Papelbon to Brewers Talks Hit Snag: Is Rube to Blame?

According to CSNPhilly.com, talks between Brewers GM Melvin and Phillies GM Amaro, Jr. regarding Papelbon have hit a snag. This is nothing new to this Phillies fan, nor should it be new to anyone else: Byrd to the Reds hit a snag but got done anyway. So, here's the latest: Papelbon is likely to waive his no-trade clause to go to a contender as he said "I didn't sign up for this", where "this" refers to loosing games. However, he has put the Brewers on his no-trade list, so he can block this trade. In order for him to waive his no-trade clause to go to Milwaukee, which is coincidentally where he said he'd be ok leaving Philly, he would probably require his $13MM option for 2016 to be picked up. So, if the Phillies send Pap over, the Brewers would be on the hook for $26MM over two years, which is expensive despite Pap's slightly-higher-than-2.0-ERA. The Phillies have proven that they will eat salary ($5MM went to the Reds in the Byrd deal), but despite that, talks with the Brewers stalled.

I have theory as to another factor that led to this stall besides Pap's salary and no-trade rights: Ruben Amaro, Jr. Yes, it's not farfetched. Most of the Phillies fan-base doesn't approve of his tenure - 96-98% disapprove last I checked. At first, it was the big moves: getting rid of Lee in December 2009 and shortly thereafter extending Howard two years before he was due to hit Free-Agency. Then, all the smaller moves added up, some bad from the start and others bad after the fact. That alone would not be a problem, nor all the contradictory statements regarding contention vs. rebuild. His accusation after the trade deadline - other GMs were not aggressive enough - cost him dearly. Rule No. 1 of negotiation: NEVER accuse or insult the other party, even when you may be correct. In Rube's case, we know that his assessment of his players was wrong.

Can he still negotiate? Yes. Can this trade still work out? Yes. But I have concluded that this process would be a whole lot smoother if Rube was not the Phillies GM. I must say: Rube & the front office have done a good job trading our veterans so far. Nice returns and very little money sent over so far.

Projecting the 2015 Roster

The full Spring Training roster is due to report in four weeks and I've completed the entries discussing last year and the off-season. With that discussed, it is time to project the Opening Day roster and depth chart.

Before I give out specific names, let's discuss numbers. Given the Phils' hitting needs, Ryne & Rube will probably go with 12 pitchers & 13 hitters - I would, if I were them. Assuming both Rule 5 picks make the roster, there are four spots open: one each for the rotation & bench and one bullpen spot. So, who will be guaranteed Phillies this year? Let's begin with the rotation.

*Rotation:

1. Lefty Cole Hamels as #1 - trade unlikely before O.D.
2. Lefty Cliff Lee as #2 - his elbow seems to have recovered
3. Righty Jerome Williams (re-signed to  1-YR deal)
4. Righty David Buchannan (sophomore season)

*Will be lefty-then-righty as the Phillies have done in recent years.

Bullpen:

9th Inning - RHR Papelbon (trade unlikely, despite Brewers' recent interest)
Late Relief - RHR Giles, LHR Diekman and RHR De Fratus
Middle Relief - LHR Andy Oliver (Rule 5 pick), LHP Mario Hollands

O.D. Line-Up (batting handedness in parentheses):

1. CF Revere (L) - hit .306 last year (inconsistent), 13 BB (needs more), 49 steals
2. C C. Ruiz (R) - adapts to any line-up spot; majority of looks this year to be in lower half of order.
3. 2B Utley (L)- getting more rest this year, possibly in 2-hole most of year
4. LF D. Ruf (R) - will get more playing time, especially against LHP
5. 1B Howard (L) - I think he'll bounce back, but definitely needs to play less vs. LHP.
6. 3B Asche (L) - Let's see if he can play nearly everyday.
7. SS Galvis (S) - Let's see how he does nearly everyday.
8. RF Brown (L) - Last chance to earn everyday job hitting-wise.

