Welcome to opening day!!! Baseball is here and the Phillies
look to contend again. They won 80 (it was an ugly road at the end) and
improvements + use of a few what ifs look to get them to 87, probably 90-94. I
started this entry about two weeks ago with the question, “Is this a
make-or-break year for everyone on the roster?” However, this turned into more
of a season preview as I expanded and edited. The answer to my initial question
is: not everyone but the roster is becoming expensive. Arbitration, extensions,
guys entering free agency soon (bullpen & Arietta) and a logjam of
outfielders put almost everyone on the roster on alert. What will get them to below
87 or above 89? I have concluded that the rotation will be the biggest factor
in determining success in combination with how Gabe Kapler manages games.
Rotation
Last year, the starting pitchers ruled the roost during
the first five months. The team won most of the first 60 games and they
recovered nicely after being swept out of San Francisco: with three consecutive
series wins (6-3 record) against the tough NL Central. All of that was thanks
to the rotation keeping them in games, especially after a late-April change to
the back-end. Of course, Nola’s lasted all of 2019 and received third place in
Cy Young voting. Behind Nola’s curve & control, Arietta did very until his
knee started hurting. He and IF C. Hernandez played with an injury, and while
that’s admirable, I prefer these guys hit the DL & heal than play thru it
& be less or in-effective as a result. (Side note: If I later say something
to the contrary, please redirect me here). Back to Arietta… he must last
through the year as he’s due to get a third year if he’s effective.
Eflin will join Velasquez’s four-seamer and Pivetta’s
curve to round out the rotation. They all had either break-out performances or
seasons in the past and this is the last year they get to prove whether they
stick. Arbitration is coming. And all of them - and most of the bullpen, too -
are right-handed pitchers. If they’re effective, it’s no big deal. Last year
thru mid-Aug, they were just that: 3.70 ERA thru 8/12 ranked 7th but
their 4.19 ERA since ranked 17th in those respective spans. A lefty
to help keep opposing hitters off-balance would probably have led to another
1-3 wins during that late-year skid plus another 4-6 during the 1st
four months, which is why the Phillies pursued those guys.
Defense & Gabe
Helping the pitchers will be better fielding performances
and those will lead to better [defensive] decisions by Kapler & the staff.
No one will be happier about that than Jake Arietta (lol!) if that becomes the
case. The micromanaging of the line-up, pitching changes, substitutions, and
defensive alignment was due, in part, to poor performance overall, except in some
cases, including Nola being pulled on O.D. With Gabe, I hope “old habits die hard”
doesn’t apply in the case of better performance. If he relies more on the eye
test than he did last year, my hope will probably come to fruition, assuming
better performances play out.
Relievers
Most of these guys are in their early arbitration or last
year of free agent deals. Most tired up down the stretch due to Gabe’s constant
changes. I see more veterans already & expectations from Gabe are now established,
so that should help. But I really think Gabe was more of a factor than
performances. And a related side note, I personally am sick and tired of all
the pitching changes & playing match-ups throughout baseball. I approve of
the soon-to-be-implemented pitchers-facing-2-3-plus-batters rule. For the
Phillies, MLB.com considers the bullpen a top-ten in the majors.
Pitching
In conclusion, this is probably the area the Phillies
will improve on in July as the trade deadline approaches either Keuchel,
Kimbrel or trade for a lefty. The team doesn’t have too much room to play with
before hitting the competitive balance (i.e. luxury) tax.
Hitting
The balance in the line-up between sluggers, hitters and
on-base guys was already much improved with the additions before landing
Harper. The 1-2 punch with him and Hoskins has already demonstrated its danger
to opposing pitchers and managers. That combo could yield over 75-85 HRs! And I
speak for most Phillies fans, team personnel and Harper himself in hoping that
Bryce gets off to a good start in year 1 of his 13-year deal. Segura &
Realmuto are now into arbitration with extensions likely forthcoming and both
are contact hitters. McCutchen can hit or get on base, so he could see time
anywhere in the line-up. Now, he’s not blocking anyone on the 40-man roster offensively
or defensively like Santana did, but Andrew does need to perform or he may be
traded – Herrera, Cousins, Quinn and Williams have skills the Phillies would
like to utilize. MLB.com also shares this line of thinking, good balance this
year compared to mostly on-base guys last year… ranking the Phillies a top-ten
offense.
It is the improvement here and coin-flip probabilities in
the rotation’s potential (thanks to only Nola proven and Arietta being a
veteran) that leads me to list them as the main factor in determining this
year’s success. Gabe is also a factor (could be equal, more or less – depends on
his in-game moves) but I think good performances will result in less strategy. Go
Phillies!
