4/27 - Good Road Record

Phillies ended their west coast road trip with a 6-4 record (1-2 vs. Rockies; 3-1 vs. Dodgers; and 2-1 vs. D'backs) to bring their overall road record to 9-7. They are now 13-12 this season - 4th in NL East (4.5 games behind Braves) and one game back of the 2nd Wild Card - and fully healthy after activating Hamels on Wed. the 23rd. Things are looking up, but they definitely showed inconsistencies this year in all facets of the game: offense, pitching & defense... although pitching & defense have improved since the 15th. They have a day off tomorrow and then play the Mets in a two-game set at home. A day off precedes three games vs. the Nats and a four-game home-and-home series with the Blue Jays. A sweep of the Mets will be key here as they are 2nd in the NL east & represent the 2nd wild card.

Other notes:

• The Phillies play 28 games from 5/2 to 6/1; 27 games 6/3 to 6/29; and 13 games from 7/1 to the All-Star Break
• The All-Star & HR Derby ballots are now available
• Injury update: Ethan Martin (shoulder) pitched to Darin Ruf (oblique) the other day.
• Ryan Howard did not hit for the cycle as Joe Torre did not approve the Phillies' request to have the 1B & E9 overturned.

4/15/14: Two Weeks In

NL East Standings:

• Atlanta Braves (9-4)
• Wash. Nationals (8-5, 1.0 GB)
• Phila. Phillies & NY Mets (6-7, 3.0 GB)
• Miami Marlins (5-9, 4.5 GB)

Phillies Injury Updates:

• P A.J. Burnett (hernia) - will undergo off-season surgery
• OF Ben Revere (sore ribs) - available to play
• IF-OF Freddy Galvis (15-Day DL, MRSA) - activated Friday
• P Mike Adams (15-Day DL, shoulder) - activated Today
• P Cole Hamels (15-Day DL, shoulder) - set to return c. 4/22 or 4/27
• OF-1B Darin Ruf (15-Day DL, oblique) - to begin baseball activities this week
• P Jon Pettibone (shoulder trouble in S.T.) - made spot start on Saturday
• P Miguel Gonzalez (60-Day DL, shoulder) - rehabbing in minors
• P Ethan Martin (15-Day DL, shoulder) - no update

Games Recap:

Defense has been horrible this year. They are tied for last in majors in fielding pctg (.972) & errors (14), and have given up 12 unearned runs in 13 games. The team was ok in spring training, so it stands to reason that the law of averages will kick in as the season goes on and as the team gets more chances. Concern: 8/10

The offense has been tremendous in areas in which the team has done poorly in past seasons. They are putting runners on at a tremendous clip yet are struggling (a bit) to score them. Stats:

• .351 OBP (1st in NL, 2nd in MLB)
• .273 AVG (3rd in NL, 5th in MLB)
• .420 SLG (6th in NL, 9th in MLB)
• .771 OPS (4th in NL, 5th in MLB)
• 2000 pitches seen (7th-most in majors & 4th-most in NL) 
• 153.8 pitches per game (140.7 last year)
• 3.88 pitches per PA (3.79 in 2013)
• 39.7 plate appearances (PA) per game (37.1 last year)
• .279 AVG w/ RISP (.252 last year)
• 4.77 RPG (3.77 in 2013)

Utley and Ruiz are a big part of the team's offensive success and Howard's slow start is probably the biggest contribution to the team's small-yet-noticeable RISP issues, but I'm not concerned about Howard given his history of terrible Aprils, especially after hitting two HRs in the past two games. As for the team... as long as they continue to get chances by putting runners on and taking pitches, they'll score runs. Concern: 4/10

The starting pitching has been troublesome (6 Quality Starts, 4.05 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 7.51 K/9, 3.69 BB/9), but the bullpen has been even worst (5.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.91 K/9, 4.28 BB/9, 1.85 K/BB, 3 BS). With bounce-back outings from a few of its guys, Adams activated and Hamels on the way, the Phillies look to improve in this area soon. Until then, it looks like high-scoring games resulting in more losses than wins will be the norm this season. Concern: 7/10

Schedule (April): 3 vs. Braves; West Coast Trip: 3 @ Rockies, 4 @ Dodgers, 3 @ D'Backs; Off on 28th; then, 2 vs. Mets at home.