Bench:

C Cameron Rupp (righty) - destroyed base-runners in brief look last year; year-round back-up
IF-CF Cesar Hernandez (switch) - destroyed winter league
OF Grady Sizemore (L) - Re-signed to 1-YR deal
IF-OF Odubel Herrera (L) - Rule 5 pick; also tore up winter league

So, who is competing? For the rotation, the competition will include many familiar names, whom I mentioned in the Stay-or-Go mini-series. For the bullpen, considering that late relief is set, the competition will be mainly for a long man, probably one of those on that fifth starter candidate list. The bench will have a spot waiting for 3B-1B Maikel Franco, who looks to start the year in AAA and then come up in mid-late May. Until then, it's these OF competing for the final spot: Jordan Danks, Jeff Francoeur, Brian Bogusevic, and Xavier Paul.

I will soon discuss some preliminary predictions and, based in part on this Corey Seidman article, where to look for optimism. Go Phillies!

Grading the 2014 Phillies: "Stay or Go?" - Part II: Offense

The Phillies continue to try and trade some of their veterans and there is now a sense of urgency with pitchers, catchers, and injured players reporting in less than one month. Therefore, I give you part two of the “Stay or Go?” game: Offense/ Defense. We begin with catchers, starting with the primary.

Carlos Ruiz is certainly doing his part to get wins. When healthy, he plays in ~70% of the Phils’ games and does every aspect well: good rapport with pitchers, keeps balls in dirt in front of him, nabs a good chunk of base stealers, and even hits well anywhere in the line-up. You can’t ask more from a catcher. We may be slightly overpaying for him, especially with not being contenders, but he is welcomed to stay. Grade: B+/ A-.

We will discuss the back-ups to Ruiz, beginning with his primary back-up Wil Nieves. For a back-up to hit well over .200 while doing his part behind the dish is certainly a welcomed return on a one-year deal. It certainly will help further the development of Rupp, Joseph & Valle if Nieves is re-signed. Cameron Rupp may be ready to take the primary back-up role, especially with his knack for throwing out base-runners, but I don’t think he’s ready to take the lead position when Ruiz is injured. It should be interesting to watch. I have no clue who will be next to reach the majors. Tommy Joseph (AA/ AAA), Sebastian Valle (AA/ AAA), and Andrew Knapp (A) come to mind, but they’re at least 1.5 years from a call-up. So, both Nieves & Rupp get a yes to a return and combined “B” for 2014. Now, onto the rest of the line-up in defensive (3-9) order, so first basemen are next.

Ryan Howard remained on the field in 2014 after missing big chunks of 2012 & 2013 to Achillies & knee injuries, respectfully. He appeared in 153 games: 95 RBI, 23 HRs, .223 AVG, 190 Ks, .690 OPS. On the surface, 95 RBIs is ok production by one player, especially considering Howard had family issues and that it takes awhile to recover from leg injuries (per Larry Andersen).  His .288 BABIP is ok (near-avg.). So, what went wrong? His 29.3% strike-out rate and 16% RBI/ROB rates, the former of which was closer to 33% w/ RISP. Not only did he fail with the bat beyond 95 RBIs being ok, he does nothing else much right: part of his -1.1 WAR is terrible plate discipline & base-running plus novice-level defense (except he still limits errors). I predict a bounce-back year offensively for the former ROY & MVP in 2015: the family issues are resolved & he's back from injury. Ryne still should play him less (every other day consistently, pending lefty pitching) and maybe move him down. If Howard bounces back, that should up his trade value a bit for the deadlines, although his history & contract make trading him virtually impossible. Grade: "F+/D-"

What in the heck are the Phillies doing with Darin Ruf? Why is he only playing 1-3 days per week instead of 5-6 days per week? What was the whole point of benching Howard those three days? “To see what others can do” according to Sandberg, but then Rube apparently nixed that idea – we know now that he was trying to get Howard’s trade value up. It’s still frustrating! Phillies front office and coaches… you’ve seen Howard plenty now and Ruf can play both corner spots (see OF section for more on that). Please give Ruf playing opportunities. Grade: unable to determine due to injury, recovery mismanagement, and lack of playing time.

