Spring Training Report I: 1st round of cuts and bad signs

We are halfway through Spring Training and we begin with the cuts as minor league camp opens up):

• Optioned: RHPs Mike Stutes (recovery from shoulder injuries) & Luis Garcia
• Non-roster invitees: OF Leandro Castro & C Sebastian Valle
• 40-Man Roster: OFs Aaron Alther & Kelly Dugan
• Potential DL Stints: Cole Hamels (tendinitis) & Mike Adams (surgery) due to shoulder injuries

Cole suffered a set-back in his recovery from off-season tendinitis preventing him from progressing to batting practice from bullpen sessions. He will be shut down (again) for about a week and a DL stint is all but certain for the $144MM lefty. This, of course, is not welcomed news, as the starting pitching depth has depleted; however, if Cole is able to make one or two Spring Training starts (minor or major league) without further set-backs, he should be on the team in mid-April. This leaves a rotation of Lee-Burnett-Kendrick-Hernandez out of camp until 4/13, when a five-man rotation is required (typical early-season off days). Then, if Hamels can't return, it will be three non-roster invitees competing for the 5th man, unless the Phillies sign someone else. Biddle will need to play in AAA even though I'd like to see him up here. Miguel Gonzalez is not doing well in games and will open the season in the minors. Let's hope Cole is back in mid-April.

These cuts, injuries, and development notes leave the Phillies with 48 in spring training (33 from the 40-man & 15 invitees) competing for 25 active spots although there are only about 7 spots open for the taking (1 starting pitcher for 4/13, 2-4 bullpen, & 2-3 bench). Fourteen are locks to make the 25-man and another 14 or so are competing for those ~7 spots. Should be an interesting three weeks.

Things are not off to a great start as far as Spring Training records go - only 1-2 wins in 6-8 games played. Now, a loosing record in ST is not always a bad omen for the regular season, but this team can ill-afford many bad signs given their age.

Right now, let's take the wait-and-see approach: perhaps things will be much brighter toward the end of March. But, I have a feeling my off-season predictions will be revised for worse come late March.

Have a great week everyone and Go Phillies!!!

2014 Predictions

BREAKING NEWS FROM EARLIER TODAY (posted 8:50 PM Wed. 2/12): We are only a few hours from the start of Spring Training, and I have two big news items to share. Cole Hamels had minor shoulder tendinitis in Dec. and could not begin his throwing program at the normal time. Therefore, he will not be in the Opening Week rotation. The Phillies and pitcher A.J. Burnett agreed to a one-year, $16MM deal, which means that after Hamels joins the rotation, it will have one less question mark than before. A.J. Burnett makes this team at least 2-4 wins better than it was yesterday.

Original Article (edited for flow, the Burnett signing, and Hamels' injury):

Well we're less than one week away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Florida and Arizona for Spring Training, so it's time to talk about how the Phillies look as we start off 2014. The Phillies may not have improved much through off-season acquisitions (before Burnett), but it is reasonable to assume that this team can contend as it stands now, especially if A.J. Burnett signs (it's a three-team race between the Os, Pirates, and Phillies). This team is more likely to contend now that Burnett joins the rotation. This is as long as everyone stays healthy and improves as I predict below.

So, last year, this team - again - dealt with more injuries, but that happened mainly in the 2nd half. They were contenders at the All-Star Break but those injuries and (to a lesser but big extent) poor performances in the 2nd trimester led to Manuel's firing in what I feel to be one of the most class-less moves ever, especially timing-wise. However, it is reasonable to assume that everyone will improve, especially now that Sandberg may not pencil post-30-year-olds into the line-up as often as Manuel did.

