Prospect News

On Aug. 7th, the Phillies sent Roberto Hernandez to the Dodgers for two players (A-level prospect) to be named later in a waiver trade. The Dodgers gave the Phillies a list of players to scout and the Phillies chose their first of two prospects: IF Jesmuel Valenti. He was (at the time of his selection) the Dodgers' 13th-best prospect. He plays primarily 2B but also SS and will report to Clearwater (the Phillies high-A affiliate). Amaro indicated that Valenti will play primarily 2B, but I think he should be made into a utility guy (1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF) given that he may be blocked at 2B by Utley's contract potentially vesting thru 2017.

Amaro also indicated that more waiver deals are possible.

Other prospect news:

• Biddle returned to AA mound Sat. but exits with strained quad... final line: L, 3.2 IP, 2 R...
• Phillies release IronPigs P Jo-Jo Reyes (1-3, 10.45 ERA).
• Dugan & Franco tearing up minors lately, may earn Sept. call-up.

Giants' series results: lost series 2-1.

1. 5-3 comeback win in 10 innings
2. Errors, ineffective pitching lead to Giants' come-from-behind, 6-5 victory
3. Phillies score first, but Buchannan can't hold lead. Score: 5-2 Giants.

Phillies go 1-4 on CA trip; face Mariners at CBP. Pitching Match-ups:

1. 7 PM 8/18: Elias vs. Williams
2. 7 PM 8/19: Iwakuma vs. Burnett
3. 1 PM 8/20: Paxton vs. Hamels

Low Team Slugging Pctg Not Entirely Players' Fault

I've been playing around with the offensive stats from this and years past. I had a thought one day that this year's cool temps were a factor in the team's low slugging percentage and looked back as far as 2008 for context. The Phillies' offense has declined over the years, evidenced by scoring less & less runs and going shallower into the postseason each year since the Championship Parade despite good pitching. However, as a meteorologist, I knew the cool weather is affecting most of the nation, so I looked at team slugging stats. Here are the highest team slugging percentages per season since 2008, ranked from lowest to highest:

1. 2014 (.441)
2. 2013 (.446)
3. 2012 (.453)
4. 2010 (.454)
5. 2011 (.461)
6. 2008 (.462)
7. 2009 (.478)

2014 is the lowest over the past 7 years. This summer has been cool. I won't get too deep into the meteorological aspects, but take this "stat": Philadelphia has only had about seven days with highs at or above 90°, well below avg. Now, we know that pitching has been stellar over the past years, so you cannot blame just cool weather, but many hitting experts & managers (Charlie Manuel was one) call the summer months "hitting season," which is made true by the fact that air density is inversely proportional to temperature, so as temp. incr., air density decreases and balls fly further as a result. So, with lower temps this summer, the air density hasn't decreased much over the past few months, which is not much help to hitters trying to get those doubles & homers.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As for the Phillies' batting woes, it's hard to blame the weather & good pitching. Given the low slugging pctgs. league-wide, it's not a big problem that the team can't score runs via homers & doubles. The major issue is the lack of hitting w/ runners in scoring position (RISP). Their .243 batting average w/ RISP is 20th in the majors & 9th in the NL. I looked at IBBs, K-rate & BABIP (Batting Avg. on Balls In Play), to gauge whether this is due to lack of skill or bad luck. The team's .285 BABIP w/ RISP is a little low (usually the league avg. each year is .290-.300) but not excessive. The team's 21.6% K-rate  w/ RISP is 3rd-highest in the NL, and that's why this team is not driving in runs. They lack the skill to put balls in play.

Here's something interesting. The team (in RISP situations) is ranked 4th w/ 34 batters walked intentionally, with Chase Utley's (3rd in the batting order) 9 IBB ranked 10th in MLB. Ryan Howard's (batting 4th in the order) 28.8% K-rate w/ RISP is the 8th highest rate in MLB. So, this strategy of walking Utley to face Howard is working well for teams. It didn't pay off for the Astros, but it has worked well before that. It's clear that Howard, unless he's on a tear/ roll, should be placed further down in the lineups from now on.

That's all for now. Tonight, the Phillies take on the Giants at 10:15 PM ET (7:15 PM PT) with Hamels (6-6, 2.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.99 K/9) facing Bumgarner (12-9, 3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.78 K/9).