Next for evaluation are the infield bench players, Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez. Like Ruf, they fell victim to rehab mismanagement and/ or lack of playing time. With Rollins gone, Galvis looks to be the "everyday shortstop." I think he may do well as the primary shortstop (5 games per week), so do put him out there. Hernandez tore up the Winter Leagues. With that momentum plus defensive versatility (CF, 2B, 3B, SS), I welcome him to the bench. Grade: "Pass"/ "No Grade"

Come May 28^th, Chase Utley seemed well on his way to a .290 AVG with .300 seemingly within reach. Unfortunately, too much playing time wore down our only 2014 All-Star. I think, with at least one day of rest per week and sliding up to the two-hole, he can still produce for us to a .285 AVG. He definitely earned the $15MM he makes per year, especially considering he still plays the game right and the blame falls on Ryne for playing him too much. Grade: B+ (I’m hoping he stays). Now, we discuss our third basemen.

Keep in mind that Cody Asche has only been in the majors 1.5 seasons. The University of Nebraska product came into the majors with a .300 AVG in the minors over the equivalent of two full seasons. Could he have benefit from more time at AAA? Probably. Did the Phillies play him often enough after his call-up? I think so, although a bit of a mental break from time to time would help. I like Asche, especially in a platoon, but the jury’s still out on whether he can play every day or not. Grade: Pass.

Maikel Franco started the year in AAA and really started slow. But in the 2^nd half, with help from none other than Charlie Manuel, he tore it up. To use the front office’s words, the 21-year-old Venezuelan “forced” them to call him up in Sept. He played in 16 GM, made just under 60 PAs, had a .404 OPS, and only one error. Scouts say he’s better than Asche overall. Right now, he is behind Asche, which is fine for a 21-Y.O., so more time in AAA will benefit not only Franco but Asche as well (As I said, "the jury is still out on" Asche as an everyday player.). Furthermore, if Franco spends more than five weeks in AAA, his free agency time will come one year later than if he'd opened the year in the majors. However, if Franco can continue hitting at the pace from which he left off - he’s doing/ did in winter ball - I would welcome him up hear anytime, as early as Opening Day. Grade (incl. minors): Pass. Now, instead of discussing more of the Rollins trade & his replacements, we go onto the outfield.

Marlon Byrd did what was asked of him, and that was to stabilize right field offensively & defensively. He struck out a lot, but I didn’t notice it being a detriment this year. I would have loved to see him back, but in a rebuilding year, a trade was the right move. This opens up right field to Domonic Brown, his natural position in A & AA, which should (and has to) benefit him mentally. Left field is open to Ruf or  perhaps some of the utility guys (Hernandez, Asche) or, if the Phillies want to slide him over, Revere (Please do, Ryne!). Ben Revere did well offensively, considering he batted >.300 overall and stole 49 bags despite slow starts & finishes to the season and screws in his ankle. Now that he's no longer screwed up, he should be (1) more consistent despite another slow start and (2) able to more easily use his speed to stretch 1B into 2B. We have Grady Sizemore back, giving us four OFs, and to round out the MLB depth, the Phillies have five players competing for one (or two, if Howard goes) sports: Jordan Danks (off waivers from White Sox), Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera (another who tore up the winter league) and - on minor league deals - Jeff Francoeur, Brian Bogusevic & Xavier Paul. And now, the 2014 Phillies Outfielders' scores: Brown: D-/F+… 2015 will be make or break; Revere: B-; Byrd: A-; Sizemore: Pass.

With the rebuild underway, the Phillies should be competitive in 2016 and definitely by 2017. We have prospects coming up this year (Franco & Nola) and more at AA (most of our top pitching prospects plus Crawford in 2^nd half), who will come up in late 2016/ early-to-mid 2017. I agree with Gillick’s assessment of the rebuild (2017) and look forward to continued progress (not continued success) with our prospects. I said the rotation would be the rebuilding theme this year, but with Rollins & Byrd gone, it looks like I can say the offense can get started, too. Good luck in 2015, guys!

