Thursday Knick-Knacks

2014: Cuban P Miguel A. Gonzalez is owed $12MM AAV, so instead of $35MM left, the Phillies have only about $20MM left, but they may not re-sign Halladay ($15MM) or Chooch ($5MM), so that gives them $40MM to work with. So, the rotation is essentially full next year: Hamels, Lee, Gonzalez, Kendrick and #5, unless Lee is traded. Chase Utley's contract extension is reportedly going to be 2-YR/ $26MM with an option for 2016. For a two-year deal, the price is a hair high (I'd go with $22-24 million over two years), especially considering Utley missed time in 2011 & 2012 (knees). This gives the Phillies $27MM left to spend in Free Agency after spending $155MM on 19 players.

Congrats:

• 2008 Closer Brad "Lights-Out" Lidge on his retirement as a Phillie today... the ceremony will occur at 6:30 PM on Phillies.com and possibly on CSN/ PHL17.
• 2013 Wall of Fame Inductee Curt Schilling 
• Kyle Kendrick and his family on the birth of their son - 4:28 PM on July 31st

Tomorrow is the start of Alumni weekend and we will celebrate the Wall of Fame induction,  and the 20th anniversary of the 1993 NL Champions this weekend. Darren "Dutch" Dalton, 1993 Phils Catcher, will attend the ceremonies. He is currently recovering from brain surgery, which removed a malignant tumor. He is currently undergoing the usual cancer treatments to prevent recurrence & spreading. To send well wishes via Twitter/ Facebook, use the hashtag: #RightOnFightOn.

INJURY UPDATES:

• Mike Adams (right shoulder) will have surgery and miss Opening Day 2014, but I still include him in my luxury tax calculation for 2014.
• For tomorrow's Braves game, Cliff Lee (stiff neck) will not start: he's starting on Sunday. Ethan Martin, acquired in the July 2012 Shane Victorino trade, will make his ML debut Friday. Martin is 11-5 this year despite a 4.12 ERA and 4-2 with a near-2.00 ERA in his last 7 starts.
• Domonic Brown (concussion) is due back in a few days. He passed his concussion test yesterday, but as a precaution, he had to take it again today. He took 60 swings in the cage and may appear in a rehab game this weekend.
• Ryan Howard (knee) will likely not return until early September.

Trade Deadline & 2014 "Hot Stove" Preview

DEADLINE UPDATE (8:47 am Wednesday): As more rumors fly, lefty ace Cliff Lee may actually be traded today. I'd say wait until July of 2014 when the Phils' top two pitching prospects Morgan & Biddle are ready for a call-up.

Also, Chase Utley may be resigned on a two-year deal with an opt. for 2016, thus taking him off the trade block.

UPDATE (12:56 pm Tuesday): Phillies call-up 3B Cody Asche from AAA after hitting .295 this year and .287 in the minors (equivalent of two full seasons). As speculated by many beat writers, this likely means that Michael Young will be traded shortly. If that happens by 4 PM on the 31st, Asche is expected to platoon with Kevin Frandsen for the rest of 2013.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: Well, with the team out of contention in 2013 after loosing eight straight games (their worst loosing streak since Sept. 2011 & worst road trip since 1995), it is time to look ahead to 2014.

The theme for next season: a lot of needs but tremendous payroll flexibility.

The Phillies have six players under contract ($99MM total), four Arbitration-Eligible players ($14MM expected salary), and will have at least seven (maybe 12) players making the ML Minimum ($3.6MM - three in the bullpen, Brown, Kratz, a 5th starter, & Asche at 3B (he'll make ~$490k)). Coaches & front office staff account for about $10-13MM toward the luxury tax calculation. So far, that's ~$130MM for 17 players.

