Well, 20 games in 20 days have told me one thing: non-contenders. The Phillies have a -54 run differential and have fallen to ten games under .500. You can't win more games than you loose with that run differential and that is exactly what's happening. For me, the biggest problem with the team is the inconsistent offense, then the bullpen, which lost Mike Adams (shoulder) the other day. A lot of this falls on the shoulders of Ruben Amaro, Jr. and his poor roster decisions. Now, he was right this past off-season about one thing offensively: if healthy, the veterans will produce... and that is coming to fruition w/ Utley a near-lock to start at 2B in the All-Star Game, Howard on-pace to hit 31 HRs & 115 RBIs, and Rollins near a career high in OBP. The problem is the under-30-yr-old players, especially Dom Brown. They haven't torn the cover off the ball yet. Another problem with the offense is the bench... except for Nieves' ~.260-hitting production & Mayberry's seven pinch hits (three HRs). These guys fail at even getting on-base. Unfortunately, Amaro gave big contracts out, limiting his ability to sign players to even moderate contracts. Another problem... the minor league system. While it has improved slightly over the past few years, it still is filled with mostly busts, forcing the Phillies to select college players with 63% of their picks this year with LSU righty & former 22nd round pick (2011) Aaron Nola taken at #7.
What's next for the Phillies? Time to rebuild. See what your top prospects can do. Unfortunately, some of them are now injured.
And would David Montgomery please fire Ruben Amaro, Jr.
The Phillies will begin (on Tuesday) a stretch of 21 games in 20 days. HELP!!!
Monday, June 9, 2014
Monday, May 19, 2014
Series Review: Phillies vs. Reds
Well, why can't the Phillies hit this well in every game? Even scoring 4-5 runs per game than the 10-per-game-average this weekend would be nice! After Kendrick gave up a three-run homer in the 1st inning Friday, he settled down nicely - 6 scoreless innings and a stretch in which he retired 15 straight - but the offense gave him no runs. It was more of the same for the season: 0-8 w/ RISP & 9 LOB. And it looked like a similar story on Saturday: Cole Hamels gave up an RBI Fielder's Choice Groundout in the 1st & the offense threatened in the bottom of the 1st but failed to score the runner from third. But then came the fourth inning: six runs scored on a 2-run 2B by Cody Asche, a 2-run shot by Dom Brown, and RBI singles by Carlos Ruiz & Chase Utley. And the scoring didn't stop there: five runs scored in the 7th inning & then Cesar Hernandez hit his 1st career HR in the 8th. Cole Hamels went six scoreless innings, including an immaculate (3 Ks, 9 pitches) 3rd, after the 23-pitch first to earn his 100th career victory & first since 9/14. Congrats, Cole & Cesar! On Sunday, 1st-inning woes continued for the starters: this time it was Lee allowing the Reds' 5th and 6th 1st inning runs of the series (six runs in three first innings for an 18.00 ERA). However, there was no worrying wait for Lee... Rollins hit his 46th career lead-off HR & Nieves followed with a solo shot in the next AB. Lee went 6 scoreless innings & the offense scored six more runs (four on HRs by Byrd & Asche) to win the game and series. What a weekend!
Ryne Sandberg had a different line-up this weekend. Ben Revere was out with a stomach bug and Rollins hit lead-off for the first time this season. Revere has a .284 OBP vs. Rollins' .369 OBP in the two-hole. Sandberg wouldn't say whether Rollins would bat lead-off if Revere was in but he did say a change was needed. Revere was not only costing the team runs with the bat, but he had some rough games in center. He is doing better & should be ready to play again tomorrow (they have off today & head to Miami tonight). Another change: Asche went from batting 8th to 6th. After hitting .200/.284/.300 in April, he's hitting .333 w/ a .418 OBP, 3 HR & 5 2B in 14 May games. Brown is also producing after being moved down to 7th from batting 6th. And the catchers have moved to the two-hole after batting 7th for most of the year.
Defense had a bump in the road last few weeks, with Revere being the main culprit and Asche's three-error night also a problem. Revere's days off should give him a fresh start. And according to Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com & PhilliesNation TV, Asche responded well to a chat with Hall-of-Fame 3B Mike Schmidt.
The bullpen did well, too: 6.1 innings and one run (by Mike Adams on Sunday). I'm hopeful they also turned a corner but Sandberg is over-relying on four of the relievers & had the opportunity (by lots of off-days) to use Roberto Hernandez in there. It's time for Sandberg to make a change there by using Luis Garcia more - perhaps the 6th or 7th inning. I don't think Garcia has appeared in more than two games since his call-up from AAA!