Phillies' Offseason Update

Pardon the missing second part of the “Stay or Go” entry. I’m almost done that. I have been busy with weather blogs & forecasting, ShareAviation.com posts, and music – mainly the Mummers. I have a bit more time now, so expect SGP2 soon. For now, here’s an update midway through the off-season:

The Phillies’ off-season is heating up and they have shown they are clear sellers. Rollins, Bastardo and Byrd have been traded for four pitching prospects, at least two of which look promising (i.e. a “Top 20 prospect”). Utley (10-and-5 rights), Howard ($60MM owed with declining production), Papelbon ($13MM owed plus clubhouse issues), and Hamels (4-YR/ $95MM left on contract + high asking price) are the biggest names on the trading block this year yet are difficult to trade. Rube, who should be fired but isn’t, used two picks in the Rule 5 draft for promising players and signed several aging veterans to cheap one-year deals (Harang, Sizemore, Williams, W. Rodriguez) as we continue to develop the following players: Hernandez, Biddle, Nola, Franco, Neris, Galvis, Crawford, Morgan (recovery from surgery), Gonzalez, Pettibone (surgery) and O’Sullivan... and of course, the 2014 Phillies RoYs: Buchannan, Diekman, De Fratus, Hollands, and (4th in RoY voting) Giles. Cody Asche, Ben Revere, Darin Ruf, and Domonic Brown will continue to get playing time (I hope all four will) to find out what roles they can fill down the road. I see many of these guys as five-days-per-week-players. And if you're wondering, yes... we do have players that can spell these guys.

So, this year is all about player development and if these guys develop at the pace the bullpen did last year, then we shouldn’t reach the 100-loss mark. We shall see. It all depends on (1) how smart the Phillies are with the rebuild and playing time, and (2), of course, the players’ performances.

Preliminary Prediction: 62-75 wins... I'm thinking 68 is where we'll be.

Goodbye, J-Roll

In the time that Derek Jeter was the primary shortstop for the Yankees (1996-2014), most of the 29 other MLB teams struggled to have a consistent shortstop. The Astros were the worst with 11. The Yankees' arch-rival - Red Sox - had seven after Garciaparra, but may be stable again with the emergence of Xander Bogaerts. Cleveland had three in that span. And Philadelphia also had three: Kevin Stocker (1996 & 1997), Desi Relaford (1998-2000) and finally, fifteen (14) seasons of our 2nd round (#46) pick in the 1996 MLB First-Year Player Draft, Jimmy Rollins (2001-2014; a Sept. call-up in 2000).

Rollins' 2001 campaign was awesome: 158 games, 706 plate appearances with a .274 AVG in 656 ABs (180 H), 46 SB (54 tries for 85.2% success) & 14 HRs to help generate 97 total runs scored, 54 RBIs, .275/.323/.419 slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) for a .743 OPS. Awesome numbers that led to 3rd place in ROY voting that year. He's been healthy most of the time: 150+ games in 10 seasons and 135-149 games in 3 seasons. The only major fluke: an injury-riddled 2010 in which he only played 88 games. In his 14 full seasons plus Sept. 2000, he appeared in 2,090 games and is the Phillies All-Time Hits Leader with just over 2,300 hits... 479 doubles, 111 triples, and 216 HRs. He stole 453 bases in 548 attempts (82.7% success rate, 32/year) scored 1,325 times and drove in 887 runners. His Phillies career slash line: .267/.327/.424 for a .751 OPS.

His awards as a Phillie include 2007 MVP & Silver Slugger, 4 Gold Gloves ('07-'09, '12), three All-Star appearances (2001, 2002, & 2005) & a 2009 trip to the World Baseball Classic, five NL East titles (2007-2011), two NL pennants (2008 & 2009), and, of course, the 2008 World Championship.