Proposed April Record: 16-12 or better -AND/ OR- less than 3.0 games back. They split the Braves series (2-2), go 6-4 out west, and sweep the Mets.

Recap: Opening Day

Wow... what a slug-fest for both teams! Opening Day certainly seems to favor the offense against a team's ace, probably because managers put the "everyday line-up" out there to perform. Well, it looks like both offenses were successful, but the Phillies came out on top 14-10. Every Phillie had reached base safely and each was responsible for at least one run (either an RBI or a R scored). Here's the box score:

• Revere: 3-6, 2 R, 3 RBI, SB, K
• Rollins: 1-6, GS HR (200th career HR), 4 RBI, R, K
• 14th consecutive O.D. start at SS for same team (NL record; ties MLB record - Ripken, Jr.)
• Utley: 3-6, 2B, RBI
• Howard: 2-5, BB, R, 3 K
• Byrd: 2-6, HR, RBI, R, K
• Brown: 1-5, SB, R, K
• Ruiz: 1-3, 2 BB, 3 R
• Asche: 3-4, BB, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 4 R
• Gwynn, Jr.: 0-1, BB, R, K
• Mayberry, Jr.: 1-2, 2 RBI, 2B

Totals: 17 H, 6 BB, 8 K, 44 AB, 50 PA, 13 RBI, 14 R, 6 XBH (3 2B, 3 HR), 2 SB
Team LOB: 9
Team AVG: .386 (.412 w/ RISP)
Team OBP: .460
Team SLG: .659
Team OPS: 1.119

• Lee: W, 5 IP, 11 H, 8 R (all earned, ties career high), BB, K, HR
• Diekman: 1+ IP, H, 2 R (all earned), BB, 2 K
• Rosenberg: 0.2 IP, 2 H, BB
• Bastardo: Hold, 1.1 IP, BB
• Papelbon: 1 IP, K (not a save situation)

Totals: 40 ABA, 44 PAA, 9 IP, 10 R (all earned), 14 H, 4 BB, 4 K, HR

So, what does this mean for the rest of the season? Well, I hate to go on one game, but opening day is said to foreshadow the rest of the season (or something along those lines). So, this means that if these guys are healthy and produce, the Phillies will CERTAINLY contend throughout the year.

Next Up: Today @ 8:05 PM EDT (7:05 PM CDT) - Burnett @ Perez

Ready for 2014? Well, it's almost "do-or-die time"!

The Phillies have finished their work in Florida and are set to take on the Pirates at Citizens Bank Park today (7:05 PM) and tomorrow (1:05 PM). I encourage you to go since there are many promotions/ give-a-ways and you can preview the ballpark’s revamped menu, primarily seen at Harry the K’s. At these games, the Phillies will audition two pitchers for the role of “April’s 5^th Starter” (to commence on the 13^th) and will be #6 on the depth chart when Hamels returns between April 20 & May 10, probably in April. Before I project the roster, let’s start with the end of Spring Training.

The Phillies did poorly overall in the Spring counting wins & losses, but Spring stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially for the veterans. There was improvement at the end of camp – 2-10-2 in 1^st 14 games, 7-7-1 in last 15 – but the over-30-YO infielders, key pieces in 2014, showed little signs of improvement. What will be more telling is what happens in the first two weeks, and thanks to injuries, it’d be wise to wait until the end of the month before hitting the panic button. My thinking, however, is that the Phillies are not contenders in 2014 and will need to start unloading contracts in July, but let’s not unload too many players. I don’t want to see the Phillies join the Sixers in mediocrity.