Phillies Trade News

The Phillies did nothing in late July despite clearly being sellers & having pretty much every player on the active roster up for grabs. The Phillies had opportunities but lucrative contracts with vesting options & limited no-trade clauses (NTC), five-and-ten-rights, and a high asking price that Amaro (RAJ) would not lower; precluded deals from happening. He blamed other teams but need only look in a mirror to see who to blame.

Why do I say that? Why is he to blame? Well, with rumors this specific, opportunity certainly knocked, but RAJ did not bite:

• The Reds had interest in both Byrd & Bastardo. The only thing blocking a trade is money-to-include vs. prospects (Byrd owed $11MM not including option and Bastardo was set to make up to $5MM thru 2015 (last year of arbitration)). This package could have net the Phillies two prospects, one of which could’ve been in AA. Amaro didn’t bite, probably because he wouldn’t send over enough cash.
• Hernandez, Pap, Burnett & Kendrick drew interest but Amaro asked for one major-league-ready prospect. That price was too high for these players: Hernandez & KK are half-year rentals; Pap is overpriced at $13MM/yr; and Burnett is a ? next year with that sliding player option. Even if RAJ agreed to pay the whole contract, he still would only net an A-level prospect for each. At least he redeemed himself with Thursday’s Hernandez-to-Dodgers trade for two low-level prospects.
• Player performances and injuries played a role in RAJ trying to shop these next guys: Revere, Brown, Lee, & Howard. Revere & Brown are cheap & weren’t as actively shopped as many others but Rube was willing to listen to the initial offer. There was hardly any interest from teams because Brown was struggling offensively & Revere is, at best, a two-tool OF (singles & diving catches). Howard’s $60MM ($25MM in 2015-6 & $10MM buyout for 2017) was unmovable given his post 2009 struggles. And Lee was the Phillies’ best trade chip until the elbow injury (he won’t return this season as of the Aug. 6 update).
• And finally came Cole Hamels. He drew interest from the Dodgers & Red Sox in July and was claimed by the Cubs this week before being pulled back due to no trade agreement. The asking price was three top prospects. While it is a high price for a $100MM-in-the-2^nd-half-of-his-prime ace southpaw, especially mid-season, I do think RAJ was in the right to ask for top prospects… perhaps maybe not a team’s top guys, but maybe the top lefty starting pitching prospect and 2^nd-best IF & OF prospects. I personally would like to see the team rebuild around Hamels & Utley (he & Rollins also drew interest but weren’t willing to waive their 10-&-5 rights): The Bridge to the Next Era of Phillies Baseball.

So, Amaro squandered trade opportunities because he was set on getting major-league-ready players for aging veterans & rental players. Sounds like the Phillies need a new GM.

First Half Grades; Trade Deadline & 2nd Half Outlook

The Phillies are about ten games under .500 and about ten games back of both the division crown & wild card spots. While many of the players want to stay and think they can win at least 44 of the next 67 games in order to reach the postseason... I don't think they can. This team's inconsistent play, especially on offense, is their Achillies heel (sorry for the reference, Howard). I'm finally convinced that the Phillies are not contenders. Thus, it is time to sell off a few pieces at the deadline & spend the next two years rebuilding through trades & player development.

I say two years is a reasonable estimate for the rebuild as we'll have Hamels (prob.), Nola, Biddle, Morgan, Pettibone, Buchannan; Crawford, Hernandez, Ruf, Brown (poss.), Revere (poss.), Rollins (poss.), Utley (prob.), Asche, Franco, Rupp, Joseph, Valle (poss.), Galvis; Bastardo (poss.) Giles, Diekman, Martin, Gonzalez, and De Fratus in the majors or a half-year away from the majors at the two-year mark. Many of the prospects, so far, have either panned out or are in the "so far, so good" category. And many experts seem to agree, putting our farm system in the middle of the pack and improving. There is definitely even more room for improvement, which includes better scouting through incr. use of advanced stats (OBP, WAR, BABIP, SIERRA, (x)FIP, etc.) and getting back into the intl market (think Franco, Chooch, Bastardo, & Gonzalez).