Off the field, Phillies fans largely loved him, but there would be controversial comments/ issues. This was especially true as he hit lots of lazy pop-ups and barely ran out some. He was a leader with not only his bat & glove, but with his mouth, boldly calling the Phillies the "Team to Beat in the NL East" in 2007.

How do we grade the Oakland native's tenure as a Phillie? Let's give him an A-. He did what he had to do to bounce back after every (rare) down year, led the Phillies in their glory years in more ways than one, stuck with them through the rough times, and said most of the right things. We wish you luck with the Dodgers (except when facing the Phils, of course... hahaha!), and thank you for the memories, J-Roll!

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News:

Cuban OF Y. Tomas: The Phillies passed on him, who signed for 4-6 years and $45.7MM-$68.5MM. This was probably a mistake in terms of the Phils' offensive future, but he's not very athletic nor has he been tested against ML-caliber pitching. We shall see how he fairs with the D'Backs.

Winter Meetings News:

1. Trades: Bastardo traded to the Pirates for a mid-level rotation prospect. Phillies continue to listen to offers for others. Rube wants to trade Howard & Papelbon; desires to upgrade the outfield by shopping Byrd (who will net a similar return to Bastardo), Revere and Brown; and now that Lester signed with the Cubs, Hamels rumors will heat up, particularly to the Dodgers & Red Sox.
2. Rotation: Cliff Lee is on-schedule with his rehab (left flexor tendon issue) & expects to be ready for Spring Training. Miguel Gonzalez, entering the 2nd year of a 3-YR/ $12MM deal signed in late-Summer 2013, hopes to audition for a back-end starter job. He appeared in the 'pen this year.
3. Sandberg is "anxious" to see how Rube & the front office execute a rebuild. He also says that he's willing to try many of his players at different positions, something he ruled out a few months ago.
4. The Meetings conclude today with the Rule 5 Draft. The Phillies expect to used BOTH of their picks in the ML round (an arrangement stemming from the Cubs' 2011 selection not playing much in 2012) and none during the minor league portion: details via PhilliesNation.com. The Phillies protected three prospects this year & lost three prospects in the minor league portion. have two open spots on the 40-man

Grading the 2014 Phillies: Stay or Go? Part I: Pitchers

Here it is: the “Stay or Go?” entry. I’m taking a long time with this, so I’ve decided to post it in two parts: Pitchers and then Players. Sorry for the delay & split, but I’m not solely a Phillies enthusiast. In this two-part mini-series, I talk about the entire 2014 Phillies roster and what the front office should do with these players if they want to contend, which may not happen until 2016 or 2017, according to Phillies' interim president Pat Gillick. Today, it’ll be the pitchers and I begin with the rotation:

Despite starting the year on the DL, Cole Hamels made 30 starts & threw 203 innings. His last 23 starts were impressive, all of them quality starts. In that span, he amassed a 1.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, but only eight (8) wins in that span. This further proves that it’s the Phillies offense that needs the most work and the win statistic is not cool. While Hamels will certainly garner trade attention this off-season, it is in the Phils’ best interest to wait for the right deal (three of the top five prospects) and not feel the need to have to trade him. His grade: A-.

Well, Cliff Lee was pitching so well in the first trimester outside opening day (2.29 ERA) before being injured, but we know that injuries are part of the game. Yes, he should have made four rehab starts, but there was no way to predict he’d go down again. Because of his injury, I cannot grade him and he is no longer a trade candidate (he’d be a half-season rental in July). He is progressing (will throw in a couple of weeks) and should be healthy and fairly productive in 2015, which (in a rebuilding year) I’ll take.

I liked the signing of A.J. Burnett. I thought he’d net us three wins, but he ultimately did not. After his first ten starts, it looked like he’d produce for us, especially considering he was powering thru a hernia. But he had no control afterward as his 4.59 overall ERA and MLB-leading 96 free passes prove. I give him a “F+/D” for 2014 and am glad he is choosing not to return.