We're 41 games (or 25%) into the season and the "it's-too-early-in-the-season" excuses are done. Let's hope the Phillies can excel in the 2nd quarter of 2014 as the margin of error narrows and the trade deadline nears. Right now, the whole team is off to a great start, but it gets tricky: 55 games in 56 days coming up! I'll have updates periodically.
Ryne Sandberg had a different line-up this weekend. Ben Revere was out with a stomach bug and Rollins hit lead-off for the first time this season. Revere has a .284 OBP vs. Rollins' .369 OBP in the two-hole. Sandberg wouldn't say whether Rollins would bat lead-off if Revere was in but he did say a change was needed. Revere was not only costing the team runs with the bat, but he had some rough games in center. He is doing better & should be ready to play again tomorrow (they have off today & head to Miami tonight). Another change: Asche went from batting 8th to 6th. After hitting .200/.284/.300 in April, he's hitting .333 w/ a .418 OBP, 3 HR & 5 2B in 14 May games. Brown is also producing after being moved down to 7th from batting 6th. And the catchers have moved to the two-hole after batting 7th for most of the year.
Defense had a bump in the road last few weeks, with Revere being the main culprit and Asche's three-error night also a problem. Revere's days off should give him a fresh start. And according to Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com & PhilliesNation TV, Asche responded well to a chat with Hall-of-Fame 3B Mike Schmidt.
The bullpen did well, too: 6.1 innings and one run (by Mike Adams on Sunday). I'm hopeful they also turned a corner but Sandberg is over-relying on four of the relievers & had the opportunity (by lots of off-days) to use Roberto Hernandez in there. It's time for Sandberg to make a change there by using Luis Garcia more - perhaps the 6th or 7th inning. I don't think Garcia has appeared in more than two games since his call-up from AAA!
We're 41 games (or 25%) into the season and the "it's-too-early-in-the-season" excuses are done. Let's hope the Phillies can excel in the 2nd quarter of 2014 as the margin of error narrows and the trade deadline nears. Right now, the whole team is off to a great start, but it gets tricky: 55 games in 56 days coming up! I'll have updates periodically.
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Phils Slide; Now Four-Under-.500
Injury Updates:
Analysis:
The bullpen is killing this team. It looks like the Phillies need another arm there ,especially after three players were unavailable Sunday and Bastardo can't seem to get it done. This is the top area of concern for the team. Defense is starting to suffer again with Revere & Asche as the recent culprits, although the team overall has been doing a lot better than the first 14 games. Fortifying the bench is also necessary, but it'd say the bullpen is the most critical. Offense continues to do well getting on-base but struggles to hit with men on. Many players are now in the midst of slumps, but are doing better than last year. Starting pitching is solid, although the team's overall sub-.500 performance seems to be carrying a bit more weight in the minds of the starting 5. It continues to look like the Phillies are not contenders this year and will have to sell in July.
Next up: A day off tomorrow, then three vs. Reds, then a day off & three @ Miami, and then 11 games at home thru June 2.
Next entry: Looks like I'll do one after the Dodgers series (5/23-5/25).
- IF Freddy Galvis: A few days after being demoted to AAA for lackluster offense, IF Galvis sustained a broken clavicle the other day on a play at the plate. He will require major surgery to repair it and will miss 6-8 weeks at least. Cesar Hernandez had been recalled from AA Reading and has a much-improved defense.
- 1B-LF Darin Ruf (oblique): He will continue to rehab in AAA now and will be activated when his bat is hot & glove is ok. No need to rush him, especially considering what happened with Galvis.
- P Ethan Martin (shoulder): He is also rehabbing with AAA and will be in the bullpen this year.
- P Miguel Gonzalez (shoulder): He is rehabbing in extended spring games and remains on the 60-Day DL.
- Braves (22-16)
- Nats (20-19) - 2.5 gms back
- Marlins (20-20) & Mets (19-19) - 3.0 gms back
- PHILLIES (17-21) - 5.0 gms back
Analysis:
The bullpen is killing this team. It looks like the Phillies need another arm there ,especially after three players were unavailable Sunday and Bastardo can't seem to get it done. This is the top area of concern for the team. Defense is starting to suffer again with Revere & Asche as the recent culprits, although the team overall has been doing a lot better than the first 14 games. Fortifying the bench is also necessary, but it'd say the bullpen is the most critical. Offense continues to do well getting on-base but struggles to hit with men on. Many players are now in the midst of slumps, but are doing better than last year. Starting pitching is solid, although the team's overall sub-.500 performance seems to be carrying a bit more weight in the minds of the starting 5. It continues to look like the Phillies are not contenders this year and will have to sell in July.