Contracts:

• Papelbon: $12.5MM
• Adams: $6MM
• Hamels: $22.5MM
• Lee: $24MM
• Howard: $23MM
• Rollins: $11MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (2013 Salary):

• Kendrick: $4.5MM
• Bastardo:  $1.4MM
• Revere & Mayberry: $516k each

With the luxury tax threshold rising to $189MM... and $30MM spent on re-signing Chooch, Halladay & Utley on 1-or-2-year deals... the team has ~$35MM remaining to spend in free agency for five players: a starting pitcher (if Lee is traded), some bench players (an OF and a 3B to platoon w/ Asche are our biggest yet cheapest needs), and a lefty in the bullpen.

First-Half Grades

Starting Rotation: B

• Lee: A+
• KK: B+/A-
• Pettibone: B
• Hamels: C
• Cloyd: D+
• Lannan & Halladay: Incomplete

Bullpen: D+/F-

• Ramirez: A-/B+
• Savery: A
• Papelbon: B+
• Diekman: B-
• Bastardo: C+
• Aumont: C-/D+
• De Fratus: D
• Valdes: D
• Horst: D+
• Rosenberg: F
• Adams: Incomplete

Players:

• Howard: F+
• Utley: B-
• Rollins: C
• M. Young: C
• Brown: A+
• Revere: A-
• D. Young: D-
• All Catchers: Incomplete
• Bench: A-
• Defense: C-

KK: A-; Lee: A+; Pettibone: B; Hamels: C-; Lannan & Halladay: Inc.; Cloyd: D - See more at: http://philliesnation.com/archives/2013/07/phillies-nation-tv-grading-the-phillies-1st-half/#comments

KK: A-; Lee: A+; Pettibone: B; Hamels: C-; Lannan & Halladay: Inc.; Cloyd: D - See more at: http://philliesnation.com/archives/2013/07/phillies-nation-tv-grading-the-phillies-1st-half/#comments

Urgent News

I would like to extend my congratulations to Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown for his first-career "NL Player of the Week" honors. In the past week (six games since 5/21), Brown has 7 H in 22 AB (.318) with 8 RBIs, 4 R, 2 2Bs, a 3B, and 2 HRs for a .773 SLG. He has no walks or hit-by-pitches, but he has avoided the strike-out: 4 K's for a .389 BABIP (batting avg. on balls in play). His hot streak extends to May 20th (seven games), where he went 2-4: 1B, HR, RBI, R, SB in that game.

Since May 20, Brown is 9-26 (.346), 4 Ks (.409 BABIP, 15.4% K-rate), 3 1Bs, SB, 2 2Bs, 1 3B, 3 HRs, .846 SLG, 5 R, 9 RBIs, 1.192 OPS

Injury Updates: CF Ben Revere has no broken bones after his collision with the gate in yesterday's ball game. He may be sore for a few days, but he should be ok. Ryan Howard is taking his knee issues (swelling, soreness, cartilage issue and possible meniscus tear) day-to-day, but a DL stint is still possible... albeit not likely.

Tonight (7:05 PM EDT): Cliff Lee tries to replicate the 3 hit shutout he threw his last time out.

On a sadder note, I would like to extend my thoughts, prayers, and condolences to the family of orthopedist Dr. Lewis Yocum who passed away today. He most recently performed surgery on Halladay's right shoulder and was the Angels' team doctor.

Injury Updates & Today's Game

Sorry I haven't posted much, but here's a few updates:

• In the span of 24 hours at one point this week, the Phillies had a slew of injury updates: Chooch (Grade 2 Hamstring strain); Utley (Mild Grade 1 oblique strain); Howard (left knee swelling; meniscus issue, which may require off-season surgery); and Adams (sent to DL on 5/20... retroactive to 5/11, activated today).
• Obviously, we have an explanation for Halladay: arthroscopic surgery to clean up a bone spur, bone chip, frayed labrum & partial rotator cuff tear will sideline him until mid-to-late August (he'll be throwing in about 5-7 weeks from today). He was sent to the 60-day DL.
• Back to Chooch, it is obvious his .325 season last year was an Adderall fluke, but his defense has never been flukish as evidenced by 2010.