Before I dive into the roster, there is one key component to 2014 that is different than 2013: coaching. We have a new manager in Sandberg who took Charlie Manuel’s guys and won half of their last 40 games played in 2013; now, he’s in control and doing a lot in the clubhouse and on the field (“Fundamentals!”). And he has two coaches new to the Phillies org. (John Mizerock (assist. hitting) & Bob McClure (pitching)). He also has a new tool to keep officiating in check – expanded instant replay. These factors are probably worth 3-6 “wins above replacement” (WAR - a replacement-level team wins 45-50 games) if evaluated like players. And with that said, it is time to preview the 2014 roster & an abbreviated depth chart.

Starting Line-Up (and age) – in fielding order (2-9): C Carlos Ruiz (34), 1B Ryan Howard (33), 2B Chase Utley (34), SS Jimmy Rollins (34), 3B Cody Asche (23), LF Dom Brown (25), CF Ben Revere (25), RF Marlon Byrd (35) - Avg. Age: 30.4

Starting Rotation: LHP Cliff Lee (34), RHP A.J. Burnett (37), LHP Cole Hamels (30) – DL, RHP Kyle Kendrick (28), RHP Roberto Hernandez (32) - Avg. Age: 32.2

Other Starters: Jeff Manship (invitee), Dave Buchannan (invitee), Jon Pettibone (DL), Ethan Martin (Long-Man – on DL), Miguel Gonzalez (60-Day DL), B.J. Rosenberg (Long-Man – on 40-Man), Jesse Biddle (Top Prospect), Adam Morgan (Prospect – Minor League DL)

Bullpen: RHP J. Papelbon (32, CL), LHP Antonio Bastardo (27), RHP Justin De Fratus (25), LHP Jake Deikman (26), RHP Brad Lincoln (28) - Avg. Age: 28.6 (incl. Adams)

Other Bullpen: RHP Mike Adams (34, DL), RHP Ken Giles (100-mph Prospect), RHP Phillipe Aumont, LHP Jeremy Horst, RHP Luis Garcia

Bench: C Wil Nieves (35); IF Cesar Hernandez (23); OF-1B John Mayberry, Jr. (29); OF Tony Gwynn Jr. (30) - Avg. Age: 26.5 (incl. DL & Franco)

Other Bench: IF Freddy Galvis (23, DL), LF-1B Darin Ruf (26, DL), IF Maikel Franco (20, Top Prospect); Catching Depth: Rupp, Joseph, Valle

Disabled List:

• Cole Hamels (offseason shoulder tendinitis, late April)
• Jon Pettibone (shoulder, mid-late April)
• Ethan Martin (shoulder)
• Miguel Gonzalez (shoulder, 60-Day)
• Adam Morgan (shoulder surgery, minor league 60-Day DL)
• Mike Adams (recovery from July shoulder surgery, mid-April)
• Freddy Galvis (recovery from MRSA, late April)
• Darin Ruf (oblique, mid-late April)

When Hamels, Adams, Ruf, and Galvis return, the whole team will see a boost. Hamels is our No. 1 starter; Adams was signed to be our RHP set-up man; Ruf provides the power off the bench; and Galvis provides the defense. Furthermore, Ruf can relieve Howard at 1B, and Galvis can relieve Rollins at SS later on in the season… something necessary but a task Manuel was unable/ unwilling to do.

Projected Payroll (season): $189MM – right up against the luxury tax threshold. So, it’s either stand pat (contenders) or sell (non-conteders) at the trade deadline.

My Projected W-L Record: slightly below .500 at ASG; near 81-81 (±7 wins)

Enjoy the season and go Phillies (hopefully)!

Spring Training Update: Start of Week Five

Good Monday morning to you & Happy St. Patrick's Day to those who celebrate! Here is this week's Phillies Spring Training Report and we have mostly good news to share regarding the offense & injured players. The good news does come with a few caveats, so be warned.