So, a good place to start is the "everyday" (120+ games) players:

• 1B Ryan Howard will bounce back from two consecutive injury-plagued seasons. He looks really good right now weight-wise. Still a bit heavy, but he appears lighter than he was last spring. We'll need to platoon him with Ruf/ Mayberry, but if Howard is healthy, then it stands to reason that he can mash 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. More on him later.
• 2B Chase Utley's knees did not land him on the DL last year and he led the team with a .284 AVG. If no other body parts hurt (like his oblique did last year), he will improve just by being on the field. He is one of the few players I have seen that does a bit of everything (plate discipline, running, fielding, etc.) successfully & consistently from day-to-day (Roy Halladay was another).
• SS Jimmy Rollins had the worst offensive season of his career last year. He's entering a contract year (has an option for 2015) and Sandberg did work some magic with the former Gold Glove SS late last year. Stands to reason that Rollins can bounce back offensively.
• 3B is pretty open, but Asche is the heavy favorite to start most games there. Frandsen is on the bench and Franco is a non-roster invitee & potential Sept. call-up. It'd be interesting to see what happens if both Franco and Asche do well in camp, but because Franco spent most of last year in AA while Asche was promoted in June, the latter will probably make at least 120 starts at 3B this year.
• CF Ben Revere lost the lead-off job in mid-April but revamped his game in early May and June. He was hitting .300-plus before the ankle injury. His bat was sorely missed in July, which was probably a big factor in the "July Slide" that led to Manuel's firing.
• RF Dom Brown was worth the wait: 27 HR & 82 RBI with injuries. With him hitting 5th or 6th behind bounce-back versions of Revere, Rollins, Utley and Howard in the line-up, you get two players each potentially hitting 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.
• As far as his development is concerned, keeping him up here on the bench a few years ago was, even then but especially in retrospect, bad for Brown. I'm glad the Phillies learned from that, although sometimes it's best to keep players up here like that. Deciding which one is like finding a needle in a haystack.
• The Phillies signed Marlon Byrd to be the 3rd OF behind Brown & Revere. Byrd bounced back last year after a rough 2012 campaign that included a 50-game ban for a controlled substance. In fact, he had the best (if not one of the best) season(s) of his career in 2013. Welcome back, Bryd. Time to see what you can do!
• C Carlos Ruiz may have been signed for one year too many, but getting him back was an "at all costs" move: the best defensive catcher on the market boosted by his good bat (and right-handedness). We expect him to do as well as he did last year.

Now for the rotation, bullpen, and bench.

• The rotation has two three sure locks (Lee and Burnett - plus Hamels in mid-April), a pretty certain lock in Kyle Kendrick, and then the competition for the 5th starter (4th and 5th starters while Hamels is out) looks like Roberto Hernandez, Miguel Gonzalez, & John Pettibone. Ethan Martin is more of a long reliever, but is a better spot-starter than Raul Valdes. Jesse Biddle is in camp as a non-roster invitee and is projected as a potential late-season call-up. Adam Morgan is out until August with surgery. Signing A.J. Burnett would be welcome with that many question marks behind Lee and Hamels... although, I'd say I'm content with the rotation as it currently stands.
• The bullpen is counting on bounce-back years from Pap (execution), Adams (injury), & Bastardo (suspension). Let's hope the success of 2013's last trimester (especially w/ Diekman and De Fratus) actually does carry over into 2014.
• The bench has a few locks: C Nieves, 3B Frandsen, and OF-1B Mayberry, Jr. It stands to reason that Bobby Abreu will be the 5th OF due to needing a left-handed bat off the bench. If the Phillies go with 12 pitchers (I mentioned a five-man rotation and five of the bullpen spots), it looks like Ruf may actually get to start the year in the majors, but it may be difficult if Sandberg wants more pitchers than hitters, which would put Ruf in AAA (see Inbox).
• I'd like to see Ruf up here all year. Yes, his OF defense is suspect, which cannot be ignored, and he strikes out a lot. However, he has a great work ethic and showed that he can be an effective bench player offensively. If used in a super-platoon role (400 PAs) with most innings at 1B defensively, I think he may have a very successful season.
• As I said before, I think Ryne will rest his elder players more than Manuel, which gives the bench more reps than the last few years. Thus, I think this year's bench could turn out be a formidable one.