Game Preview: Phillies (24-25) at Nationals (25-24) - 1:35 PM EDT

Phillies ace Cole Hamels has essentially converted 1.0 K/9 to 1.0 BB/9 and has a partially skewed 1-7 record & 4.45 ERA. He is looking for more than the 2.8 runs of support the Phillies give him on average and was so frustrated, he didnt want to say something out of anger that he might regret, so he left the clubhouse after his last start. Perhaps the stress of having to be perfect each time out is a factor in the inflated ERA & BB rate and the deflated K rate. Let's hope Hamels gets three or more runs of support from the offense that is without Utley and Howard (DL and rest respectively) but has done better as of late.

Hamels will face Stephen Strasburg who is 2-5 with a respectable 2.66 ERA. The Nats also don't score a lot of runs, but Strasburg certainly helps himself out with the sub-3.00 ERA. Strasburg will face off against Charlie Manuel's line-up, who is batting .200 in their career against the Nats:

SS Rollins, 2B Galvis, 3B M. Young, RF D. Young, LF Brown, 1B Frandsen, CF Revere, C Quintero, P Hamels

Current score: 0-0 in the bottom of the first.

What is wrong with the Phillies?

The Phillies are 9-14 (.391), 4th in the East (7.0 games behind ATL) & 9th in the Wild Card race

The Good News:

• 139 games to go and the Phillies are a second-half team
• Roy Halladay
• First two starts: 7.1 IP, 15.21 ERA & K/9, 1.83 aWHIP*, 7.46 P/PA**
• Last three starts:  21.0 IP, 1.71 ERA, 0.62 aWHIP, 6.86 K/9, 3.83 P/PA

*aWHIP = (H - HR + BB + HBP) / IP
**P/PA = # pitches thrown / number of batters faced

• Carlos Ruiz returns on Sunday.
• Cole Hamels: 11.47-ERA in 10.2 IP in 1st two starts; 2.57 ERA in 21 IP in last three
• Team ERA minus Team RPG = 1, so lots of the games are close... on average
• Bastardo & Papelbon: 16.1 IP, 1.68 ERA, 0.56 aWHIP, 0.81 K/IP
• The Phillies are the best in the MLB in pinch-hits.
• M. Young just ended a 12-game hitting streak and is not a defensive liability at 3B (yet).
• Utley is healthy and hitting well.
• Kendrick has put together a lot of quality starts.

The Bad News:

• The Phillies must not dig themselves into too deep a hole: four below .500 come All-Star Break is the limit; they're five below .500 right now
• Cliff Lee is starting to struggle, blowing a lead yesterday and allowed 5 R on 7 H & 3 BB against the Cards
• The bullpen, except Bastardo & Papelbon, is under-performing
• Durbin has allowed 80% of his inherited runners to score
• It has a 7.32-8th-inning-ERA with five of the players having allowed at least two runs
• The team cannot walk, but can get on-base through hits
• Is Charlie Manuel's philosophy detrimental to the team here? As a whole? Will Sandberg fix it? Where have Joyner & Henderson been? What t** h*** have they been doing?
• Hitting with RISP is a big problem
• Utley's fielding has been abnormally abysmal.
• Howard has only two HRs this year, but he's never had a hot April, at least in the last few years.
• Catchers are struggling to hit, but are ok with the glove
• Brown hasn't brought much of his spring success into the reg. season

The Minor Leagues:

• Shout-out to AA Prospect (and 2010 1st round pick) Jesse Biddle for his 16-K, 7-inning performance in which he retired the 1st 19 batters faced & hit two doubles and scored a run
• He struck out 14 on 73 pitches in the first six innings!!!
• His performance with the bat looked like the 2011 version of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee
• Bold Prediction: he'll get a mid-season promotion to AAA come July 1. He already skipped Low-A ball in Lakewood, going right to High-A ball in Clearwater last year.
• Pettibone earned another start for the Phillies after a nice debut.
• Hot in AAA: 
• 3B Cody Asche: near-.300 AVG
• RHR De Fratus & LHR Savery: 19.2 IP, 0.94 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.09 K/ IP between them
• SP Adam Morgan: 24.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.04 aWHIP, 5.98 K/9

The Answer:

Could Sandberg be the answer? Right now, the answer is no. There are plenty of games to go for this typically second-half team. Obviously, the Phillies don't play ALL nine innings. I think the team's biggest problem is hitting: team OBP & team AVG with RISP. Don't be too aggressive... wait for your pitch & know your opposing pitchers' tendencies well (a.k.a. scouting)! A next biggest problem is the relief core, which is not much smaller than the hitting problems, especially because the 'pen has improved slightly because the starters' longevity increased.