The Phillies have a 4-4-1 record since the win over the Astros on 3/8, but there's plenty of work to be done as the team's 5-12-2 spring record & yesterday's 5-0 shutout loss to the Pirates show. In that loss, only Brown, Byrd & Lee had solid performances. The recent success is welcome relief (pun not intended) and a lot of it can be attributed to Sandberg's tight camp. Besides ordering after-games drills, a big story last week is the riff between he and Jimmy Rollins.

After Rollins responded to a reporter's question about his & his team's poor offense this spring, Jimmy said "Who cares?" and goes onto say that Spring games don't really matter when the regular season starts. Well, that remark may have led to his benching for four games last week w/ his position at SS being filled by Galvis, who certainly seems to have the inside track to a bench job. What's notable in this case is the lack of communication between manager and shortstop... Sandberg didn't talk to Jimmy for three days. While this "bench-then-talk" approach is unusual but not uncommon, Manuel - who has benched J-Roll for lackluster efforts running to 1B - would have gone right to his players without hesitation. Sandberg is certainly showing that he won't be as lenient as Manuel, so those players better watch themselves even more so than during the 2nd half of last year.

A big story in my last post was the injuries to the starting rotation, which now includes Miguel Gonzalez... in addition to Hamels, Martin, & Pettibone. All injured players, including set-up man Mike Adams, have made nice progress last week with their throwing sessions. Unless these players have a[nother] set-back, they all seem to be headed for a return sometime in April, early May at the latest. Let's hope this doesn't change for the worst.

And one last item to mention is the start of minor league camp, with C Tommy Joseph; LHPs Jesse Biddle, Jeremy Horst & Cesar Jimenez; OFs Zach Collier & Tyson Gillies; RHP Ken Giles; and SS Andres Blanco joining Stutes, Garcia, Castro, Alther, & Dugan across the way in Carpenter Complex. Additional moves include releasing C Lou Marlson & bringing C Sebastian Valle back to major-league camp.

Well, that's all for now. Enjoy the rest of the week and I'll have another update for you circa this weekend.

Schedule of Games:

• 1:05 PM Today vs. O's - green jerseys
• 1:05 PM Wed @ Blue Jays
• 1:05 PM Thursday (Split-squad) @ Astros & vs. Blue Jays
• 1:05 PM Friday vs. Red Sox
• 1:05 PM Saturday @ Pirates
• 1:05 PM Sunday vs. Twins
• 1:05 PM Monday @ Blue Jays

Please ncatcher Tommy Joseph, LHP Jeremy Horst, and outfielders Zach Collier and Tyson Gillies while re-assigning LHP Cesar Jimenez, RHP Ken Giles, and shortstop Andres Blanco. - See more at: http://philliesnation.com/archives/2014/03/phillies-move-7-to-minor-league-camp-release-marson/#sthash.F8f29qPO.dpuf

catcher Tommy Joseph, LHP Jeremy Horst, and outfielders Zach Collier and Tyson Gillies while re-assigning LHP Cesar Jimenez, RHP Ken Giles, and shortstop Andres Blanco. - See more at: http://philliesnation.com/archives/2014/03/phillies-move-7-to-minor-league-camp-release-marson/#sthash.F8f29qPO.dpuf

catcher Tommy Joseph, LHP Jeremy Horst, and outfielders Zach Collier and Tyson Gillies while re-assigning LHP Cesar Jimenez, RHP Ken Giles, and shortstop Andres Blanco. - See more at: http://philliesnation.com/archives/2014/03/phillies-move-7-to-minor-league-camp-release-marson/#sthash.F8f29qPO.dpuf

Spring Training Report I: 1st round of cuts and bad signs

We are halfway through Spring Training and we begin with the cuts as minor league camp opens up):

• Optioned: RHPs Mike Stutes (recovery from shoulder injuries) & Luis Garcia
• Non-roster invitees: OF Leandro Castro & C Sebastian Valle
• 40-Man Roster: OFs Aaron Alther & Kelly Dugan
• Potential DL Stints: Cole Hamels (tendinitis) & Mike Adams (surgery) due to shoulder injuries