Kyle Kendrick has proven a durable innings-eater but is inconsistent. On average, his 5.1 IP/ start and 3.30 ERA are great for a back-end starter, but there are long stretches in which he has a 4.5-or-higher ERA. And this year, the first inning gave him trouble (near-10.00-ERA). He’s relatively inexpensive (<$10MM AAV), but there are more consistent, potentially cheaper, options on the Free Agent market than K.K. Thank you for your contributions to the five-in-a-row era, K.K., but it’s time for you to go. Grade: F+/D (Tenure: C-/C)

Jerome Williams came to the Phillies off of waivers shortly after sending Hernandez (he got a “C-“ from me) to the Dodgers. He impressed right out of the gate, going undefeated in his first five starts, ended up 4-2 w/ a 2.83 ERA with the Phillies. His 2014 was not bright (the Phils were his 3^rd or 4^th team of the year) but he found a niche. I can only give him a pass and say that I approve of the 1-YR, $2.5MM deal he signed circa 10/20.

David Buchannan, a Georgia native, impressed the Phillies & fans during his 2014 rookie campaign. Again, lack of run support hurt (six wins), but his line (outside his 6/3 start vs. the Nats) is very impressive: in 19 starts, he amassed a 6-7 record, 111.2 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 5.26 K/9, 2.17 K:BB, 0.81 HR/ 9 – again this doesn’t lude 6/3 vs. the Nats. He is a sure-lock to make the 2015 rotation, especially now that Burnett isn’t returning.

Given the rotation is in a bit of flux, 2015 will be the year the Phillies rebuild their rotation, especially with Jon Pettibone, Miguel Gonzalez, Ethan Martin, Aaron Nola, Jesse Biddle, Sean O’Sullivan, and possibly Adam Morgan expected to see time with the Phils next year. I cannot grade any of them, but they provided us with innings when needed (for those who reached the majors), and some have potential to impress. Furthermore, Nola & Biddle are future aces despite Biddle’s recent struggles. If I had to give a theme for 2014, it was the rebuilding of the bullpen, which is next to be evaluated.

Looking at all the usual stats (appearances, ERA, save percentage), Jon Papelbon certainly did his part to secure wins despite a slower fastball and subsequent decreased K:BB & K/9 rates. He learned to pitch and not to throw, mentoring the young arms along the way. His season, even his tenure, will not be known by his on-field successes, but for his controversial comments, clubhouse trouble, and suspension-inducing crotch grab. After reflection, despite me believing his explanation of an ill-timed adjustment, that was the final straw: I do not want him a Phillie any longer so he can pass Jose Mesa for No. 1 on the Phillies all-time saves list. He won’t be there long (Giles), but I don’t want him there for one second! Pap was well on his way to an A-, but his post-game antics drop him to a “B+” and a “yes please” to a trade, which will be tough but do-able.

I have a lot of respect for Mike Adams after saying he felt bad/ sorry for stealing money for not playing (forgive any misquoting). Yes, you cannot help injuries and a contract is a contract, but for him to say that shows he truly cares and would be willing to forfeit that money in some way. This was one of the few signings within the past several years I liked: shows Amaro knew the ‘pen was a problem. The intent was great, but it didn’t work out, which happens. I cannot grade Adams’ season or tenure, but I will say that he’s not coming back (he’s helping evaluate talent in the Rangers’ system - no offense, Mike. Thanks for trying!

If there’s one word to describe Antonio Bastardo, “enigma” would be that word. Three quarters of the time, he is “Lights Out” on the mound. The other 25% of the time has Phils fans saying, “He’s absolutely horrible… no control, please don’t let him finish the inning.” The good news: he is a good pitcher most of the time and is now a relatively cheap veteran entering his last year of arbitration. I would like to see him packaged in a trade (he and Byrd to the Reds came up in July). As for his grade, “C-” sounds about right, maybe a hair too generous.