With bounce-back seasons from an aging core and a new manager, it is hard to argue against the fact that the floor for this team is the 73 games they won last year, especially now that Burnett signed. Their age makes them slightly more likely to be spoilers come September, but with a lot of luck, I can see them winning 84-87 games, potentially good enough to win the 2nd wild card. Good luck, guys!

Grades - 2013 Review Pt. II

I am grading most individuals, but only four of the bullpen pieces.

Coaches

• Manuel: D+/C-
• Tenure (2005-13): B+/A-
• Sandberg (as 3B coach): C-/C
• Sandberg (as manager): B+
• Samuel (1B-3B): A
• Dubee (P): B+/A-
• Tenure (2005-13): A
• Nichols (BP): D+/C-
• Henderson (H): D+/C-
• Joyner (Assist. H-1B): C

Starting Rotation

• Hamels: B+/A- | Forget the W-L record!
• Halladay: D
• Lee: A-/A
• Kendrick: C+/B- | Good first half, injury could have affected him 2nd half.
• Lannan: D | Injury
• Pettibone: C-
• Cloyd: C
• Martin: C

These two would make great long men. Best of luck with Cleveland, Tyler!

• OVERALL: C/C+

The rotation did alright even with the injuries (a testament to good drafts a few years ago) while the bullpen was one of the biggest failures (see below), which is why I gave a favorable grade to Dubee since he's in charge of the starters and doesn't usually deal with the bullpen (only the long-men, if any). And in 2014, this rotation will probably see the debut of Biddle and Morgan. Lots to look forward to!

Bullpen

• Pap: B
• Adams: D
• Durbin: F
• Bastardo: F+/D-

The bullpen, almost dead last in the majors in the usual performance stats, was a major disaster and one of the main reasons for Manuel's firing. And it did so in fewer innings despite young starters and few complete games from the rotation's healthy veterans.

Let's break it down: Bastardo was suspended and he was performing so well - I guess we know why.... Pap's velocity was down, but his numbers were ok overall - maybe his elbow needs a "clean-up?". Adams really never got going, but it was not due to the off-season surgery. And Durbin was a signing that shouldn't have even happened. No-one performed as expected, especially during the middle of the season, but there were flashes of talent and effectiveness similar to late 2012, especially at the beginning and end of the year. If only people performed like they did late last year. OVERALL: D-

Looking ahead to 2014, if this bullpen is healthy & performs like it did late 2013 throughout 2014, then we could definitely contend. However, we said this exact same thing a year ago, so...

Everyday Players

• Chooch (C): B+ | After a regretful start to the year, Chooch really bounced back, earning a contract next year.
• Howard (1B): D | He needs to play like a $25MM-a-year player in 125-135 games. Otherwise, we should platoon him with Ruf in the 2nd half.
• Utley (2B): B+ | Only missed a month and it was not because of his knees, and he played to near-All-Star levels. Deserved the extension.
• Rollins (SS): C | What happened to his power?!!!
• M. Young (3B-1B): C+/B- | He filled his roles nicely while Asche finished developing.
• Brown (OF): A-/A | Patience is a virtue when it comes to young players and Brown is certainly the proof. Nearly 30 HRs & 80 RBIs playing mostly everyday is great production.
• Revere (CF): B+/A- (1st half); INC (2nd half) | Freak accidents are hard to predict in baseball and it is sad that Revere was playing so well at the time.
• D. Young (RF): D | What were you thinking, Rube? At least it was a cheap signing.
• OVERALL: C+/B-

There was good news and bad news and the injuries certainly didn't help. At least those who performed performed well and those that didn't perform are either no longer here or not here for long. Run support for Hamels would have been a nice touch, as well.

Bench

• Kratz (C): D+/C-
• Quintero (C): D+/C-
• Rupp (C): A

Back-up catchers were not performing to their usual standards, but they got us through Chooch's suspension and injury relatively unscathed (pun not intended). At least there's depth in the minors if Valle & Joseph bounce back.