Next up: A day off tomorrow, then three vs. Reds, then a day off & three @ Miami, and then 11 games at home thru June 2.
Next entry: Looks like I'll do one after the Dodgers series (5/23-5/25).
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Current Standings: Tight NL East Race as Braves Slip
NL East:
- Nats (18-14)
- Braves (17-14) - 0.5 gm back (lost seven straight)
- Marlins (17-15) - 1.0 gm back
- Mets (16-15) - 1.5 gms back
- PHILLIES (15-15) - 2.0 gms back
- Rockies (20-14) - 1.5-gm advantage
- Braves (17-14) & Dodgers (18-15)
- Marlins (17-15) - 0.5 gm back
- Mets (16-15) & Cards (17-16) - 1.0 gm back
- PHILLIES (15-15) - 1.5 gms back
- Reds (15-16) - 2.0 gms back
- Padres (15-18) - 3.0 gms back
- Pirates (12-20) & Cubs (11-19) - 5.5 gms back
- D'Backs (11-24) - 8.0 gms back
- Rangers (17-15) - 0.5-gm advantage
- O's (15-14), Angels (16-15), & Yankees (16-15)
- Twins & Mariners (both sitting at 15-15) - 0.5 gm back
- White Sox (16-17) - 1.0 gm back
- Red Sox, Rays, & Blue Jays (all are at 15-17) - 1.5 gms back
- Royals (14-17) - 2.0 gms back
- Indians (13-19) - 3.5 gms back
- Astros (10-22) - 6.5 gms back
Sunday, April 27, 2014
4/27 - Good Road Record
Phillies ended their west coast road trip with a 6-4 record (1-2 vs. Rockies; 3-1 vs. Dodgers; and 2-1 vs. D'backs) to bring their overall road record to 9-7. They are now 13-12 this season - 4th in NL East (4.5 games behind Braves) and one game back of the 2nd Wild Card - and fully healthy after activating Hamels on Wed. the 23rd. Things are looking up, but they definitely showed inconsistencies this year in all facets of the game: offense, pitching & defense... although pitching & defense have improved since the 15th. They have a day off tomorrow and then play the Mets in a two-game set at home. A day off precedes three games vs. the Nats and a four-game home-and-home series with the Blue Jays. A sweep of the Mets will be key here as they are 2nd in the NL east & represent the 2nd wild card.
Other notes:
Other notes:
- The Phillies play 28 games from 5/2 to 6/1; 27 games 6/3 to 6/29; and 13 games from 7/1 to the All-Star Break
- The All-Star & HR Derby ballots are now available
- Injury update: Ethan Martin (shoulder) pitched to Darin Ruf (oblique) the other day.
- Ryan Howard did not hit for the cycle as Joe Torre did not approve the Phillies' request to have the 1B & E9 overturned.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
4/15/14: Two Weeks In
NL East Standings:
Defense has been horrible this year. They are tied for last in majors in fielding pctg (.972) & errors (14), and have given up 12 unearned runs in 13 games. The team was ok in spring training, so it stands to reason that the law of averages will kick in as the season goes on and as the team gets more chances. Concern: 8/10
The offense has been tremendous in areas in which the team has done poorly in past seasons. They are putting runners on at a tremendous clip yet are struggling (a bit) to score them. Stats:
The starting pitching has been troublesome (6 Quality Starts, 4.05 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 7.51 K/9, 3.69 BB/9), but the bullpen has been even worst (5.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.91 K/9, 4.28 BB/9, 1.85 K/BB, 3 BS). With bounce-back outings from a few of its guys, Adams activated and Hamels on the way, the Phillies look to improve in this area soon. Until then, it looks like high-scoring games resulting in more losses than wins will be the norm this season. Concern: 7/10
Schedule (April): 3 vs. Braves; West Coast Trip: 3 @ Rockies, 4 @ Dodgers, 3 @ D'Backs; Off on 28th; then, 2 vs. Mets at home.
Proposed April Record: 16-12 or better -AND/ OR- less than 3.0 games back. They split the Braves series (2-2), go 6-4 out west, and sweep the Mets.