We now look at the rookies, beginning with Justin De Fratus. He is certainly is coming along. Except for a terrible April and July, he had a 0.79 ERA. Despite those two months, he had a 2.39 ERA overall in 54 appearances & 52 2/3 innings. He struck out 49 - almost one per inning. I think he may actually be fully developed (three years in the majors now), but the jury (I) still needs to deliberate. I am sure about this: he needs to stay on the Active Roster year-round. Grade: "B+/A-".

Our youngest lefty who only recently discovered his fastball touches 100 mph is next for review. Jake Diekman did very well this year, going 5-5 with a 3.8 ERA & 1.4 WHIP in 71 innings of work. Yes, he was put out there a bit too much. In 73 appearances, he struck out 100 batters - awesome! He has been up-and-down a lot more than De Fratus and the latter had similar struggles last year, so Diekman's still developing. He's coming along nicely, though, so I give him a "B" and a "yes" to staying with the Phillies for the long-run. Ryne, do be careful how much you use him.

And now, our most prized reliever of 2014 made probably the biggest jump to the majors I've seen: from high-A in the span of eight months (Fall/ Winter leagues, camp, AA for a month, and then AAA for a few weeks). Ken Giles found a niche here with his slider - 60% of his Ks were on that pitch. It wasn’t perfect in the minors, but it somehow “just clicked when [he] got up here." The stats are incredible... the Arizona native won the battle between hitter and pitcher almost every time out: 3-1 record in 44 games (46 IP) helped along by a 1.18 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and a staggering 12.75 K/9! Despite being called up late in the season (that was fine) & not put out there fast enough (not cool, Ryne), he was one of four rookies to receive votes for the NL R.O.Y. title - impressive for a non-closer. No doubt he will be our set-up man in 2015 and first-choice as closer when the role opens. Grade: "A".

We end the relief core with the cups of coffee. We begin with C. Jimenez and L. Garcia. Both had success in the minors (Garcia was the Owens award winner) but could not carry it over to the majors… the so-called “Quadruple-A players.” Hector Neris had a nice debut, recording his first career win & strikeout in his first appearance. I hope to see him more often. Finally, Phillipe Aumont is still proving that the Cliff-Lee-to-Seattle trade was terrible whether with or without the benefit of hindsight. The front office continues to gibe him chances to find his niche and he has failed each time, which paved the way for Ken Giles. Ruben, please release Aumont!

I’m hopeful that Jimenez, Garcia, and Neris will find their niche in 2015. I hope that occurs because we need a few more relievers, even if we’re not contenders. It is always possible at least one of our young relievers will be injured and we may see our veterans go in a trade. For the long term, at least, our bullpen is set with the core of Giles, Diekman, & De Fratus. The rotation, as I said earlier, is redeveloping in 2015 and may continue into 2016. The hitters won't be in flux until late next year, which is one of the reasons I agree with Pat Gillick's prediction of 2017 for contending. For further details on that, look for the hitters entry in the coming weeks. First, I have to discuss a few news items that came up in the past two months, especially past few weeks (Tomas, 40-Man, Offseason Plan, etc.).

The High & Low Moments of 2014

We begin our review of the 2014 Phillies with the highest and lowest moments of the season.

We begin on Opening Day, which was mostly a nice affair: Rollins' 14th consecutive O.D. start for the same team tied him with Cal Ripken, Jr. and he celebrated that feat with a 2nd-inning Grand Slam for his 200th career HR. The rest of the game was a slugfest between the Phillies and Rangers. The Phillies won 14-11 with Lee getting the W despite giving up eight (8) runs (a rare feat in MLB). It's long been said that Opening Day symbolizes the season. In the Phils' case, it symbolized what would have happened had the offense been more consistent.

We continue the story with a contributing factor to the 2014 performance: injuries. The Phils started the year without their best bench bat (Darin Ruf), best bench glove (Freddy Galvis), and homegrown ace (Cole Hamels). The injuries to Ruf & Galvis, then hastily activating them, gave Sandberg little confidence in his bench, even for one game per week, so he used the veterans excessively. Except for Byrd & Rollins, they didn't perform consistently enough, resulting in consecutive 73-win seasons.