I hope that circumstances allow for a slow & steady rebuild over the next two years... and I think they might. The big contracts dwindle at the same time that players in the minors appear to be ready to replace them: Crawford for Rollins via Galvis & Hernandez; Buchannan for Kendrick. It is my hope that Sandberg's contract is renewed in two years: he will probably have three loosing seasons to start his big league managerial career... but I think that is more on Rube than Ryne. Anyway, enough of this overview... I'm going to grade the team:

Grades:

• Offense: F+/D-
• The offense has been inconsistent throughout the year, although an occasional flash of brilliance. They're hitting .229 w/ RISP (worst since 1972) & have a .300 OBP & .362 SLG.
• Pitching: B
• Both the rotation & bullpen have improved between the 1st two quarters. The rotation has a 3.99 ERA - a bit less due to loss of Lee & lack of early-in-game run support (trying to be too perfect). The bullpen has finally come around, evidenced by its 2.74 ERA in the 2nd quarter & 9.27 K/9 ratio overall.
• Team Grade: D

Projected Final Record: 74-88 (currently on-pace for 71-91 record)

June 23rd Update: A Stellar Two Weeks

This team is showing signs of life in a very weak NL East. They went 5-2 on the road trip and have the best record in the NL East dating back two weeks. Yeah, this team is not a contender in any other division, but the difference between first & last in the NL East is 5.0 games entering Monday (the smallest margin of all divisions in MLB). So, there's a chance. Before I talk about the performance of the Phillies, I will start by predicting the NL East race.

The Mets & Marlins have certainly made things interesting, but without their No. 1 starters this year - Matt Harvey & Jose Fernandez, respectively - because of Tommy John Surgery... it's probably impossible for them to sustain their recent success. The Braves got off to a hot start this year but loosing four pitchers to injuries & an offense dominated by high-K players have finally caught up with them. The Nats have a lot of good players but, like the Phillies, haven't put it together yet. The Nats are 17-13 vs. division opponents, but .500 against everyone else. I think that they will get things going soon, but how long until that happens & will Philly or Atlanta catch up to them before hand? We shall see.

Anyway, how good have the Phillies been the past two weeks? Very good but also somewhat lucky defensively. They've been doing better fundamentally (fielding with few errors, hitting better w/ RISP, starting pitchers going deeper into games, an improved bullpen, better baserunning, etc.), but balls in play have been hit at people the last two weeks. The Cardinals' batted balls found more holes this past series, so the bad luck appears to be coming the Phillies' way in that regard. Will that trend continue? Per the Law of Averages, it probably will - for a short period anyway. Let's look at other aspects of the game... offense & pitching.

The bottom half of the order, filled mostly with inexperienced hitters was the biggest problem for the Phillies this year with the bullpen (particularly the rookies & sophomores) a close second. The young guys in the line-up and the bullpen have finally started performing, the former providing protection to the veteran-filled top half of the line-up.

The bullpen appears to have finally come around. Performing well in the middle of the year, when the games matter more, is a lot different than what these guys are used to the last two years: the spoilers' role. The relief core, over the past 14 days, have pitched to a 0.93 ERA (best in MLB in that span), a 3.8% HR/FB rate (4th lowest in MLB), a 10.86 K/9 (best in the NL & 2nd in MLB behind the Red Sox), and an 8.75 K/BB ratio (best in MLB). That's not sustainable over the 88 reg. season games remaining, but certainly a good sign. A lot of the problems stemmed from a high workload, resulting in days in which at least one player (Papelbon, in particular) was unavailable. The rest certainly appears to be helping. Deikman, about three weeks ago, attributed more rest to reaching 100 mph.

If the team can build off of this momentum and take advantage of a weak division while it can, the more likely it is that this team will get more All-Stars and that the front office will keep this team together come late-July. As I said, we won't see this level of success for much longer, but in this division, anything can happen. For now, enjoy the recent success and go Phils!

Why Four Phillies Should Play in All Star Game

Before I make the case to send four Phillies to the All-Star Game, I would like to extend my condolences to the Gwynn family on the loss of Tony to salivary gland cancer at the age of 54. Mr. Padre enjoyed a Hall of Fame career with a .338 AVG over 20 seasons, all with the San Diego Padres. He became the head coach at San Diego State University... coaching players like Steven Strasburg & his son, current Phillies reserve OF, Tony Gwynn, Jr. Rest in Peace, Mr. Padre!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As of Monday's update, Chase Utley leads fan balloting at 2B by over 680,000 votes. He's currently in a bit of a funk, but has been one of the most consistent, if not the most consistent, hitter on the team this year. He currently holds a .303 AVG and leads all 2B in many offensive categories. If this stands, Utley would make his sixth career ASG, all starts from 2006-2010. It looks like that will happen.