Cole suffered a set-back in his recovery from off-season tendinitis preventing him from progressing to batting practice from bullpen sessions. He will be shut down (again) for about a week and a DL stint is all but certain for the $144MM lefty. This, of course, is not welcomed news, as the starting pitching depth has depleted; however, if Cole is able to make one or two Spring Training starts (minor or major league) without further set-backs, he should be on the team in mid-April. This leaves a rotation of Lee-Burnett-Kendrick-Hernandez out of camp until 4/13, when a five-man rotation is required (typical early-season off days). Then, if Hamels can't return, it will be three non-roster invitees competing for the 5th man, unless the Phillies sign someone else. Biddle will need to play in AAA even though I'd like to see him up here. Miguel Gonzalez is not doing well in games and will open the season in the minors. Let's hope Cole is back in mid-April.

These cuts, injuries, and development notes leave the Phillies with 48 in spring training (33 from the 40-man & 15 invitees) competing for 25 active spots although there are only about 7 spots open for the taking (1 starting pitcher for 4/13, 2-4 bullpen, & 2-3 bench). Fourteen are locks to make the 25-man and another 14 or so are competing for those ~7 spots. Should be an interesting three weeks.

Things are not off to a great start as far as Spring Training records go - only 1-2 wins in 6-8 games played. Now, a loosing record in ST is not always a bad omen for the regular season, but this team can ill-afford many bad signs given their age.

Right now, let's take the wait-and-see approach: perhaps things will be much brighter toward the end of March. But, I have a feeling my off-season predictions will be revised for worse come late March.

Have a great week everyone and Go Phillies!!!

2014 Predictions

BREAKING NEWS FROM EARLIER TODAY (posted 8:50 PM Wed. 2/12): We are only a few hours from the start of Spring Training, and I have two big news items to share. Cole Hamels had minor shoulder tendinitis in Dec. and could not begin his throwing program at the normal time. Therefore, he will not be in the Opening Week rotation. The Phillies and pitcher A.J. Burnett agreed to a one-year, $16MM deal, which means that after Hamels joins the rotation, it will have one less question mark than before. A.J. Burnett makes this team at least 2-4 wins better than it was yesterday.

Original Article (edited for flow, the Burnett signing, and Hamels' injury):

Well we're less than one week away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Florida and Arizona for Spring Training, so it's time to talk about how the Phillies look as we start off 2014. The Phillies may not have improved much through off-season acquisitions (before Burnett), but it is reasonable to assume that this team can contend as it stands now, especially if A.J. Burnett signs (it's a three-team race between the Os, Pirates, and Phillies). This team is more likely to contend now that Burnett joins the rotation. This is as long as everyone stays healthy and improves as I predict below.

So, last year, this team - again - dealt with more injuries, but that happened mainly in the 2nd half. They were contenders at the All-Star Break but those injuries and (to a lesser but big extent) poor performances in the 2nd trimester led to Manuel's firing in what I feel to be one of the most class-less moves ever, especially timing-wise. However, it is reasonable to assume that everyone will improve, especially now that Sandberg may not pencil post-30-year-olds into the line-up as often as Manuel did.

So, a good place to start is the "everyday" (120+ games) players:

• 1B Ryan Howard will bounce back from two consecutive injury-plagued seasons. He looks really good right now weight-wise. Still a bit heavy, but he appears lighter than he was last spring. We'll need to platoon him with Ruf/ Mayberry, but if Howard is healthy, then it stands to reason that he can mash 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. More on him later.
• 2B Chase Utley's knees did not land him on the DL last year and he led the team with a .284 AVG. If no other body parts hurt (like his oblique did last year), he will improve just by being on the field. He is one of the few players I have seen that does a bit of everything (plate discipline, running, fielding, etc.) successfully & consistently from day-to-day (Roy Halladay was another).
• SS Jimmy Rollins had the worst offensive season of his career last year. He's entering a contract year (has an option for 2015) and Sandberg did work some magic with the former Gold Glove SS late last year. Stands to reason that Rollins can bounce back offensively.
• 3B is pretty open, but Asche is the heavy favorite to start most games there. Frandsen is on the bench and Franco is a non-roster invitee & potential Sept. call-up. It'd be interesting to see what happens if both Franco and Asche do well in camp, but because Franco spent most of last year in AA while Asche was promoted in June, the latter will probably make at least 120 starts at 3B this year.
• CF Ben Revere lost the lead-off job in mid-April but revamped his game in early May and June. He was hitting .300-plus before the ankle injury. His bat was sorely missed in July, which was probably a big factor in the "July Slide" that led to Manuel's firing.
• RF Dom Brown was worth the wait: 27 HR & 82 RBI with injuries. With him hitting 5th or 6th behind bounce-back versions of Revere, Rollins, Utley and Howard in the line-up, you get two players each potentially hitting 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.
• As far as his development is concerned, keeping him up here on the bench a few years ago was, even then but especially in retrospect, bad for Brown. I'm glad the Phillies learned from that, although sometimes it's best to keep players up here like that. Deciding which one is like finding a needle in a haystack.
• The Phillies signed Marlon Byrd to be the 3rd OF behind Brown & Revere. Byrd bounced back last year after a rough 2012 campaign that included a 50-game ban for a controlled substance. In fact, he had the best (if not one of the best) season(s) of his career in 2013. Welcome back, Bryd. Time to see what you can do!
• C Carlos Ruiz may have been signed for one year too many, but getting him back was an "at all costs" move: the best defensive catcher on the market boosted by his good bat (and right-handedness). We expect him to do as well as he did last year.

Now for the rotation, bullpen, and bench.

• The rotation has two three sure locks (Lee and Burnett - plus Hamels in mid-April), a pretty certain lock in Kyle Kendrick, and then the competition for the 5th starter (4th and 5th starters while Hamels is out) looks like Roberto Hernandez, Miguel Gonzalez, & John Pettibone. Ethan Martin is more of a long reliever, but is a better spot-starter than Raul Valdes. Jesse Biddle is in camp as a non-roster invitee and is projected as a potential late-season call-up. Adam Morgan is out until August with surgery. Signing A.J. Burnett would be welcome with that many question marks behind Lee and Hamels... although, I'd say I'm content with the rotation as it currently stands.
• The bullpen is counting on bounce-back years from Pap (execution), Adams (injury), & Bastardo (suspension). Let's hope the success of 2013's last trimester (especially w/ Diekman and De Fratus) actually does carry over into 2014.
• The bench has a few locks: C Nieves, 3B Frandsen, and OF-1B Mayberry, Jr. It stands to reason that Bobby Abreu will be the 5th OF due to needing a left-handed bat off the bench. If the Phillies go with 12 pitchers (I mentioned a five-man rotation and five of the bullpen spots), it looks like Ruf may actually get to start the year in the majors, but it may be difficult if Sandberg wants more pitchers than hitters, which would put Ruf in AAA (see Inbox).
• I'd like to see Ruf up here all year. Yes, his OF defense is suspect, which cannot be ignored, and he strikes out a lot. However, he has a great work ethic and showed that he can be an effective bench player offensively. If used in a super-platoon role (400 PAs) with most innings at 1B defensively, I think he may have a very successful season.
• As I said before, I think Ryne will rest his elder players more than Manuel, which gives the bench more reps than the last few years. Thus, I think this year's bench could turn out be a formidable one.

With bounce-back seasons from an aging core and a new manager, it is hard to argue against the fact that the floor for this team is the 73 games they won last year, especially now that Burnett signed. Their age makes them slightly more likely to be spoilers come September, but with a lot of luck, I can see them winning 84-87 games, potentially good enough to win the 2nd wild card. Good luck, guys!