However, this can be solved with a roster make-over:

1. D. Young (ankle) and Chooch (suspension) are close to returning
• Carrera will almost certainly be placed on waivers when D. Young returns
• Quintero is doing better than Kratz, but given Kratz's $400k contract and age & experience, he will likely stay on the active roster when Chooch returns
2. Some of the relievers must soon be send down: De Fratus & Savery are doing well in AAA while Aumont & Durbin struggle here in Philadephia

I don't think trading for prospects (or giving Roy Oswalt a job) is the way to go here -YET. But come mid-July, we must do something if the team is still struggling.

The Line-Up:

1. Please continue to split up lefties Utley and Howard, especially against a left-handed starter.
2. Put more righties into the line-up if possible (Mayberry is doing pretty well right now, getting Chooch back will help)
3. Have Revere hit 8th with Chooch 5th and Kratz/ Quintero 7th
4. Find another lead-off candidate besides Rollins and Revere... put J-Roll 3rd or 6th in the line-up sometimes. Could Laynce Nix be that candidate?

March 22nd Update

***THIS JUST IN (5:20 PM): Ruf sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley.***

Except for Roy Halladay and Chase Utley, things - for the most part - are looking good in camp. The biggest concern is Halladay who had struggled against the Tigers and was then pulled from his latest start after one inning due to illness. He's due to pitch in a minor league game tomorrow. As for Utley, his spring average has been low - a .227 average - but as long as he's healthy come Opening Day, I'm not concerned.

For the outfield, Revere and now Brown (YAY!!!) look to be locks with Nix and Mayberry filling out two of the last three spots. It is a competition between Rule 5 pick Ender Inciarte and today's walk-off hero, Darin Ruf. Even though Ruf has hit the ball well as of late, I still send him down with Inciarte the fifth outfielder, mostly because Ruf has options & doesn't play left field well. When D. Young returns from the DL in late-April, the Phils may have to offer Inciarte back to the D'Backs.

As for the relief core, Pap, Adams, Durbin, and Bastardo are, of course, locks to make the roster. Given (1) the Phils love Aumont and Horst and with Diekman & De Fratus sent down, it's between Stutes and Valdes, with the edge to Stutes despite Valdes' age. Given Charlie doesn't like situational pitching (a la J.C. Romero), Stutes wins the competition.

 - Speaking of  J.C. Romero, he just signed a minor league deal with the Nats with an invitation to camp. He'll likely start the year in AAA Syracuse as a "depth signing."

And a decision is impending on the infield, with the Phils seemingly leaning toward releasing Bentacourt. He's making it a tough decision for the Phils, who like Galvis' defense enough to keep him on the big-league roster. Frandsen is a lock to make the roster. The decision is due on Sunday around five o'clock (i.e. close of business).

No word yet on the catchers, but the April back-up job to Eric Kratz seems to be Quintero's job to lose.

Five Bold Predictions:

• Phils lose Opening Day in a pitching duel between Hamels and Hudson. Score: 2-1 (a no-decision for Hamels)
• Phils struggle in April, but do manage a 15-13 record in the month (not including the Indians game). Halladay struggles and defense is off to a slow start.
• Despite losing O.D. and struggling in April, the team still win 84-87 games this year; they do make the postseason, albeit as a wild-card.
• Brown wins a silver slugger award by hitting 25 HRs & 100+ RBIs. He falls just short of Gold Glove status while earning some MVP votes.
• Hamels is - at the VERY least - in the top three in Cy Young voting with 19-21 wins, a 2.50 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, four CG, two shut-outs, which includes his first career no-hitter.