- Atlanta Braves (9-4)
- Wash. Nationals (8-5, 1.0 GB)
- Phila. Phillies & NY Mets (6-7, 3.0 GB)
- Miami Marlins (5-9, 4.5 GB)
- P A.J. Burnett (hernia) - will undergo off-season surgery
- OF Ben Revere (sore ribs) - available to play
- IF-OF Freddy Galvis (15-Day DL, MRSA) - activated Friday
- P Mike Adams (15-Day DL, shoulder) - activated Today
- P Cole Hamels (15-Day DL, shoulder) - set to return c. 4/22 or 4/27
- OF-1B Darin Ruf (15-Day DL, oblique) - to begin baseball activities this week
- P Jon Pettibone (shoulder trouble in S.T.) - made spot start on Saturday
- P Miguel Gonzalez (60-Day DL, shoulder) - rehabbing in minors
- P Ethan Martin (15-Day DL, shoulder) - no update
Defense has been horrible this year. They are tied for last in majors in fielding pctg (.972) & errors (14), and have given up 12 unearned runs in 13 games. The team was ok in spring training, so it stands to reason that the law of averages will kick in as the season goes on and as the team gets more chances. Concern: 8/10
The offense has been tremendous in areas in which the team has done poorly in past seasons. They are putting runners on at a tremendous clip yet are struggling (a bit) to score them. Stats:
- .351 OBP (1st in NL, 2nd in MLB)
- .273 AVG (3rd in NL, 5th in MLB)
- .420 SLG (6th in NL, 9th in MLB)
- .771 OPS (4th in NL, 5th in MLB)
- 2000 pitches seen (7th-most in majors & 4th-most in NL)
- 153.8 pitches per game (140.7 last year)
- 3.88 pitches per PA (3.79 in 2013)
- 39.7 plate appearances (PA) per game (37.1 last year)
- .279 AVG w/ RISP (.252 last year)
- 4.77 RPG (3.77 in 2013)
The starting pitching has been troublesome (6 Quality Starts, 4.05 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 7.51 K/9, 3.69 BB/9), but the bullpen has been even worst (5.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.91 K/9, 4.28 BB/9, 1.85 K/BB, 3 BS). With bounce-back outings from a few of its guys, Adams activated and Hamels on the way, the Phillies look to improve in this area soon. Until then, it looks like high-scoring games resulting in more losses than wins will be the norm this season. Concern: 7/10
Schedule (April): 3 vs. Braves; West Coast Trip: 3 @ Rockies, 4 @ Dodgers, 3 @ D'Backs; Off on 28th; then, 2 vs. Mets at home.
Proposed April Record: 16-12 or better -AND/ OR- less than 3.0 games back. They split the Braves series (2-2), go 6-4 out west, and sweep the Mets.
Tuesday, April 1, 2014
Recap: Opening Day
Wow... what a slug-fest for both teams! Opening Day certainly seems to favor the offense against a team's ace, probably because managers put the "everyday line-up" out there to perform. Well, it looks like both offenses were successful, but the Phillies came out on top 14-10. Every Phillie had reached base safely and each was responsible for at least one run (either an RBI or a R scored). Here's the box score:
Team LOB: 9
Team AVG: .386 (.412 w/ RISP)
Team OBP: .460
Team SLG: .659
Team OPS: 1.119
So, what does this mean for the rest of the season? Well, I hate to go on one game, but opening day is said to foreshadow the rest of the season (or something along those lines). So, this means that if these guys are healthy and produce, the Phillies will CERTAINLY contend throughout the year.
Next Up: Today @ 8:05 PM EDT (7:05 PM CDT) - Burnett @ Perez
- Revere: 3-6, 2 R, 3 RBI, SB, K
- Rollins: 1-6, GS HR (200th career HR), 4 RBI, R, K
- 14th consecutive O.D. start at SS for same team (NL record; ties MLB record - Ripken, Jr.)
- Utley: 3-6, 2B, RBI
- Howard: 2-5, BB, R, 3 K
- Byrd: 2-6, HR, RBI, R, K
- Brown: 1-5, SB, R, K
- Ruiz: 1-3, 2 BB, 3 R
- Asche: 3-4, BB, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 4 R
- Gwynn, Jr.: 0-1, BB, R, K
- Mayberry, Jr.: 1-2, 2 RBI, 2B
Team LOB: 9
Team AVG: .386 (.412 w/ RISP)
Team OBP: .460
Team SLG: .659
Team OPS: 1.119
- Lee: W, 5 IP, 11 H, 8 R (all earned, ties career high), BB, K, HR
- Diekman: 1+ IP, H, 2 R (all earned), BB, 2 K
- Rosenberg: 0.2 IP, 2 H, BB
- Bastardo: Hold, 1.1 IP, BB
- Papelbon: 1 IP, K (not a save situation)
So, what does this mean for the rest of the season? Well, I hate to go on one game, but opening day is said to foreshadow the rest of the season (or something along those lines). So, this means that if these guys are healthy and produce, the Phillies will CERTAINLY contend throughout the year.
Next Up: Today @ 8:05 PM EDT (7:05 PM CDT) - Burnett @ Perez
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