• Asche (3B): A | Except for a slow start and slow finish offensively, Asche still set himself in good position for the 3B job. Could he be the "everyday third basemen" for the next 5-10 years? It certainly seems like it. And doesn't he look like Chase Utley out there?!
• Frandsen (IF): B+/A- | I'd say bring him back to platoon with Asche.
• Galvis (IF-OF): No grade
• Hernandez (2B-CF): No grade

These two certainly will make great bench players, especially after they take-up 3B & OF in winter ball.

• Ruf (1B-OF): B+/A- | Way to learn the corner OF spots, Darin! He doesn't strike me as a 600-PA guy (pun not intended, BTW), but 400 PAs playing three positions is certain to maximize his success next year.
• Mayberry (1B-OF): C | He passes, but he's now redundant given his age and platoon splits.
• OVERALL: B+/A-

Looks like the bench is set for next year with many of the same players as this year. I'm looking forward to this as long as Ryne gives these guys regular playing time... something Charlie should have done.

Rookies

I have graded these guys individually already, but feel it necessary to give the rookies an overall score. So, they get an "A-". Pettibone, Martin, Deikman, De Fratus, Asche, Ruf, Galvis, and Hernandez have certainly shown that they're ready for major league action. With Asche's slumps, Pettibone's injury, Martin's late-in-games ERA, and the young arms in the bullpen not performing to late-2012 levels... I decided to keep them below A/A+ criteria. Still, a 9/10 is a great score and it is my hope that there's some RoY votes for some of these guys.

TEAM SCORE: C-/D+

Well, a mid-year crash results in a losing record and a new manager, but things are looking up. Being healthy and performing up to expectations in 2014 should keep this team above the .500 mark.

Decisions - 2013 Review Pt. I

Well, the Phillies finish the year in 4th place (one game behind the Mets) in the NL East with a 73-89 record. Under Sandberg, they were 0-2 to start and 2-8 to finish, but ended up 20-22. We'll play the blame game and grade these guys later, but let's talk off-season moves.

The Phillies have two outgoing free agents whom they are likely to re-sign: P Roy Halladay (injured) & C Carlos Ruiz. Ah, the memories of that Perfect Game & post-season no-hitter are still fresh in my mind thanks to iTunes and this battery. Oh, how things change quickly in baseball.

Sorry, had a sentimental tangent there...

Next is the fact that Sandberg is here for three or four years but may have to start from scratch with the entire coaching staff as "free agent coaches." The list is long:

• P Rich Dubee
• BP Rod Nichols
• C Mick Billmeyer
• H Steve Henderson
• 1B/AH Wally Joyner
• 3B Juan Samuel

Once again, my thoughts on who to keep will come later. Let's move on.

Next up are the ten (10) - not four (4)... sorry - arbitration-eligible players:

1. Kendrick (RHS, shoulder), Bastardo (LHR, just reinstated from suspension), and OF Revere (ankle) are probably going to be tendered.
2. With Asche the main man at 3B, he'll need some relief (15 games next year). IF Kevin Frandsen may be tendered a contract since Galvis & Hernandez have no experience at 3B, despite their versatility. Speaking of which, they both will see time at 3B & in the OF during winter ball.
3. The six other players who are arbitration-eligible, but most likely non-tendered candidates (think Nate Schierhotz), are: P John Lannan* (knee), C Erik Kratz*, OF-1B John Mayberry* (Jr.), IF Peter Orr, P Zach Miner, and OFs Casper Wells & Roger Bernadina
• *Lannan's injury makes him non-tenderable despite ONE spot open in the rotation for a half-year; Kratz may be tendered, but Rupp has done well in limited action; and with Galvis, Hernandez & Ruf on the bench, Mayberry becomes redundant.

And to round off this entry, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention those who finished the year on the DL not fitting the above categories: 1B Ryan Howard and pitchers Jeremy Horst, John Pettibone, and Mike Adams.

I'll have a season recap (grades & injuries) along with me playing the GM in my next entry.

Revisiting Bold Predictions from 3/22

My bold predictions for this year have been terrible, but let' break them down one-by-one:

Phils lose Opening Day in a pitching duel between Hamels and Hudson. Score: 2-1 (a no-decision for Hamels). The Phillies did lose on Opening Day in a slug-fest with 12 combined runs scored.