As for Rollins, he certainly bounced back from a career low offensive season in 2013. Another top moment this year surrounds Rollins: passing Hall-of-Famer Mike Schmidt for the franchise hits record. It's likely that Rollins will eventually end up in Cooperstown with his credentials: he has a 3rd-place ROY finish, MVP, World Series Ring, 15 (going on 16) years in the majors w/ few down years, four Gold Gloves playing an elite position, lots of speed, and 200 HRs (nearly 50 of which are lead-off homers). A strained hamstring & mediocre team ended his season early, but he certainly had a great year and will be ready for O.D. - April 6th, 2015 vs. the Red Sox.

There was another veteran who looked well on his way to a .295 batting average: Chase Utley. For the first two months, he tore it up, hitting .320/.384/.527 for a .901 OPS with an RBI every other game, four HRs, and on pace for the NL lead in 2B. He earned his first All-Star nod since 2010. In that game, it was vintage Chase: an RBI 2B in his first PA, scored a run, and then was hit by a pitch in his 2nd PA (he averages ~17/year). After that, it was bad news for the star second-baseman: from July 1 on, he hit .243/.323/.350 for a .593 OPS, with an RBI every 2-3 games. Sandberg & his predecessor, Charlie Manuel, both admit wanting to limit Utley to ~130 games but never have. Utley is still productive because he takes pitches: do move him up in the order, Ryne.

We fast forward from the All-Star game to Alumni Weekend to celebrate the legacy of the winningest manager in Franchise History: Charlie Manuel at his Wall of Fame Induction Ceremony. His legacy is awesome, overseeing a storied time for the Phillies: five consecutive NL East Titles, two NL Pennants, a World Championship, a franchise-record 102-win season in 2011, a perfect game, playoff no-hitter, 1000 career wins (780 for the Phillies), and managing the first NL team to win the All-Star game (2010) in 14 years. It doesn't get much better than that, except a second world title. Yes, his tenure ended with mismanagement of veterans, leading to an undeservedly early firing, but his tenure is still awesome! Thank you for the memories, Chuck! You were Philadelphia!

We go from celebration back to disappointment with a game that symbolized everything that went wrong with the Phillies last year: the first Phillies offense in ~40 years to be no-hit. You always have to give the opposing pitcher credit. In this case, it was the Dodgers' Josh Beckett on 5/25. However, it's no secret to anyone that the Phillies' steady decline since 2008 is due to a declining offense. It still takes a lot to no hit any team, even one with mediocre offense. The stage was set for a terrible year, but the Phillies were not down yet.

The stretch of games between June 20th & July 6th put the Phillies out of contention. This 3-win, 16-game stretch dropped them 8.5 games in the standings, a hole too deep to climb out. Not much more went right after the All-Star break for the team. Besides Buchannan emerging as a solid no. 4 (6-7 rec., 3.40 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 5.26 K/9, 2.17 K/BB, 0.81 HR/9 in 19 of his 20 starts), the only Phillies to have success were Hamels, Byrd, Ruiz, and the Phillies bullpen.

There is one game that symbolized almost everything that went right in 2014. It was the last game the Phillies played with a 25-man roster. On Sept. 1st, four Phillies pitchers that had successful 2014 campaigns - Hamels, Diekman, Giles, & Papelbon - combined for a no-hitter. Byrd, brought in to stabilize right field this year, saved an eventual 7-0 victory with a diving catch in right field in the 3rd with two runners on. Ruiz caught the entire game for his third career no-no behind the dish (Varitek caught four in his career). It was an awesome moment in a down year, and the top moment in 2014.

Let's end it on a high note. My next entry will be the "Stay or Go?" game in which I grade individuals on the 2014 season (either A thru F or Pass/Fail). See you then.