Unfortunately, the Phillies' current performance is dismal and it looks like that will continue right on through to the All Star Game as every team they face between now and a week before the trade deadline has an above-.500 record (only the Pirates are under but by only one game). However, three other Phillies players are having very good years. They include closer Jonathan Papelbon, outfielder Marlon Byrd, and the newest franchise hits leader, shortstop Jimmy Rollins (congrats, man!).

Papelbon has bounced back nicely from a rough opening series in Arlington, Texas. In 25 games (25.0 IP) since the blown save on April 2nd, he is 2-0, 0.36 ERA, 15/15 in Saves, 0.80 WHIP (doesn't include three hit-batsmen), 21 Ks to 7 BB for 3:1 K/BB & 7.56 K/9.0 ratios. He has recently earned his 300th & 301st career saves and is the 2nd fastest to reach those marks. I hope he gets to celebrate that in Minnesota.

Marlon Byrd was brought in via free agency to stabilize the RF situation and he has done just that. Offensively, he is hitting a slash line of .261/.316/.470 w/ 10 HRs, 38 RBIs, and a 28.8% K/PA rate. He is on-pace for 24 HRs & 92 RBIs. Defensively, he's fielding at a .993 clip and has two OF assists. Offensively, his high K-rate (28.8% season vs. 18.6% career) is a sign that he's been playing too many consecutive games, which Sandberg acknowledged a couple of weeks ago. Still, a great season so far for him.

Jimmy Rollins definitely has been bouncing back from the worst offensive season of his career. Last year, he hit .252/.318/.348 w/ 65 R, 22 SB, 6 HR, and a .667 OPS. This year, he's hitting .249/.343/.400 and on-pace for 80-90 runs scored, 25-30 SB, 20 HRs, and his .743 OPS would equal his 2001 near-ROY campaign. What better way to celebrate taking sole possession of 1st place on the franchise hits list in a bounce-back year than an All-Star nod?

I'd also like to add that Ryan Howard is holding his own. He has a slash line of .231/.302/.401 and is on-pace for 30-31 HR & at least 105 RBIs. He's striking out in 30.9% of his PAs, which is higher than his career K-rate of 28%, but he's in-line for a bounce-back year with those numbers. Yes, we'd love for him to mash 40+ HRs & 150+ RBIs, but this production, combined with Utley & Byrd, is certainly enough from the 3-5 hitters to win games.

With performances like these, why can't the Phillies send more players to the Mid-Summer Classic? Well, the team, overall is not doing well. If I had to choose one of these players to join Utley in the festivities, it'd be Papelbon with his 301 career saves and 100% save-percentage since the Texas series.

Twenty-Game Stretch, 2014 Draft

Well, 20 games in 20 days have told me one thing: non-contenders. The Phillies have a -54 run differential and have fallen to ten games under .500. You can't win more games than you loose with that run differential and that is exactly what's happening. For me, the biggest problem with the team is the inconsistent offense, then the bullpen, which lost Mike Adams (shoulder) the other day. A lot of this falls on the shoulders of Ruben Amaro, Jr. and his poor roster decisions. Now, he was right this past off-season about one thing offensively: if healthy, the veterans will produce... and that is coming to fruition w/ Utley a near-lock to start at 2B in the All-Star Game, Howard on-pace to hit 31 HRs & 115 RBIs, and Rollins near a career high in OBP. The problem is the under-30-yr-old players, especially Dom Brown. They haven't torn the cover off the ball yet. Another problem with the offense is the bench... except for Nieves' ~.260-hitting production & Mayberry's seven pinch hits (three HRs). These guys fail at even getting on-base. Unfortunately, Amaro gave big contracts out, limiting his ability to sign players to even moderate contracts. Another problem... the minor league system. While it has improved slightly over the past few years, it still is filled with mostly busts, forcing the Phillies to select college players with 63% of their picks this year with LSU righty & former 22nd round pick (2011) Aaron Nola taken at #7.

What's next for the Phillies? Time to rebuild. See what your top prospects can do. Unfortunately, some of them are now injured.

And would David Montgomery please fire Ruben Amaro, Jr.

The Phillies will begin (on Tuesday) a stretch of 21 games in 20 days. HELP!!!