. In 25 games (25.0 IP) since the blown save on April 2nd, he is 2-0, 0.36 ERA, 15/15 in Saves, 0.80 WHIP (doesn't include three hit-batsmen), 21 Ks to 7 BB for 3:1 K/BB & 7.56 K/9.0 ratios. He has recently earned his 300th & 301st career saves and is the 2nd fastest to reach those marks. I hope he gets to celebrate that in Minnesota.

Marlon Byrd was brought in via free agency to stabilize the RF situation and he has done just that. Offensively, he is hitting a slash line of .261/.316/.470 w/ 10 HRs, 38 RBIs, and a 28.8% K/PA rate. He is on-pace for 24 HRs & 92 RBIs. Defensively, he's fielding at a .993 clip and has two OF assists. Offensively, his high K-rate (28.8% season vs. 18.6% career) is a sign that he's been playing too many consecutive games, which Sandberg acknowledged a couple of weeks ago. Still, a great season so far for him.

Jimmy Rollins definitely has been bouncing back from the worst offensive season of his career. Last year, he hit .252/.318/.348 w/ 65 R, 22 SB, 6 HR, and a .667 OPS. This year, he's hitting .249/.343/.400 and on-pace for 80-90 runs scored, 25-30 SB, 20 HRs, and his .743 OPS would equal his 2001 near-ROY campaign. What better way to celebrate taking sole possession of 1st place on the franchise hits list in a bounce-back year than an All-Star nod?

I'd also like to add that Ryan Howard is holding his own. He has a slash line of .231/.302/.401 and is on-pace for 30-31 HR & at least 105 RBIs. He's striking out in 30.9% of his PAs, which is higher than his career K-rate of 28%, but he's in-line for a bounce-back year with those numbers. Yes, we'd love for him to mash 40+ HRs & 150+ RBIs, but this production, combined with Utley & Byrd, is certainly enough from the 3-5 hitters to win games.

With performances like these, why can't the Phillies send more players to the Mid-Summer Classic? Well, the team, overall is not doing well. If I had to choose one of these players to join Utley in the festivities, it'd be Papelbon with his 301 career saves and 100% save-percentage since the Texas series.

Twenty-Game Stretch, 2014 Draft

Well, 20 games in 20 days have told me one thing: non-contenders. The Phillies have a -54 run differential and have fallen to ten games under .500. You can't win more games than you loose with that run differential and that is exactly what's happening. For me, the biggest problem with the team is the inconsistent offense, then the bullpen, which lost Mike Adams (shoulder) the other day. A lot of this falls on the shoulders of Ruben Amaro, Jr. and his poor roster decisions. Now, he was right this past off-season about one thing offensively: if healthy, the veterans will produce... and that is coming to fruition w/ Utley a near-lock to start at 2B in the All-Star Game, Howard on-pace to hit 31 HRs & 115 RBIs, and Rollins near a career high in OBP. The problem is the under-30-yr-old players, especially Dom Brown. They haven't torn the cover off the ball yet. Another problem with the offense is the bench... except for Nieves' ~.260-hitting production & Mayberry's seven pinch hits (three HRs). These guys fail at even getting on-base. Unfortunately, Amaro gave big contracts out, limiting his ability to sign players to even moderate contracts. Another problem... the minor league system. While it has improved slightly over the past few years, it still is filled with mostly busts, forcing the Phillies to select college players with 63% of their picks this year with LSU righty & former 22nd round pick (2011) Aaron Nola taken at #7.

What's next for the Phillies? Time to rebuild. See what your top prospects can do. Unfortunately, some of them are now injured.

And would David Montgomery please fire Ruben Amaro, Jr.

The Phillies will begin (on Tuesday) a stretch of 21 games in 20 days. HELP!!!

Series Review: Phillies vs. Reds

Well, why can't the Phillies hit this well in every game? Even scoring 4-5 runs per game than the 10-per-game-average this weekend would be nice! After Kendrick gave up a three-run homer in the 1st inning Friday, he settled down nicely - 6 scoreless innings and a stretch in which he retired 15 straight - but the offense gave him no runs. It was more of the same for the season: 0-8 w/ RISP & 9 LOB. And it looked like a similar story on Saturday: Cole Hamels gave up an RBI Fielder's Choice Groundout in the 1st & the offense threatened in the bottom of the 1st but failed to score the runner from third. But then came the fourth inning: six runs scored on a 2-run 2B by Cody Asche, a 2-run shot by Dom Brown, and RBI singles by Carlos Ruiz & Chase Utley. And the scoring didn't stop there: five runs scored in the 7th inning & then Cesar Hernandez hit his 1st career HR in the 8th. Cole Hamels went six scoreless innings, including an immaculate (3 Ks, 9 pitches) 3rd, after the 23-pitch first to earn his 100th career victory & first since 9/14. Congrats, Cole & Cesar! On Sunday, 1st-inning woes continued for the starters: this time it was Lee allowing the Reds' 5th and 6th 1st inning runs of the series (six runs in three first innings for an 18.00 ERA). However, there was no worrying wait for Lee... Rollins hit his 46th career lead-off HR & Nieves followed with a solo shot in the next AB. Lee went 6 scoreless innings & the offense scored six more runs (four on HRs by Byrd & Asche) to win the game and series. What a weekend!