Phils struggle in April, but do manage a 15-13 record in the month (not including the Indians game). Halladay struggles and defense is off to a slow start. Their April Record was 12-14. Halladay did struggle and eventually needed surgery to fix his shoulder.

Despite losing O.D. and struggling in April, the team still win 84-87 games this year; they do make the postseason, albeit as a wild-card. Well, this completely busted! 'Nuff said!

Brown wins a silver slugger award by hitting 25 HRs & 100+ RBIs. He falls just short of Gold Glove status while earning some MVP votes. One of the few bright spots in a lost season, Brown has emerged as the everyday left fielder. He has come a long way defensively and playing everyday has helped his offense. He's been dealing with an Achilles and his team is bad, limiting him to 80 RBIs and probably no MVP votes, but I'm sure he'll garner some SS & GG votes. I'd say this is a good prediction.

Hamels is - at the VERY least - in the top three in Cy Young voting with 19-21 wins, a 2.50 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, four CG, two shut-outs, which includes his first career no-hitter. Cole Hamels made numerous quality starts even when he was struggling in the first half of the season to a tune of a near-4.50 ERA, but has since put up a near-2.00 ERA. While this prediction has busted overall, let his season be more evidence that the win statistic is "outdated."

So, what's my overall score?

1. Opening Day: 45%
2. April: 45%
3. Overall Record: 0%
4. Brown: 85%
5. Hamels: 45%

Score: 220/500 =  44%

I also made a prediction after Biddle's 16-K performance in AA that he'd be promoted come Trade Deadline. Since no one was traded and Biddle struggled mid-year after an illness, he never got that promotion. Since he did well overall (I'd give him a B-), he'll get AAA next season and will be, at the very least, a Sept. call-up next year.

2014: A More Detailed Look at the Opening Day Roster

With the Phillies having virtually no chance at making the playoffs and also the signing of Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez now official at three (3) years, $12MM (reduced from 5-YR/ $48MM)... it is time to look at the 2014 Opening Day Roster a little more closely.

Pitching:

Rotation Candidates:

• LHP Cole Hamels ($22.5MM AAV)
• LHP Cliff Lee (if not traded, $24MM AAV)
• RHP Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez ($4MM AAV)
• RHP Kyle Kendrick (Last Yr. of Arbitration - est. $8MM)
• John Lannan (Last Yr. of Arbitration - est. $6.65MM)
• Free Agent (Halladay at $13.65MM) or for $500k...
• Tyler Cloyd - may not be on 40-man roster come Rule 5 Day
• John Pettibone
• Ethan Martin
• Adam Morgan
• Austin Wright
• Jesse Biddle - I project him to be called up in July.

Bullpen Locks:

• Closer Jon Papelbon (if not traded, $12.5MM AAV)
• RHP Mike Adams ($6-7MM)
• LHP Antonio Bastardo (Second Yr. of Arb. - est. $2.25MM)

Bullpen Candidates:
   *Except for a Free Agent LM/SS, $500k each

Righties:

• Long Man/ Spot Starter - Cloyd, Free Agent, or...
• Ethan Martin
• Austin Wright
• B.J. Rosenberg
• Justin De Fratus
• Michael Stutes
• Phillipe Aumont
• Nefi Ogando - Acquired from Red Sox in McDonald waiver deal. He'll be in A+ or AA in 2014.
• Luis Garcia
• Zach Miner
• J.C. Ramirez

Lefties:

• Jeremy Horst
• Jake Diekman
• Joe Savery
• Cesar Jimenez
• Rob Rasmussen - Acquired from  Dodgers in M. Young waiver deal.

