On Machado, Harper, Arietta and free agency

Manny Machado will spend at least the first two years of his potential HoF career out of the postseason, but the now former Oriole is used to that and now makes just over $1.15MM per paycheck. Harper is still unsigned and the rumors continue to swirl - now it's the Dodgers getting [back?] in on the action. I think he gets to the Phillies for 33MM/ yr over probably ten years but lots of details still in the works. Last year at this time, Jake Arietta signed for what could be 3 yr/ $75MM instead of 7 yr/ $120MM+. Alex Rodriguez recently chimed in on the long free agency and Cardinals Pitcher Adam Wainwright fears a mid-season walk-out.

On negotiations with Harper

I'd go with $32.5MM AAV for nine years (age 26-34) with opt-out after five years. If he decides to stay, he gets $5MM, and then then the options: $25MM or $5MM buyout at 550 PAs last year (or 475 & 625 PAs last two years) or $20MM mutual option at lesser amt of PAs. Boras is trying to get a 3-yr opt out and that actually may work in the Phillies favor long term: age 29-31 seasons may be the only time we contend. If we get Trout (unlikely but not rare either), we could contend longer - great bargaining chip to use on Harper and we then have two star outfielders (both former first-round picks BTW) for 2022. Harper & Trout in their primes together for at least 2 years. If we don't get Trout, we could still renegotiate with Harper or let him walk (we must be developing - cannot have a repeat of 2012-2017). In the former case, I am reminded of A-Rod's 10-yr/ $275MM contract, but that time, we'll probably do another opt-out after 3 years. At least, that's what I'd offer. In all likelihood, I'll be fine with 10-11 guaranteed with a player opt-out and the 25/20/5 option for one (maybe 2) years after the end of deal. Mutual buyout after 6 years could also work. I think both sides will be happy money & options/ opt-outs wise.

On CBA, free agency and player payment

Let's ignore that these star players make too much already and talk about how much control teams have for most in their primes (6 years before free agency) and how arbitration undervalues many of these players. Too much control, too much undervalue (look at Nola's recent negotiations) when these players would make 2-3 times as much on the free agent market. In my humble opinion, I'd favor one less year of control and arbitration a year earlier (so an avg of 1.5-2 yr of ML minimum instead of 2.5-3 yr) in exchange for signing deadline: Teams must submit proposal (options, opt-outs, and base salary - obviously would be based on negotiations) to FAs & MLB office by 4:30 PM ET 2/10 and the players must pick (sign offer sheet) and notify team & MLB by 1:30 PM ET 2/14. They could sign sooner, but once they do, a physical must be performed by 2:30 PM ET (submit results or certificate of completion to MLB by 4:30 PM that day) the 3rd day (e.g. sign 2/14, physical due 2/17; sign 2/11, physical due 2/14). Quite frankly, I'm getting tired of all the back and forth from teams on Harper.

On the possible lockout?

I do not think the players will walk out this year but sometime next year if more star FAs are unsigned in February, expect a strike that year.

If any news comes of Harper or any renegotiations of CBA, I'll provide an opinion. Enjoy the games!

Right before Spring Training

With the latest news of the trade for Realmuto & signing Nola to an extension and workouts beginning soon, the Phillies' offseason has officially ended - wait... What about Harper or Machado or others discussed in the media? They are now going to be like Arrieta last year - Spring signees.

Moves:

Phillies got OF McCutchen, C Realmuto, SS Segura and agreed to arbitration with - I think it was - 10+ players (including the deal with Nola - effectively $6MM this year with base + bonus and $8MM in second year makes this team friendly) and they did submit offers to the top free agents (reports are that the offers from all teams were much lower than expected but no specifics given) - we just have to wait. No left-handed starter nor additional bullpen help. However, they could still sign some folks in the early part of S.T., and they still have Hunter & Nicaso in the 2nd year of deals. They sent a few guys over in those trades - most notably Santana for Segura, allowing a better defense with Hoskins at 1B. Good depth in outfield and some depth at infield (either one could drastically improve/ trade of some of the arb players may be required if they sign Harper or Machado). Lots of names in the pitching category - quantity > quality this year. Not much depth at catcher with Alfaro gone but Knapp here.

Summary: Machado's comments haven't been well-received in Philly but at least we know going in... I'd welcome either of the two. Realmuto, Segura and even McCutchen give us hitters... walking is nice but hits are what drive in those runners. We didn't get a lefty starter or more outside bullpen help but the latter may still occur. This was a good off-season. Grade: B-. If we sign more, I'll revise the grade in another post.

Prospects:

They had to send over P prospect Sixto Sanchez for Realmuto so we'll see how that plays out in coming years. The Phillies publicly put the 20-year-old's work routine down, so if you're not going to be a bit more classy, then send him off - best of luck, Sixto! While we drafted well and Lehigh Valley ended last year with a .600 winning percentage, I don't see many call-ups that can help. Non-roster invitees and those on the 40-man are it for our internal depth - only Kimbrel, Moustakas, Harper and Machado can change the look.

Predicting the record:

This is a tough one without Harper or Machado. Let's try it:

• Rough end to last year -> not the lessons to learn but it was never about getting to the playoffs last year. They should avoid a long stretch of constant loosing. No effect.
• Schedule -> bit tougher this year but they did win in the third month last year, which was a great test against the NL Central. Little to no effect expected.
• Defense -> it was ugly last year and much improved this year but performance-wise despite Arietta & "shift-gate" but not much effect this year (half a game improvement)
  
  So far, we've added maybe a win.
  
  
• Rotation -> We don't have the depth to last the year if we have a lot of injuries. Assuming Nola & Arrieta (knee issue) perform on par with or better than last year and two of the next three spots get us through the 6th inning, we'll be ok. Let's subtract a half-win to account for low depth.
• Bullpen -> Add a win to account for decent depth. Pitching overall is +0.5 wins but could be +2 wins if the rotation performs like much of last year in terms of low injury count and high reliability from the younger starters.
• Offense -> we have a more balanced approach with Segura, McCutchen, Realmuto and Hoskins able to hit and improved play from Kingery vs Franco and OBP guys Hernandez (broken ankle most of last year) and Herrera. Depth here could change but right now, add four wins (Moustakas adds one (1) win and if we add Harper or Machado, add 2.5 to 3.5 wins).
  
  So far +5.5 wins (84-86 wins and 76-78 losses)
  
• Kapler -> if he didn't do the micromanaging moves last year, we'd be mathematically viable til game ~160 last year. Some moves were justified but most were not and if that's the case this year, we're in for a rough ride. This will be the secondary deciding factor.

It looks like we have two camps depending on Kapler and each camp has up to 5 wins of variability due to Klentak. Best-case could be 99 wins but that's a huge jump. I'd say our ceiling with Mach. or Harper, good Gabe and depth lasting the year is 94 wins. Our floor is 79 without Mach or Harper, depth doesn't last, and Gabe is bad but the likelihood of progression from most guys puts our floor at 82-80 and our most likely to be 84-88 with inside track on 90. My call: 84-78. I will revise in the aforementioned separate post as signings occur and the roster takes shape.