Ryne Sandberg had a different line-up this weekend. Ben Revere was out with a stomach bug and Rollins hit lead-off for the first time this season. Revere has a .284 OBP vs. Rollins' .369 OBP in the two-hole. Sandberg wouldn't say whether Rollins would bat lead-off if Revere was in but he did say a change was needed. Revere was not only costing the team runs with the bat, but he had some rough games in center. He is doing better & should be ready to play again tomorrow (they have off today & head to Miami tonight). Another change: Asche went from batting 8th to 6th. After hitting .200/.284/.300 in April, he's hitting .333 w/ a .418 OBP, 3 HR & 5 2B in 14 May games. Brown is also producing after being moved down to 7th from batting 6th. And the catchers have moved to the two-hole after batting 7th for most of the year.

Defense had a bump in the road last few weeks, with Revere being the main culprit and Asche's three-error night also a problem. Revere's days off should give him a fresh start. And according to Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com & PhilliesNation TV, Asche responded well to a chat with Hall-of-Fame 3B Mike Schmidt.

The bullpen did well, too: 6.1 innings and one run (by Mike Adams on Sunday). I'm hopeful they also turned a corner but Sandberg is over-relying on four of the relievers & had the opportunity (by lots of off-days) to use Roberto Hernandez in there. It's time for Sandberg to make a change there by using Luis Garcia more - perhaps the 6th or 7th inning. I don't think Garcia has appeared in more than two games since his call-up from AAA!

We're 41 games (or 25%) into the season and the "it's-too-early-in-the-season" excuses are done. Let's hope the Phillies can excel in the 2nd quarter of 2014 as the margin of error narrows and the trade deadline nears. Right now, the whole team is off to a great start, but it gets tricky: 55 games in 56 days coming up! I'll have updates periodically.

Phils Slide; Now Four-Under-.500

Injury Updates:

• IF Freddy Galvis: A few days after being demoted to AAA for lackluster offense, IF Galvis sustained a broken clavicle the other day on a play at the plate. He will require major surgery to repair it and will miss 6-8 weeks at least. Cesar Hernandez had been recalled from AA Reading and has a much-improved defense.
• 1B-LF Darin Ruf (oblique): He will continue to rehab in AAA now and will be activated when his bat is hot & glove is ok. No need to rush him, especially considering what happened with Galvis.
• P Ethan Martin (shoulder): He is also rehabbing with AAA and will be in the bullpen this year.
• P Miguel Gonzalez (shoulder): He is rehabbing in extended spring games and remains on the 60-Day DL.

Standings:

1. Braves (22-16)
2. Nats (20-19) - 2.5 gms back
3. Marlins (20-20) & Mets (19-19) - 3.0 gms back
4. PHILLIES (17-21) - 5.0 gms back

Wild Card: PHILLIES are 3.5 gms back of Dodgers w/ 6 teams ahead of them.

Analysis:

The bullpen is killing this team. It looks like the Phillies need another arm there ,especially after three players were unavailable Sunday and Bastardo can't seem to get it done. This is the top area of concern for the team. Defense is starting to suffer again with Revere & Asche as the recent culprits, although the team overall has been doing a lot better than the first 14 games. Fortifying the bench is also necessary, but it'd say the bullpen is the most critical. Offense continues to do well getting on-base but struggles to hit with men on. Many players are now in the midst of slumps, but are doing better than last year. Starting pitching is solid, although the team's overall sub-.500 performance seems to be carrying a bit more weight in the minds of the starting 5. It continues to look like the Phillies are not contenders this year and will have to sell in July.

Next up: A day off tomorrow, then three vs. Reds, then a day off & three @ Miami, and then 11 games at home thru June 2.

Next entry: Looks like I'll do one after the Dodgers series (5/23-5/25).

Current Standings: Tight NL East Race as Braves Slip

NL East:

1. Nats (18-14)
2. Braves (17-14) - 0.5 gm back (lost seven straight)
3. Marlins (17-15) - 1.0 gm back
4. Mets (16-15) - 1.5 gms back
5. PHILLIES (15-15) - 2.0 gms back

NL Wild Card:

1. Rockies (20-14) - 1.5-gm advantage
2. Braves (17-14) & Dodgers (18-15)
3. Marlins (17-15) - 0.5 gm back
4. Mets (16-15) & Cards (17-16) - 1.0 gm back
5. PHILLIES (15-15) - 1.5 gms back
6. Reds (15-16) - 2.0 gms back
7. Padres (15-18) - 3.0 gms back
8. Pirates (12-20) & Cubs (11-19) - 5.5 gms back
9. D'Backs (11-24) - 8.0 gms back

AL Wild Card - a fairly tight race there, too!

1. Rangers (17-15) - 0.5-gm advantage
2. O's (15-14), Angels (16-15), & Yankees (16-15)
3. Twins & Mariners (both sitting at 15-15) - 0.5 gm back
4. White Sox (16-17) - 1.0 gm back
5. Red Sox, Rays, & Blue Jays (all are at 15-17) - 1.5 gms back
6. Royals (14-17) - 2.0 gms back
7. Indians (13-19) - 3.5 gms back
8. Astros (10-22) - 6.5 gms back

Expect my bi-weekly evaluation of the Phils on the 12th (off-day for the team).