Hitting:

Infielders:

• 1B Ryan Howard ($23MM)
• 2B Chase Utley ($15MM)
• SS Jimmy Rollins (unless traded, $11MM)
• 3B Cody Asche ($500k)
• Bench:
• Frandsen?
• SS-2B Freddy Galvis ($500k)
• 2B-CF Cesar Hernandez (< $500k)

Catchers:

• Primary Catcher (Chooch at $4MM?)
• Erik Kratz (First Year Arb. - est. $1-2MM)
• In Camp:
• Rupp
• Valle
• Joseph

Outfielders:

• LF-RF Domonic Brown ($525k)
• CF Ben Revere (First Yr. Arb. - est. $1-2MM)
• RF-LF-1B Darin Ruf ($515k)
• OF-1B John Mayberry, Jr. (First Yr. Arb. - est. $1-2MM)

Expenses:

• Front Office and Coaching Staff, 40-Man Roster Minor League Contracts, Insurance Premiums for long-term contracts, College Scholarships, etc.: > $12.5MM (this will be less than the beginning of this year due to Manuel's firing and another change in the coaching staff under the manager).

Needs:

• Primary Catcher
• Starting Rotation
• Bullpen Piece?
• Utility IF/OF that can play CF & 3B - could be a Rule 5 pick
• Depth signings (players signed to minor league deals with invites to Spring Camp).

Bottom Line:

They have $25MM to fill four to six roster spots despite having six players making $108MM AAV. Nice, huh?! Why the flexibility?

1. Players earning ML Min. (~$500k each): 7-10 ($3.5-5.0MM total)
2. Players in Arbitration: 6 ($23MM est. total)
3. Signings (prev. contracts & free agents) of < $10MM AAV each: Up to 5 players (> $15MM)
4. Luxury tax threshold rises to $189MM from $178MM.

Scenario: Chooch ($4MM) & Halladay ($13.7MM) re-signed, so we have ~$8MM for ~3 spots. That's still a lot of flexibility.

Next 2014-related entry:

I will probably have a post on line-up projections at some point soon. Hope you enjoy this breakdown!

Thursday Knick-Knacks

2014: Cuban P Miguel A. Gonzalez is owed $12MM AAV, so instead of $35MM left, the Phillies have only about $20MM left, but they may not re-sign Halladay ($15MM) or Chooch ($5MM), so that gives them $40MM to work with. So, the rotation is essentially full next year: Hamels, Lee, Gonzalez, Kendrick and #5, unless Lee is traded. Chase Utley's contract extension is reportedly going to be 2-YR/ $26MM with an option for 2016. For a two-year deal, the price is a hair high (I'd go with $22-24 million over two years), especially considering Utley missed time in 2011 & 2012 (knees). This gives the Phillies $27MM left to spend in Free Agency after spending $155MM on 19 players.

Congrats:

• 2008 Closer Brad "Lights-Out" Lidge on his retirement as a Phillie today... the ceremony will occur at 6:30 PM on Phillies.com and possibly on CSN/ PHL17.
• 2013 Wall of Fame Inductee Curt Schilling 
• Kyle Kendrick and his family on the birth of their son - 4:28 PM on July 31st

Tomorrow is the start of Alumni weekend and we will celebrate the Wall of Fame induction,  and the 20th anniversary of the 1993 NL Champions this weekend. Darren "Dutch" Dalton, 1993 Phils Catcher, will attend the ceremonies. He is currently recovering from brain surgery, which removed a malignant tumor. He is currently undergoing the usual cancer treatments to prevent recurrence & spreading. To send well wishes via Twitter/ Facebook, use the hashtag: #RightOnFightOn.

INJURY UPDATES:

• Mike Adams (right shoulder) will have surgery and miss Opening Day 2014, but I still include him in my luxury tax calculation for 2014.
• For tomorrow's Braves game, Cliff Lee (stiff neck) will not start: he's starting on Sunday. Ethan Martin, acquired in the July 2012 Shane Victorino trade, will make his ML debut Friday. Martin is 11-5 this year despite a 4.12 ERA and 4-2 with a near-2.00 ERA in his last 7 starts.
• Domonic Brown (concussion) is due back in a few days. He passed his concussion test yesterday, but as a precaution, he had to take it again today. He took 60 swings in the cage and may appear in a rehab game this weekend.
• Ryan Howard (knee) will likely not return until early September.